Thread: 5 October 2022: Day 224 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Ukraine is advancing on both the north-east front, bearing down on the Luhansk Oblast that #Russia claimed to annex on Sept. 30, and on the southern front in Kherson.
Map of #Ukraine's recent advances, liberating a swath of territory in the southern #Kherson Oblast from #Russia's occupation.
Brief video report from #Lyman, a town in northern Donetsk Oblast that was recently liberated by #Ukraine. The population is now free from terror. The grim scenes on the edge of town, with #Russian soldiers dead along the road, are being cleaned up. washingtonpost.com/video/politics…
Alexey @Navalny argues for the West to be thinking about post-war #Russia to ensure the cycle over #Ukraine doesn't simply restart; suggests calibrating policies like lifting sanctions towards shaping a parliamentary democracy in Russia. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
#pt: Navalny: "while I commend European leaders for their ongoing success in supporting Ukraine, I urge them not to lose sight of the fundamental causes of war. The threat to peace ... in Europe is aggressive imperial authoritarianism, endlessly inflicted by Russia upon itself."
#pt: Navalny notes that Western leaders "have been defeated and lost ground due to their support for one war or another. In Russia, there is simply no such thing. Here, war is always about profit and success." Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, Syria: all furnished the same lesson.
#pt: Navalny notes that while #Ukraine is central to imperial-minded #Russians, "jealousy of Ukraine" is far more widespread in post-Soviet Russia: Russians saw Ukraine—with less resources and less external help—have an even worse 1990s, and then rise above Russia anyway.
Much of #Iran's drone program traces back to the #US drone brought down there in 2011.
Elon Musk tripling down and making the less innocent explanations look like the right ones: first, pushing #Russia's current favoured political-military strategy (a "ceasefire") and now framing the invasion of #Ukraine as a "civil war".
#pt: Telling that Elon Musk used the 2012 #Ukraine electoral map, rather than the 2019 one that brought Zelensky to power, but his framing of "pro-Russian" Ukrainians as being in favour of #Russia's invasion and secession was exactly the mistake Putin made
Thread: 4 October 2022: Day 223 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: on Sept. 30, #Putin signed the regular annual conscription order; these recruits are not "legally" allowed to be deployed outside of #Russia, unlike those conscripted under the mobilisation order of Sept. 21. Training, equipping, etc. all a struggle.
This is a terribly depressing thread on @WarintheFuture's latest article, showing that there is much less than meets the eye to #Australia's support for #Ukraine.
Thread: 3 October 2022: Day 222 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Putin publicly said on Sept. 29 that there were issues with the mobilisation he ordered on Sept. 21. This "unusually rapid acknowledged of problems highlights the dysfunction": the scope is unclear to lower officials and training perfunctory at best.
Thread: 30 September 2022: Day 219 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Putin's "annexation" announcement today will, it seems, occur in the shadow of #Ukraine taking back territories that are being claimed as new parts of #Russia.
Thread: 22 September 2022: Day 211 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: focuses on the announced #Russian "partial mobilisation" yesterday, doubts Moscow can raise 300,000 troops, and notes the "considerable political risk" to #Putin of trying to regenerate manpower for the war on #Ukraine in this way.
Thread: 21 September 2022: Day 210 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
The former rector of the Moscow Aviation Institute, Anatoly Gerashchenko, had a "tragic accident" on Sept. 21, he "fell" - indeed, "flew" - down several flights of stairs and "received injuries incompatible with life". moscow-post.su/news/society/b…
#Putin's delayed speech, delivered this morning, rambled through the war being necessary to stop #Ukraine having nukes, #NATO running Kiev's army and refusing peace, Novorossiya, neo-Nazis, and annexing the Donbas, to announce partial mobilisation.
Thread: 20 September 2022: Day 209 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Russia "officially" preparing to "annex" the Donbas in eastern #Ukraine.
Should be noted, the Russians had such plans in Kherson and Kharkiv, which were derailed by the Ukrainian guerrillas before the Army liberated Kharkiv.
Imprisoned #Russian oppositionist Alexey Navalny comments on that video of Yevgeny Prigozhin recruiting prisoners for the war on #Ukraine. Sees it as a clear sign of the disintegration of the Army and notes such recruits can only make it worse.