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Lance Roberts Profile picture
@LanceRoberts
Nov 8, 2022 • 6 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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For an #economy to flourish, and create #prosperity for the majority of participants, there must be a strong and vibrant #middleclass. Today's #blog digs into the disappearance of the economic engine.
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i…
The shrinking of the middle class is accompanied by an increase in the share of adults in the upper-income tier from 14% in 1971 to 21% in 2021. At the same time, there was an increase in the share who are in the lower-income tier, from 25% to 29%.
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i… Image
Most importantly, and what is often not included in the analysis, is the standard of living gets “paid for” on an “after-tax” basis. When we include taxation, it becomes clear that roughly 80% of America is failing to support the “middle-class” lifestyle.
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i… Image
“When broken down by generation, younger adults, or Gen Zers, are more likely to experience ‘#recession fatigue’ than millennials, Gen Xers, and baby boomers. "
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i… ImageImage
Between 1959 and 1990, individuals could sustain their inflation-adjusted standard of living with only #incomes and #savings. Since 2008, it requires an increasing level of debt to “fill the gap” to afford and the cost of the current living standard.
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i… ImageImage
The share of annual incomes between the bottom 80% and the top 5% is evidence of that wealth transfer from the middle class.
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i… Image

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More from @LanceRoberts

Lance Roberts Profile picture
Nov 4, 2023
The #BullBearReport is out!
We have suggested a #rally was coming as #markets reached oversold levels. That #rally came with a vengeance following the #FOMC meeting. With #rate #hikes on pause, the #bulls bought everything from #stocks to #bonds. But will the rally last?
Given that the #Fed did little to talk up projections of further #rate hikes, the #market took this as meaning the Fed is likely done hiking rates.
The break of the 200-DMA was reversed on Thursday, and the 50-DMA was breached on Friday. Those actions set the market up for a rally into year-end.

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#Sentiment remains negative despite the #rally. Such will provide fuel for a rally into year-end.
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-into-yea…
Image
Read 6 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
Jul 1, 2023
The #BullBearReport is out!
Last week, we suggested a #market #rally was likely after the #correction to the 20-DMA. That rally took the market to a new 52-week. However, #complacency has become elevated. What is the $VIX telling us now?
realinvestmentadvice.com/complacency-se…
With the #market back to more overbought levels, some #correction is needed to provide a better risk/reward entry point. Using Fibonacci retracement levels, investors should consider adding exposure at 4250 down to the 200-DMA.
https://t.co/mfrneEKHN5realinvestmentadvice.com/complacency-se…
#Investors have become very #bullish on the #market as #FOMO returns. #Volatility has dropped below average, #calloptions are surging, and #sentiment is rising.
https://t.co/4aTJrjYTQnrealinvestmentadvice.com/complacency-se…




Read 7 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
Jan 17, 2023
Today's #blog covers why the #pain #trade is likely higher over the next few weeks as #sentiment improves and too much money is offside.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-pain-trade…
#Bullish optimism is building around:
- #Fed cutting rates
- #Economy will avoid #recession
- #Employment remains strong.
- #Earnings have corrected enough
Risk to that view remains a recession.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-pain-trade…
It is called the “#paintrade” because it is the opposite of how #investors are currently positioned. Investor sentiment remains historically #bearish despite improvement since the October lows.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-pain-trade…
Read 5 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
Dec 13, 2022
Today's #blog is part 2 of our outlook for 2023. Why you will want to own #bonds in the first half and #stocks in the 2nd.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-2023-inves…
The #inversion of 80% of the 10 #economically important yield curves also suggests a recession is likely. The inverted yield curves play an essential role in our 2023 portfolio positioning.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-2023-inves…
So far, investors have mostly overlooked the rate shock impact on the real economy. However, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes have collapsed the composite Economic Composite Index and the 6-month rate of change of the Leading Economic Index.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-2023-inves…
Read 5 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
Oct 11, 2022
Today's #blogpost discusses #Grantham's recent comments on the #SuperBubble's final act. Is that the case, or is this time different?
realinvestmentadvice.com/superbubbles-t…
We find ourselves at the crossroads where #markets and #fundamental realities meet. From this point, the outlook for equities over the next 9-12 months is more #bearish than #bullish.
realinvestmentadvice.com/superbubbles-t… Image
Notably, the “difference this time” is the #Fed is aggressively tightening #monetary #policy to slow economic growth and reduce demand-driven inflation. The consequence is negative concerning both #economic and #earnings growth.
realinvestmentadvice.com/superbubbles-t… Image
Read 4 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
Oct 8, 2022
The #BullBearReport is out.
The #market started with a strong #rally, then #stumbled into week's end. With #oversold conditions still intact and CPI next week, the #bulls have a shot at a rally if #inflation shows some signs of cooling.
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-rally-s…
Moving forward, YoY comparisons become more challenging at 0.9%, 0.7%, 0.6%, 0.6%, 0.8%, and 1.2% through March 2023. In August, #inflation will drop to 7.9% from 9% in June. Assuming an avg. 0.2% MoM increase, CPI hits the Fed’s 2% target in June 2023.
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-rally-s… Image
Despite Friday's rout, the #market did finish the week in positive territory. The deeply oversold indicators turned up and are close to triggering “buy signals.” The market is trading 2-standard deviations below the 50- WEEK moving average.
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-rally-s… Image
Read 6 tweets

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