Ted Darling Profile picture
Feb 6 12 tweets 4 min read
Hello Monday!

A risk-off to start the week that smells of 2022
$VIX 🔺
$TNX 🔺
$USD 🔺

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia, ex-Japan, ↘️

$NIKK $27694 +0.65%
$SSEC 3239 -0.75%
$TWII 15393 -1.35%
$HSI 21222 -2.0%
$KOSPI 2439 -1.7%
$IDX 6874 -0.55%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7539 -0.25%

India ↘️
$BSE 60523 -0.5%
Europe ↘️

$DAX 15337 -0.9%
$FTSE 7834 -0.85%
$CAC 7147 -1.2%
$AEX 755 -1.15%
$IBEX 9146 -0.85%
$MIB 26773 -0.65%
$SMI 11253 -0.85%
$MOEX 2262 +0.6% ⬅️

$VSTOXX 18.69 🔺

$DAX range = 15105 - 15639 ♉️
🇺🇸 futures ↘️

$ES 4108 -0.7%
$NQ 12464 -0.85%
$RTY 1971 -0.65%

$VIX 19.44 🔺

$SPX range = 4008 - 4190 ♉️
$COMPQ range = 11258 - 12256 ♉️
$IWM range = 187 - 201 ♉️
$VIX range = 17.46 - 21.71 🐻
GOLD ↗️ with metals ↔️

$GOLD 1887 +0.55%
$SILVER 22.46 +0.25%
$COPPER 4.031 -0.65%
$PLAT 981 +0.05%
$PALL 1589 -1.8%
$ALI 2523 -1.8%
$ZINC 3185 -1.2%

$GVZ 15.06

$GOLD range = 1864 - 1927 ♉️
$SILVER range = 21.61 - 23.75 ♉️
$COPPER range = 3.99 - 4.36 ♉️
Hydrocarbons ↔️ with Natty headed to 0⃣
On the lookout for the #BidenPut

$WTIC 73.34 -0.05%
$BRENT 80.05 +0.1%
$GASO 2.31 -0.5%
$NATGAS 2.389 -0.85%

$OVX 39.48

$WTIC range = 70.45 - 78.32 🐻
$NATGAS range = 2.23 - 3.15 🐻
$DBC range = 23.21 - 24.57 🐻
Grains mostly ↘️

$WHEAT 754 -0.35%
$CORN 674 -0.45%
$SOYB 1526 -0.35%
$SUGAR 21.344 +0.2%

$COFFEE ☕️ 173.25 -0.2%

$DBA range = 19.68 - 20.24 ↔️
#FX rattled by $USD 💪

$EUR 1.077 -0.23%
$GBP 1.204 -0.12%
$AUD 0.69 -0.3%
$USD 103.172
$USDJPY 131.99 +0.62%
$USDCHF 0.924 -0.23%
$USDCAD 1.344 +0.31%
$USDCNY 6.779 +0.05%

#FX vol 10.14

$USD range = 100.87 - 103.31 🐻
$GBP range = 1.192 - 1.249 ♉️
#Cryptocurrencies ↘️ with #bitcoin -2.55% since the Friday close

$BTC 22837 -0.45%
$ETH 1630 unch

#Bitcoin range = 22686 - 24470 ♉️
Good spot to buy if you're ♉️
UST yields ↗️ across the ⤴️
10/2s to -79 bps cycle low
10Y3M to -109 bps

MOVE 98.99

$TNX range = 3.37 - 3.62 🐻
$TLT range = 105.05 - 108.85 ♉️

Global 10Ys 🔺 across the 🌍
UST 3.591
GILT 3.185
BUND 2.268
ITA 4.158
JPN 0.5
AUS 3.489
CAN 2.929
Weekly Buy/Sell signals

Buy
$TNX
$UST2Y

Sell
$DBB
$DBP
$EWW * watch
$EZA
$FM
$FXA
$FXB
$FXC
$GDX
$GLD
$IAK
$INFL
$SLV
$TIP
$URA
$VNM
$XLE
$XLY
Market is trading as though we have a new bout of #inflation under way, which is not evident in the 🧮

👁‍🗨 on $USD and $TNX as they near the top of the range

Remember your pinned tweet; execute on the ranges; and have a super profitable 💰 day!

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Ted Darling

Ted Darling Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @tdarling1

Feb 5
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Macro Review 🧵
02/05/2023

1/9

The #macro market has been hyper focused on growth and inflation dynamics

We got a slew of data showing inflation under control.

Yet one data point on Friday raised havoc with my portfolio.

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2a/9

The Employment Cost Index #ECI came out on Tuesday, just prior to the #FOMC meeting

#ECI +1% Q/Q represented a deceleration in employment costs
#Inflation 🔻
2b/9

Home prices were also out on Tuesday.
At +8.2% y/y, housing costs continue to decline on an ROC basis
#Inflation 🔻
Read 23 tweets
Jan 29
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Macro Review 🧵
01/22/2023

1/9

Don’t you find it amazing how quickly the phrases “Transitory Goldilocks” and “Immaculate Disinflation” have entered the #macro vocabulary?

Where did they come from? Why?
2a/9

Let’s start with “Immaculate Disinflation”

Core #PCE rose .72% in Q4 2022 or +2.88% annualized.

The Fed has to be pleased with this, but given the pace of rate hikes, this is not all that surprising

Chart: Core #PCE
2b/9

Wages have also started to decelerated quickly - now +4.6% y/y

Chart: US average hourly earnings y/y
Read 20 tweets
Jan 27
Hello Friday and the week to date

$GBP +0.12%
$GOLD +0.1%
$USD -0.19%

$TLT +0.73%
$HYG +0.29%
$TNX +0.26%

$COMPQ +3.34%
$NIKK +3.05%
$DAX +0.66%

$DBA +2.16%
#Bitcoin +1.47%
$COPPER +0.47%
$SILVER +038%
$DBC -0.16%
$WTIC -0.77%
$NATGAS -10.13%

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia finished the week on ↗️

$NIKK 27383 +0.05%
$SSEC 🐰
$TWII 14933 +0.05%
$HSI 22689 +0.55%
$KOSPI 2484 +0.62%
$IDX 6899 +0.5%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7494 +0.35%

India ↘️🐻
$BSE 59085 -1.85%
Europe trading ↗️ but tight

$DAX 15147 +0.1%
$FTSE 7770 +0.1%
$CAC 7171 +0.05%
$AEX 750 +0.3%
$IBEX 9039 +0.05%
$MIB 26246 +0.1%
$SMI 11329 +0.1%
$MOEX 2177 +0.45%

$VSTOXX 17.89

$DAX range = 14812 - 15580 ♉️
Read 11 tweets
Jan 15
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Macro Review 🧵
01/15/2023

1/11

Core #CPI running at +3.1% SAAR confirmed #Goldilocks for Q422 and catalyzed a 🚀 in equities, metals, and hydrocarbons

#Core CPI - 3-month SAAR
Dec - 3.1%
Nov - 4.2%
Oct - 5.7%

Chart: #CoreCPI 5.7% 🔻
1a/11

Despite all the recession talk - including my own, the @AtlantaFed #NowCast is projecting Q4 growth of +4.1%, an acceleration.

Growth 🔺 + Inflation 🔻 = #Quad1 #Goldilocks

Chart:
2/11

While #Quad1 #Goldilocks may be good for risk assets, it’s decidedly poor for the $USD, which continued ↘️ and took out the 50% retracement level of 102.12

Chart: $USD -1.64% (w) -9.94% 3M = T = Trend
Read 21 tweets
Jan 13
Hello Friday and the week to date!

$GOLD +1.55%
$GBP +1.08%
$USD -1.59%

$TLT +2.35%
$HYG +1.47%
$TNX -3.36%

$IWM +4.65%
$DAX +4.31%
$SSEC +1.26%
$NIKK +0.56%

#Bitcoin +11.26%
$COPPER +7.42%
$WTIC +6.26%
$NATGAS -0.54%
$SILVER +0.08%

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia closed ↗️ ex-Japan

$NIKK 26119 -1.25%
$SSEC 3195 +1.0%
$TWII 14824 +0.65%
$HSI 21739 +1.05%
$KOSPI 2386 +0.9%
$IDX 6642 +0.2%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7328 +0.65%

India ↗️
$BSE 60276 +0.55%
Europe ↗️♉️

$DAX 15075 +0.1%
$FTSE 7840 +0.6%
$CAC 7009 +0.5%
$AEX 748 +0.8%
$IBEX 8910 +0.95%
$MIB 25831 +0.4%
$SMI 11327 +0.35%
$MOEX 2186 unch

$VSTOXX 17.49 🔻⬅️

$DAX range = 14237 - 15240 ♉️
Read 11 tweets
Jan 6
Hello Friday and the week to date

$USD +1.51%
$GOLD +0.82%
$GBP -1.49%

$TLT +3.74%
$HYG +1.14%
$TNX -1.52%

$DAX +3.68%
$SSEC +2.23%
$NIKK -0.46%
$SPX -0.81%

#Bitcoin +1.37%
$COPPER +0.26%
$SILVER -2.58%
$WTIC -8.22%
$NATGAS -16.78%

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
#ADP private payrolls rose to +230,000 in December.

The initial response in the bond market was to push both the short and long end higher

Realizing job strength = FOMC higher for longer = eventual recession, the long end recovered with the big lower high in $TNX intact.
Asia finished the week mostly ↗️

$NIKK 25974 +0.6%
$SSEC 3158 +0.1%
$TWII 14373 +0.5%
$HSI 20992 -0.3% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2290 +1.1%
$IDX 6685 +0.45%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7110 +0.65%

India ↘️
$BSE 59900 -0.75%
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(