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Oct 15 • 4 tweets • 7 min read
THREAD: An intriguing appointment
1. Russia's new commander of the so-called special military operation in #Ukraine, #SergeySurovikin, led at Moscow in August 1991 a military unit bloodily defending a #Soviet imperialist usurpation to preserve the empire.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Su…
2. His harshness (#Russian: #surovost') saved, however, neither the 1991 coup nor the #USSR. Rather, it hastened the #Soviet #collapse that year. Chances are that #Surovikin may now accomplish the same bloody trick for #Putin's #neoimperial project and the #RussianFederation.
3. #GeneralSurovikin may one day enter history books as the man who unintentionally destroyed two empires.
@SCEEUS_UI @Konflikt_Sicher @GSPSipo @TerekMedia @ictopyk @RusVerstehen @LawUkrainian @russia_matters @4freerussia_org @freerussiahouse @freerusinst @InModernRussia #Russia
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More from @UmlandAndreas

Andreas Umland Profile picture
Oct 10
Are the #Ukrainians really THAT good? - A thread:
1./ This is the second time that #Ukraine's security services have, according to the #Kremlin's narrative, performed a miracle:
2./ On 20 August, they exploded a bomb killing Daria Dugina in the Odintsovsky District where Putin's residence Novo-Ogariovo is located. On 8 October, they blew up a truck loaded with explosives on the Kerch Strait Bridge, one of the world's most well-protected infrastructures.
3./ After almost a quarter of a century under Putin's reign, the FSB was, according to this story, not able to prevent either of these two daring Ukrainian actions, at a time when Russia wages a war of annihilation against Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Oct 6
Who killed #Dugin's daughter?
The version of @iponomarev that a left wing #Russian terrorist group did the assassination of #DariaDugina (in case it actually happened, as reported) is more plausible. /1
nytimes.com/2022/10/05/us/…
The #Ukrainian security services have other things to do these days than risking the life of their agents by assassinating #Russian uncivil society activists in Moscow. /2
The #Dugin family was and is a non-trivial public actor, but constitutes an intellectual rather than physical target for #Ukraine. /END
@Konflikt_Sicher @TerekMedia @FFRAFAction @network_eman @GSPSipo @StimmeUkraine @CPD_UA @LawUkrainian @ictopyk @A_SHEKH0VTS0V
Read 4 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Sep 29
THREAD: Could #VladimirPutin repeat the 1999 apartment bombings scenario in 2022? /1
#UkraineRussiaWar #Ukrainekrieg #nuclearwar #nuclearattack #WarInUkraine #RussiaUkraineWar #Putin #War_in_Ukraine #UkraineWar
#atomkrieg #RussiaisATerroistState
One of the possible escalation scenarios in the next weeks or months is a repetition, on larger scale, of the 1999 apartment bombings that brought #Putin his first presidency in 2000-2004. /2
In September 1999, the #FSB blew up four residential buildings in #Moscow, #Volgodonsk and #Buinaksk thereby killing about 300 #Russian civilians. /3
Read 11 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Sep 12
Während #Russland für viele #Westeuropäer noch immer als Partner in Sachen Energie gilt, bombardiert Moskau in der #Ukraine systematisch Kraftwerke und verdammt Millionen Menschen zu einem unmöglichen Leben ohne Elektrizität, Heizung, Wasser.... Der Westen könnte zwar helfen. /1
Doch hält man #Flugabwehrgerät, #Jagdflugzeuge, #Radartechnik, #Langstreckenraketen usw. lieber bis zur Verschrottung ungenutzt auf eigenen Kasernengeländen oder in Lagerhallen daheim zurück. Das bittere Elend auch von Millionen Nachbarn ist die eigene Seelenruhe allemal wert. /2
Hier und da ein paar Fahrzeuge, Geräte und Hilfsgüter liefern... So hat man ein Alibi. Das eigene Gewissen ist beruhigt. Fakt bleibt jedoch, dass tausendfacher Tod und millionenfaches Elend Unschuldiger mit etwas mehr Mut und Entschlossenheit hätten verhindert werden können. /3
Read 5 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Sep 11
@JohannesVarwick 1. Ein Ausgleich wäre nur durch faktische oder formale territoriale Zugeständnisse an Russland zu erreichen. Derlei "Konfliktlösungen" gab es seit 1992 betr. Transnistriens, Abchasiens, der Region Zchinwali, der Krim & des Donbas. Resultat waren gespaltene Staaten & neue Kriege.
@JohannesVarwick 2. Angesichts des zunehmend repressiven und teils genozidalen russischen Okkupationsregimes in der Ukraine müsste Kyjiw öffentlich einwilligen, einen Teil seiner Bürger dauerhafter Terrorherrschaft und einem eventuelle Massenmord auszusetzen. Das wäre nicht nur moralisch dubios.
@JohannesVarwick 3. Dies ist auch innenpolitisch unwahrscheinlich. Jede ukrainische Regierung, die sich auf einen solchen Deal einlässt, würde fallen (nicht ganz zum Ungemach Moskaus). Sich als unpopulär aber realistisch darstellende Handlungsanweisungne sollten bitte auch realistisch sein.
Read 5 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Sep 10
Some observers may conclude from current Ukrainian military advances that #Ukraine does not need that many weapons any more. Victory for Kyiv looks more & more possible. Seemingly, the rationale for heavily arming Ukraine is weakening in view of Kyiv's impressive recent gains. /1
However, Ukraine precarious location in a geopolitical grey zone will not change any time soon. As long as Ukraine is neither a NATO nor a full EU member, the country will have to take care of its security itself. Russia may either continue now or resume later its aggression. /2
An as heavy, comprehensive and modern as possible arming of #Ukraine has thus not only a tactical dimension. It is not only necessary for a successful completion of the current counter-offensive, and eventual achievement of a peace deal with Moscow that is acceptable to Kyiv. /3
Read 7 tweets

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