Thread by @HeliosRunner

So.... it's happening (of course) even a bit sooner than expected...
the harder was to take the decision i guess... (make the call & mentally digest it)
let's see now how all this is going to unfold in coming days..
Great.
#Russia #Kherson #Ukraine

2/ Also as explained weeks ago, as this global maneuver requires a lots of preparation, (in order for the Russian not to get massively killed or captured), they pull back all the heavy materials, then build defensive lines in order to "collapse" the front in good order, and then

3/ they will try at the same time, like they did in #Kyiv to interdict, with special weapons & highly trained small platoon to control all the main "danger points" controlling all that specific "roads" in order to move away while minimizing the losses.

"Retrograde maneuvers"

4/ like @ChuckPfarrer just stated r the most complex and difficult challenges in land warfare. (u can compare to rare best boxers fighting backward) RU units face not only dangers from pursuing UKR forces, but the logistical challenges of crossing the Dnipro- while under fire.

5/ the only thing we do know is that it won't change anything in the RU MOD staff or in top of the hierarchy. because they all worked together to make it happens under the decisive call of #Putin himself.
so it's gonna be "carry on, nothing to comment".

6/ right now, what you should also understand is that UKR might want to harass Ru troops, but, to be clear, it could be like in #Severodonetsk or other places where people where crying out loud about Thousands of prisoners to come.. & at the end of the day nothing happened.

7/ you have to understand that contrary to what a lot of people believe on Social Network, there are talks sometimes directly between 2 major groups and commander kind of "non written agreement" to let go the enemy, first because there is nothing "big" to seize no more (all gone)

8/ also because it's dangerous sometimes to run after after try to kill an old wolf who try to escape (from one story i've heard once in the Stepps), because then you can lose more than you would gain just letting him go...

9/ finally 'im quite happy for several reasons if they move out of this entire area as i said like 10 times last spring until very recently that all these little "moves" in this area where driving me "mad".

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1571580879633354757

10/ Actually we knew from a long time ago.. that Russia will have deep deep problems in that area & will certainly not be able to stay there.. but we did not knew how long it will take.
i talk about it here

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1571603005706801156

11/ back then for the people who totally forgot.. it was a big red NO NO when we all witnessed that Russian where not even able to seize #Peresadivka north of #Mykolaiv
reminder : cbc.ca/news/world/myk…

12/ so right now, what we have to consider is also that about 15k men plus support are all going to be on the other side of the #Dniepro - let some "defensive lines" there all along the river and shore of the sea, and certainly will try to report all their effort in 2 main areas

13/ certainly one of this area -which is quite obvious- is to report forces on the famous #Vuhledar zone.. because the goal is STILL to take the entire #Donetsk oblast..
which is totally stupid.. but deeply inside Putin's will.

14/ the other area is of course the " #Zaporizhzhia / #Zaporijia " zone, in order to control it for a long period (because i don't think they'll really try to move forward there, long before much more reinforcements..
but we'll see about that one... it's not the main story.

15/ So right now we are receiving direct news couple hours ago - 47°3′N 32°46′E
The #Ukrainian flag has been raised over #Snihurivka, #Mykolaiv Oblast
which is one of the hardest lock that was blocking Ukr from going forward and do more actions there..

16/ and right now other reports from Tg channels reports the same mvts in several areas..
which indicates -as i always said- that they are moving in "proper & prepared" order & that Russian are going to move out of their entrenches line all along what was the actual FEBA there.

17/ so end up (for now) this min thread about #Kherson it's a huge victory for #Ukraine because first of all it will help regain entire land for years to come without any fear of Russians coming back there...
and also it's definitively as explained in the past a definite "loss"

18/ for #Putin's dream about his famous #Novarussia #Новороссия, #Novorossia effing plan..
so this will also have some good other consequences, no more troops to survey the #transnistria border & all the best marine ukr troops will be transferred on the other side of #Dniepro

19/ at the same time, you can keep a lots of #Himars well protected by better AA defense and buildings on the right side of the Dniepro and "shoot" Russian in their "back" forcing them to move constantly.
on the other hand, as explained 9 days ago, now Ru can have the "pretext"

20/ of shelling and bombing all the way #Kherson as they have "removed" what they call "their citizen" and only Nazis/terrorists are supposed to remain in the area..
we"ll see about that too. if they punish the city like they did against #Mykolaiv

End - for now.

21/ as i was quite "soft spoken" in this thread...
i need to post one last thing here :
😅😉

22/ this was a very "productive" day obviously
as i see Kirill #Stremousov, the Russian chief puppet of #Kherson Oblast, is dead.
car "accident" lol
Splendid grand slam Dunk over his dead body ! #Ukraine