Commenting thread on the below and similar analyses:
There is too much emphasis, in many assessments of #Russia's 2014-15 & 2022 invasions of #Ukraine, on allegedly fundamental or even fatal mistakes made in these decisions by #Putin & his entourage. /1…
The ideological predisposition towards an irredentist revanche, in the neo-Soviet & -Tsarist elite of #Russia, has been strong since the 1990s. This imperial drive was waiting to become unleashed, and has been marginally contained by rational calculus & strategic deliberation. /2
It was looking for different ad hoc opportunities rather than developing competing long-term #strategies to become implemented. Soft, dark, sharp and other forms of non-military power instruments were only applied to the degree that they could replace traditional #hardpower. /3
By 2021, Moscow had tried all means other than a massive use of its regular army to keep its influence in & regain control over #Ukraine. #Miscalculation was secondary to plain #desperation as the prime factor in the #Kremlin's decision to invade lands it considers #Russian. /4
Perhaps, Putin & his entourage knew more of the risks linked to the "special military operation" than we assume. But the revanchists had, from their point of view, no other choice than to go for all-out war. /END

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More from @UmlandAndreas

Jan 6
THREAD -- Antworten auf vier Interviewfragen zur #Krimfrage:
Für wie wahrscheinlich halten Sie, dass die ukrainische Armee eine Gegenoffensive auf der #Krim in den kommenden Wochen/Monaten vollzieht? /1
@SCEEUS_UI @DUF_Forum @crimeaplatform @Konflikt_Sicher @DGO_Berlin @DerDuod
@SCEEUS_UI @DUF_Forum @crimeaplatform @Konflikt_Sicher @DGO_Berlin @DerDuod @GSPSipo @TerekMedia @StimmeUkraine @UkraineworldD @ukrainian_week @DUHK_2020 @VitscheBerlin @FiS_Heidelberg @krus_stern Es wird womöglich weiteren Beschuss von Militäranlagen - insbesondere Flugplätze, die #Kertschbrücke und Raketenbasen - geben. Jedoch scheint mir eine Landoffensive auf die #Krim zunächst unwahrscheinlich.... /2
Zuerst müsste die russisch besetzte Landverbindung von der #Krim zum #Donbas beseitigt werden. Der Isthmus von #Perekop zwischen der Festlandukraine und Krim kann von #Russland womöglich lange gehalten werden... /3
Read 13 tweets
Dec 23, 2022
Congratulations to the writers of #VolodymyrZelenskyy's excellent speech! While most people lionize now #Zelenskyy​, I do not think that another president of #Ukraine would have been much worse. /1 - THREAD
Imagine #VolodymyrZelenskiy​ had not entered the presidential race and there had been a different contest and election in early 2019. /2
If, for instance, #PetroPoroshenko​, #YuliiaTymoshenko​, #AnatolyyHrytsenko​, #VitaliKlitschko​, or another of the more feasible candidates had become Ukrainian president, this would have changed little in the subsequent course of events. /3
Read 6 tweets
Dec 19, 2022
THREAD ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY: Every additional Russian missile or drone hitting Ukrainian civilian buildings or critical infrastrucure has wider implications for Europe and the world. /1
(Picture: Summer 2019 @vostoksos mission: Recording gunfire at the Donbas contact line.)
The March 2022 decision by #NATO to reject #Ukraine's request for a #NoFlyZone was taken quickly & resolutely. However, deeper repercussions of this seemingly clear-cut case have remained under the radar screen. What Kyiv wanted was not NATO's active participation in the war. /2
Instead of inviting an out-of-area mission comparable to NATO's bombing of Serbia in 1999, the Ukrainian request for a #NoFlyZone was about protection from rather than an attack on Russia. It would be a bilateral agreement between Brussels & Kyiv regarding Ukraine's territory. /3
Read 15 tweets
Dec 18, 2022
Как то многие #русские не поняли или не хотят признать простую вещь: кроме других народов, #чекитсы ради своей власти уничтожали 70 лет и русскую традицию, мысль, науку, культуру, веру, нацию. /1
А теперь уничтожают ещё и российское государство - все под предлогом защиты и безопасности русских от капиталистов, троцкистов, террористов, сатанистов, неонацистов, гомосексуалистов... /2
Вспомните сентябрь 1999 года: Ваши жилые дома в Москве, Волгодонске и Буйнакске тогда также взрывались, как сегодня жилые дома "братских" украинцев. Все ради власти гебешной корпорации. Вы, простые русские, для ваших правителей такой же расходный материал как и другие народы. /3
Read 5 tweets
Dec 15, 2022
THREAD: Suppose one takes #JohnMearsheimer, the #RussianGovernment, @SWagenknecht, and similar analysts seriously. Since #Finland's #NATO application on 19 May 2022, we should be discussing every day how Helsinki is putting the future of humankind at risk. /1 @FansMearsheimer
@SWagenknecht @FansMearsheimer @Konflikt_Sicher @WeLoveNATO @UkraineToNato @TerekMedia @GSPSipo @FiS_Heidelberg @prarmyua @PromoteUkraine @DAGATAGermany @LiberaleModerne Once #Finland enters @NATO, the length of the border between the Western alliance and #Russia will approximately double. #NATO will be able to attack #Putin's hometown St. Petersburg from two sides, from Finland approx. 170 km away and from #Estonia approx. 140 km away. /2
@SWagenknecht @FansMearsheimer @Konflikt_Sicher @WeLoveNATO @UkraineToNato @TerekMedia @GSPSipo @FiS_Heidelberg @prarmyua @PromoteUkraine @DAGATAGermany @LiberaleModerne @NATO #Helsinki's reckless application, @NATO's positive response, and the almost complete ratification of #Finland's accession have brought us to the verge of #WorldWarIII. But somehow most foreign political TV shows today are about #Ukraine, and not about Finland. /3
Read 5 tweets
Dec 7, 2022
Most discussions of #Russia’s attack on #Ukraine are about one’s position within the #RussianUkrainianWar. Yet, the real question is: What stance do you take towards the #annihilation and #intimidation campaign of an army against millions of civilians? /1…
How best formulate "interests," "strategy" & "tactics" in the face of undisguised mass murder? What is "wise" & "unwise" to do vis-à-vis state terror? How calibrate your reaction when heavy weapons daily target infrastructure that keeps pensioners, patients & children alive? /2
What position and action does a European take regarding not so much a European war, but a state's daily, purposeful & demonstrative use, in Europe, of large cannons, missiles, bombers and warships to explode the homes and life support systems of families during winter time? /END
Read 4 tweets

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