Fact Finder, The Profile picture
Nov 2 15 tweets 12 min read
Is India's Consumption is Booming or Bombing ? keep updating the thread with Nuggets ...
Kantar's FMCG Pulse report .. April-Aug 2022.
Average MONTHLY sales of FMCG packs were 19.2 bn, or 62 packs/household, from Apr-Aug 2022
vs PRE-COVID: Average MONTHLY sales of FMCG packs 15 billion or 51 packs/household => 20% Increase in VOLUME

BUT #DEVIL lies in the #detail
packs bought pre-pandemic weighed 438 grams on average, the size has shrunk to just 309 grams now amid soaring inflation .... thats a 30% reduction in Volume/Pack...

In Other Words, CONSUMPTION per household in FMCG is Down 15% .... Cant recall such a BAD SCENARIO in 35 yrs..
The ENTIRE INCREASE IN PACKETS (51 => 62) came from FOOD.. PRE-COVID, about 23 packs of food products were purchased by a household every month on average; however, between May and August 2022, this jumped to 31 pack

Essentially, Non-Food FMCG, the SCENARIO is a DISASTER
#Shoes RELAXO FOOTWEAR which caters to the Aam Admi (BATA which caters to the Upper End & has not reported as yet)

Q2FY23: Revenue -6.3% | EBITDA -49.1%

With Footwear inflation @ 13-15% YoY, Relaxo must have witnessed downtrading & volume de-growth (despite schools opening)
#BIZCOM #DIWALI According to data by Bizom, a platform that automates retail execution at 7.5 #million kirana stores, overall #FMCG sales clocked a MoM growth of 5% during #DiwaliSeason

Overall YoY was just 10.6% YoY
(Adjust for 15-20% Inflation, you end up with YoY #DECLINE)
this was driven largely by branded commodities (+26% MoM), chocolates & confectionery (+13% MoM) vs Packaged foods (-4% MoM) and home care (-4% MoM), Personal Care (-18% MoM) and Beverages (-23% MoM).
Source: timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india…
An Analysis of #SaffireFoods ... QSR is witnessing 10-15% VOLUME decline per store... the company will NOT ADMIT IT... the numbers tell you the truth
#FMCG #ZEROGROWTH #Rural #Urban #Nielsen #hindustanunilever #YouCannotMakeThisUp
During the Sept Quarter #2QFy23 results, @HUL_News shared a presentation showing that in HUL relevant categories, 3 YEAR VOLUMES in URBAN & RURAL India have DECLINED 1% CAGR for the FMCG INDUSTRY
#FMCG #ZEROGROWTH #Rural #Urban if one drills down into further detail, they show that, In RURAL India during the last 3 Months, Volumes for the FELL 10% YoY for the FMCG INDUSTRY while it fell 3% YoY in URBAN India
Recall Kantar Mentioned FMCG volumes declined 15% vs Pre-covid
#India #GOLD #Consumption NOT STELLAR as media indicated especially given that GOLD PRICES in INR have remained STEADY and the recent weakness should have helped.
As per World Gold Council, In the Jan-Sept 22 period, gold jewelry demand was at 381 tonnes but below PRE-COVID
What did the Listed Companies Report in Sept Qtr
- TITAN’S jewelry division grew 18%
- KALYAN Jeweler's rev grew 14%
Given Retail outlet Expansion & INFLATION, this is DISAPPOINTING !
Indias FALL #GrossHouseHoldSavings rates is putting a Challenge on #Consumption

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More from @TheFactFindr

Nov 3
#Here is #How #Modi #reduced #Corruption in #NewIndia
SUMMARY: Introduce a Law that Dissuades reporting of Corruption.

It’s a long #Thread. so please stay with me.

In July 2018, the Govt passed the Prevention of Corruption (Amendment) Bill, 2013.

#AntiCorruption #Corruption #NewIndia work of #Genius

How does this Amendment change things?

(A) Post Amendment, the #Bribe #Giver would also be considered a #criminal or penalizing the bribe giver and bribe taker on equal terms.
#AntiCorruption #Corruption #NewIndia work of #Genius

(B) The Amended Act will facilitate confiscation of the offender’s property

Looking at A & B, who in their right mind will COMPLAIN about being forced to give a bribe?
Read 15 tweets
Nov 3
1/ This is clearly a #AssetManager #Bias since he is in the business of ONLY #COLLECTING #AUM ... The headline is "Half a trillion-dollar FII inflows may be heading India’s way and focus is on 3 sectors: Saurabh Mukherjea"

Lets look at the Data

economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert…
2/ The Share of INDIA DEDICATED FII money as a proportion of all the FII money in India today is about 7% from ACTIVE fund Managers . That Ratio of 7% about 10 years about was more like 12% and back in 2007-08, it was almost 25-30% .....
3/ So clearly 85% of the FII money in India IS NOT DEDICATED to India but a Regional Allocation from either Global Emerging Market funds or Asia Pacific Funds... The question is, if INDIA was so sexy, how come INDIA DEDICATED FII Money fell as a proportion
Read 4 tweets
Nov 3
1/ A forward .... The Irony of the #ProudIndian #RishiSunakPM #NRIs

There is tremendous hype about Rishi Sunak being
selected as PM of Britian; which makes many Indians proud and happy
2/ However , how many of us know that Leo Varadkar, the current Prime Minister of Ireland is of Indian descent? His parents are from Vasai, near Bombay.
3/ As late as 2003, Leo completed his internship at KEM Hospital, Bombay.

His mother is an Irish lady and his father an Indian from Vasai, a suburb of Bombay, in Thane District of Maharashtra.

Leo has won a second term as PM.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 3
#SapphireFoods #IndiaConsumption #DEVIL #InTheDetail #2QFY23 #DISASTER
Consol Revenues +36% YoY
Store Count (2 Quarter Moving Avg): 37% YoY
Which Explains why .... AVERAGE DAILY SALES per store (₹ ‘000) has been FLAT YoY !! (CHART) ImageImage
KEEP IN MIND 2 POINT
(1) Anecdotally Restaurants & QSRs (& FMCG) have raised prices by 15-20% YoY due to inflation
(2) Share of DINE-IN has increased from 33% (KFC) & 23% (PH) to 44% (KFC)/38% (PH) => people spend more/head in DINE-IN due to refreshments & desert ImageImage
So Ideally on account of INFLATION ... say 12-15% and higher Share of Dine-in ...Say 20% higher Ticket size per head on 11-15% higher Incremental Dine-in Share...

Across Channels, Avg Ticket per Meal should be higher by atleast 12 to 15% (inflation) PLUS 20% * (avg of 11 & 15%)
Read 6 tweets
Nov 2
#INFLATION IN India does not Exist @nsitharaman
Prices of most #Huble & #affordable #snacks available in #Mumbai—vada pav, bhaji pav and samosa pav—have increased by Rs 2 to 5 in view of the hike in rates of edible oils & commercial cylinders ...2nd time in 2022 #Shrinkflation
Lets start with the Article from #APRIL2022... The rate of oil has suddenly increased by Rs 800-Rs 900 and the price of gas has also increased. Earlier, we used to pay Rs 1,600 for gas and now it stands at Rs 2,300. Green chilly too has become expensive.
Earlier we used to sell each vada pav for Rs 20 but we have now increased it to Rs 22. Similarly, we are selling samosa pav for Rs 23 as opposed to earlier Rs 20, and bhaji pav for Rs 22, up from Rs 20
Read 8 tweets
Oct 31
I entirely agree with your view that the listed / formal space is doing better than the unlisted/informal space... but the key question is (1) With Asset Allocation globally moving from Equity (65% today) to Debt (=>65%) => likely FPI/FDI with India Savings <Investment Rate
(2) How Long can earnings grow with job losses continuing in the bigger informal economy
(3) Do you think that Rates reversing for the next decade if not more whihc is the 1st time in our investment career spanning 30yrs... do you think what you experienced will apply
Read 4 tweets

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