Thread by @HeliosRunner

1/ The #US is moving 155mm shells from its bases in #Israel and #South Korea, — The New York Times

According to the publication, at the moment, Washington has promised to transfer more than a million shells. In particular, about half of the 300,000 munitions in US warehouses in

2/ Israel have already been sent to #Europe for further transfer to Ukraine. which clearly indicates the real problem that #Ukraine artillery has been living lately and was noticed even by "wargogo" for last month..

Recently Ukrainians officials were reported that daily RU could

3/ use 20k shell while Ukraine only 5k. which more than far from being "optimum".
So of course US have explained they would ramp up the production x6 in 2023 but right now, it just indicates that both US & Europe are one more time late on a decisive subject.
1 million shell

4/ if volume goes back around 15k to 20k / day would mean a good 2 months of real offensive and annihilation of Russian positions.

this is a key elements, and i hope it'll come in time to bridge the actual gap and the rise of future productions.
because with new Ru mob &

5/ recent talks it is quite clear (all my old friends remember my now famous speech in September) that Putin is going to throw everything including the kitchen sink, and 100k men to die, so it is quite obvious that bullets & shells (& other materials) are going to be much needed.

6/ just for future ref :
Couple days made a quick/dirty map with G earth and on an approximate 600km of real active front line (i'm excluding #Kherson area, and about 100km where Ukr are almost exclusively "waiting for russian to die" like in NiuYork, it means that right now 50

7/ during winter, and the major offensives still awaited by Russians, well, #Ukrainians can use only about 50 shells per km / day !!
of course it is a bit more diff as you tend to focus on precise target on couple hundreds meters... but even then, right now, it is a terrible

8/ "aveu d'échec" because of us. because we did not stepped up, directly in full speed production mode the first day Putin broke the seal & call for a gen mob.

and that's the reason why (part of) right now, he is telling they can reach their "famous" goal of conquering Donetsk

9/ oblast. (i believe they would simply consider as a victory once they would have totally destroyed Sloviansk and Kramatorsk) and then they would simply consider making another defensive total frontier like they did for LNR/DNR and "bonsoir tout le monde". and it would be bad.

10/ we just have to look at the map i've prepared :
when Putin & his croonies are watching this & considering their way of thinking in term of perpetual war & grinding & conquering.. they think : ok we have made that progress in one year, we will make the other half in one more

11/ year...
of course this si ridiculous to compare, as Ru have lost their best troops & good materials & have less & less CAS & EW or support. but still a TON of artillery & making plan to be able to shell their way through..
and in the process destroying the famous Kramatorsk

12/ i'll do another specific thread about all this as previously explained, BUT.. yes, Ru won't be able to go on like that and conquer that "arc" /limit..
but in the process it's one more year of total destruction and more death and Putin is expecting with his "ratio" of 5:1 in

13/ term of losses that he will destroy majority of Ukrainian best part of the army in the process.

All sick people do that... bring you down in their fall "tous ensemble/égaux dans le caniveau"

14/ so anyway, just to say that's it no more time to think about "what can we give/not give" etc. it's time to push our occidental industries of defense to the max! and produce massively all the weapons needed to destroy as FAST as possible all this Russian threat!
it's a HUGE

15/ mistake to do things like we do it now..

it's time for a gen plan, to produce and give the MAXIMUM available!

and i'll give one example for France : we just finish one new assembly line for Caesar: well make another one, and make two shift of production / day so in the

16/ next 6/8 months we can directly deliver 30 more Caesar!! because Russia is going NOWHERE ! and even if war would stops (by miracle, in 8 months) well it would be only the cost of one assembly line (dozen millions euros.). but who CARES? it"s not important ! @EmmanuelMacron

17/ i can go on and on and on about everything like that! and all the countries should really really step up ! 10 folds!
the sooner this nightmare will be over, the better.
i have still to explain about MBTs for my french audience and will do tomorrow but YES we can give LECLERC

18/ i will also talk about Drones (old friends knows i'm quite into this) because it's the same when i see how ridiculous we are in terms of help (not talking abt basic DJI etc but something diff).

anyway; that's it for now.
thank you all! Good evening!