Thread by @SabFis3

I will not speculate about the content of #Putin’s speech. Maybe he will announce a plan to end the war, maybe he won’t. Many people in #Russia do hope he will, for a variety of reasons.

But here are the 2 important things: 🧵(1/7)

#RussiaInvadedUkraine
#StandWithUkraine

1. Whatever he says, he will not take back any of the #annexations since March 2014. Reminder: Russia now illegally claims 20% of #Ukraine’s territory its own. His 2020 constitution not only “allows” Putin to remain in the #Kremlin until 2036,
(2/7)

it expressly forbids giving up any part of “Russia’s state territory”. Needless to say, Putin won’t admit to any of the war crimes committed in Ukraine. Reparations are out of the question. So, whatever Putin may or can offer in the conditions he created for himself
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over the past decade, it will not be acceptable for Ukraine. Obsessed with his own legacy of a "great leader", he has painted himself into a corner that he won’t be able to leave without loss of power of even life. He is pulling Ukraine and his own country into the abyss. (4/7)

2. Putin does not control the situation. He can talk about the end to the war to his heart’s content, but #Ukrainians will decide for themselves whether or not to keep fighting. Putin’s terms have not changed. He still wants to destroy Ukraine’s statehood.
(5/7)

A asymmetric and humiliating ceasefire and ensuing political collapse in Kyiv would be a welcome step in this direction. Ukrainians know that - and they won’t consent.

Putin might pronounce words like “end of the war”, “ceasefire”, “peace”, knowing full well that this will
(6/7)

set off another round of calls for Ukraine to “finally negotiate” in the West. The #Kremlin still hopes that they will be able to split the West and Ukraine. The good thing is that they have failed to do so until now, and they will keep failing in the future.
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I mean #Putin‘s speech to the Federal Assembly in 21 February - sorry about the confusion! 😬