Thread by @UmlandAndreas

THREAD: Could #VladimirPutin repeat the 1999 apartment bombings scenario in 2022? /1
#UkraineRussiaWar #Ukrainekrieg #nuclearwar #nuclearattack #WarInUkraine #RussiaUkraineWar #Putin #War_in_Ukraine #UkraineWar
#atomkrieg #RussiaisATerroistState

One of the possible escalation scenarios in the next weeks or months is a repetition, on larger scale, of the 1999 apartment bombings that brought #Putin his first presidency in 2000-2004. /2

In September 1999, the #FSB blew up four residential buildings in #Moscow, #Volgodonsk and #Buinaksk thereby killing about 300 #Russian civilians. /3

After blaming North Caucasian terrorists for the vicious acts, the until then unknown, recently appointed Russian prime minister #VladimirPutin launches the #SecondChechenWar. /4

Within a few weeks, Putin becomes #Russia's most popular politician widely admired for his decisiveness and manliness. A similar scenario, on a larger scale, may be awaiting us now. /5

The first atomic bomb in a possible Russian nuclear war against #Ukraine may blow up not in Kyiv-controlled, but in Moscow-controlled territory. It may kill, like in 1999, many Russian citizens. /6

This time, such a diversion operation could demand not hundreds, but thousands or even tens of thousands of victims. The first explosion or another mass murderous incident may this time not happen in Russia itself, but in #Ukrainian territories recently annexed by #Russia. /7

After a seeming #WMD attack on #GreaterRussia, the Kremlin blames #Ukraine for #nuclear, #chemical or #biological escalation. Like in 1999, the Russian population rallies around the flag, and supports resolute retaliation by Moscow and harsh punishment of the attacking people. /8

Against the background of widespread outrage, Putin becomes politically free to use #weapons of mass destruction against #Ukraine. He starts a scorched earth campaign in Ukraine partly similar to the one in #Chechnia thirty-three years ago, but this time using #WMDs. /9

Like in 1999 and after, he is celebrated, in Russia, as a resolute revenger of innocent Russian victims killed in a vicious attack by unthankful people of the glorious former empire. /END

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