Thread by @bctallis

#Germany needs change.
But what is the change it needs?

In this new piece for @IPQuarterly I argue that rather than narrowly or introvertedly focusing on defence, 🇩🇪 (& its partners) need a #Zeitenwende that is:

▶️International
▶️Societal

🧵1/
ip-quarterly.com/en/what-zeiten…

Defence & the role of the military have (understandably) hogged the headlines since Chancellor #Scholz' 27/02 speech that seemed to herald a new approach.

- But the 100bn EUR special fund to plug some of the most glaring (military) gaps isn't enough
2/

ip-quarterly.com/en/what-zeiten…

to touch the sides of the Bundeswehr's shortcomings and won't help #Germany consistently meet its #NATO 2% target beyond 2025.
Nonetheless, #Scholz has claimed that 🇩🇪has already made a "fundamental change"
3/
bundesregierung.de/breg-en/search…

BUT what seem like giant leaps to some of the Berlin bubble are baby steps when viewed from elsewhere. From #NS2 to weapons deliveries, too many of #Germany's allies see the govt. as having done little more than the bare minimum - & too slowly & grudgingly.
4/

🇩🇪HAS provided highly effective and much appreciated kit, including heavy weapons, to #Ukraine - but the view from outside (& for many inside) is that
#Germany's too often been
a day late & a Leopard short.
5/

Another problem is the excuses ... so many excuses ... many of which collapse only days or weeks after being made.
dw.com/en/why-isnt-ge…

6/

Bending to peer pressure means reform-minded Germans (& allies) see a government that moves not at its own strategically-planned pace,
but at the speed of shame

This creates a dangerous dynamic that is in nobody’s interest.
7/
ip-quarterly.com/en/what-zeiten…

If the pace & content of change are felt to be imposed on #Germany from outside its unlikely to lead to a sustainable transformation in 🇩🇪's strategic culture, mindset or posture.

8/
(h/t images from @supergscheid)

Thankfully, there's a potentially productive alliance between 🇩🇪 reformers and international allies who all want a genuine transformation that goes far beyond the military & reaches deep, across German society.
9/

Internationalising the #Zeitenwende means developing common (or compatible) visions for regional & global ordering▶️& complementary contributions to achieving them.

We live in an entangled world & this can prevent a(nother) national Sonderweg which does international harm.

10/

But this goes 2 ways. Internationalising the #Zeitenwende is also the best way for #Germany to increase its own influence. IF 🇩🇪
- LISTENS TO & LEARNS FROM allies (esp in #NCEE & across the Atlantic)
&
- Shows it is serious about lasting, meaningful change
then
11/

#Germany can work to win back trust & help its leaders again get a fair hearing
- they should use this to more clearly articulate 🇩🇪's interests & how they plan to pursue them in accordance with Goals & Values shared with allies & partners.

12/

Big Q:
▶️How will #Germany contribute to winning the systemic competition against autocracies?

Not alone, BUT no more submerging itself in imagined European or EU interests.

🇩🇪 Needs to stand up & be counted in ways that:
- Germans & Allies welcome
- Adversaries recognise
13/

This doesn't mean losing or obscuring🇩🇪identity - but recognising that this identity, and the particularity of German society is formed in and through interaction with others
#Multiplicity

journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…

14/

As well as being international, the #Zeitenwende needs to deal with issues of German identity -
It needs to be 'Made in #Germany'

This means taking a “whole of society” approach that tackles the specific challenges and opportunities 🇩🇪 faces.
15/

https://twitter.com/bctallis/status/1538895530188840961?s=20&t=-96NTkQtuR1aGm7pgO0Rhw

There's understandable concern that in taking a comprehensive approach, the German National Security Strategy can't become too broad or vague.

Tho this shouldn't be conflated with the #Zeitenwende, which must be wider & deeper if it is to succeed.
16/
fourninesecurity.de/en/2022/08/25/…

We've already seen the need for an integrated approach.
Getting off 🇷🇺 gas forces 🇩🇪 policymakers into uncomfortable decisions on nuclear, coal and renewable power sources.
These choices have knock on effects on climate goals & could create new dependencies on authoritarians
17/

(e.g. ST - energy, LT - rare earths)
Happily, increased energy costs for households haven't undermined support for #Ukraine but many businesses, including #Germany's flagship firms, must adapt to life without their Russian fix.
18/

Regardless of whether #Germany can continue to do business as usual with #China (it shouldn't & likely won't) - a rethink of 🇩🇪 competitiveness is in order.
The #Zeitenwende creates an opportunity for a long-overdue socio-technological transformation
19/

https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1579810121982824451?s=20&t=7ZN1lKXFRKKtFF_NNBmB_A

BUT, this transformation is going to ask a lot of questions of firms, workers & politicians - including about what work is valued & how we value work.

How these are answered (& negative affects absorbed) will affect 🇩🇪cred - fall further behind or catch up e.g.
🇪🇪🇫🇮🇺🇦?
/20

All of this matters b/c it will affect how #Germany can (inter)act, and how its citizens see their state & society - do they provide the kind of future worth buying into?
That not only affects #resilience but also the kind of International relations 🇩🇪 can & will conduct.
/21

Facing up to these challenges will mean making choices & managing the frictions & tensions which will arise.
- it will also require much more than e.g. defence capabilities.
It needs
- societal & political will & readiness to act
- agility to move quickly + LT commitment
/22

There have been mixed signs so far.
To take 1 example
✅ #9EuroTicket was a good example of speedy innovation (mitigating rising fuel prices in a climate friendly way) even if more integrated planning was needed.
23/
dw.com/en/9-euro-tick…

But ...
❌The 200bn EUR special fund for energy price caps is an un-strategic handout that does little to incentivise positive behavioural change.

It wasn't considered or properly consulted internationally & immediately caused a row with EU partners
24/
politico.eu/article/olaf-s…

#Germany's challenge in mastering its change is to foster a LT integrated strategic approach, coordinated with allies, that better identifies national & shared interests & values - & marry it to greater agility.
A #Zeitenwende of the mind - & the mindset.
ip-quarterly.com/en/what-zeiten…

That's why @dgapev with @MercatorDE
we're working to help🇩🇪 #changemakers explore the country's Geostrategic choices (with International partners) to approach the #Zeitenwende in an integrated way aimed at forging a
#Germany: Ready, Willing & Able to Act
dgap.org/en/research/pr…