Seems #Germany is upset about the limited number of #Leopard donors to #Ukraine. While I have long been arguing for more aid to Ukraine, I'm somewhat unsure what exactly is the core of the criticism in this case.
The decision to approve exports was good, and #Scholtz et al. deserve credit for it. At the same time, it took months longer than it had to. This discrepancy is at the heart of (at least my) criticism towards #Germany.
Make no mistake, Germany does *a lot*, but every step is accompanied by hand-wringing and vocal concerns about the risk of escalation, which undercut the diplomatic part of it.
When it comes to the #FreeTheLeopard in particular, the discussion has been ongoing for months, and Germany has denied other countries the opportunity to proceed. The "not alone" has been a hollow argument, as it has been other countries asking permission to do something.
"Not without the US" was the real argument, showing that European strategic autonomy wasn't something Germany actually cared for in this case.
The lack of ready plans from other countries is notable. For a few months it has been clear that at some point the Leopards likely would be freed, and having a ready contingency plan for that would seem to have been an obvious move for most operators. is.fi/politiikka/art…
So here I can give German criticism some points. At the same time, "We've changed our mind, why didn't you prepare for that?" isn't necessarily the strongest foundation for critiquing others...
Numbers and firm commitments could be higher, but isn't surprising. I pointed out way back in January that few operators have large numbers available for delivery, unless they're frontline states with cause for ensuring they have strong forces themselves. corporalfrisk.com/2023/01/15/fre…
So far #Poland, #Norway, #Canada, #Spain, and #Portugal have all joined in, as well as the Danish-Dutch-German #Leopard1A5 deal for 100 tanks. I imagine *some* additional tanks will appear as well (*cough* Finland *cough*). corporalfrisk.com/2023/02/11/leo…
I'm not sure what 🇩🇪 was expecting? A number of countries each donating a handful of tanks to ensure critical mass of at least a battalion or two was the low-hanging fruit discussed all along. Anything else (Spain shipping all 2E or Finland all 2A4) would've been a huge surprise.
(#Poland might have been overly vocal about how ready everything was, but they have also sent significant numbers of tanks already and is ready to part with a company of Leopards despite being in the first row, so it's difficult to fault them too much) oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answer…
It seems there's a combination of 1) people talking about "hundreds of Leopards" without detailing versions or users leading to unrealistic expectations, and 2) Germany not feeling appreciated for ending their stalling of deliveries after half a year, both are in play here.
I would advise everyone to take a deep breath. Germany hasn't exactly the goodwill built up to start trashing people, and others could have had their plans ready for the inevitable German flip. Still, the Leopards are now on the move, and they will be an important addition. 🐆

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More from @CorporalFrisk

Feb 13
The Swedish silent service is on quite a visible PR-campaign in Finnish media. First we had a surprisingly long article dealing with a well-publicised exercise from last spring when the Swedish submarine #HMSUppland visited the waters around #Hanko. iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/2…
Some nice pictures from the event. The Finnish #Navy is getting more serious about hunting submarines following the #Hamina-class MLU, and getting a suitable 'target' to train on is key.
Then we got articles in both Swedish and Finnish from a visit by Finnish media to the yard currently building leadship #HMSBlekinge of the #A26-class. No denying @SaabFi likely has other thoughts than just showing off their shipyard in arranging this 😉 svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10027816
Read 6 tweets
Feb 8
100 #Leopard1A5 is good news for #Ukraine, even if it is significantly older than the Leopard 2A6 and a (serious) step below the 2A4. It is however in some ways what Ukraine needs.
The bad news is that Leopard 1 is old, and the prime example is the main armament: the legendary 105 mm Royal Ordnance L7. Once the finest tank gun of the west and fitted to a host of different tanks, it is by now (as are rifled 105 mm guns in general) outdated.
However, on the positive side, so are a lot of the potential targets on the battlefield in Ukraine. The T-62 and T-64 are roughly of the same generation, and a lot of the T-72 running around are not the latest and greatest T-72B3M, but Cold War relics.
Read 13 tweets
Jan 24
Things suddenly start to look interesting. Finnish FM #Haavisto to hold presser on Finnish and Swedish #NATO-membership application in 15 minutes. Ping @patrikoksanen @Cornubot @AWollstad
@patrikoksanen @Cornubot @AWollstad Discussions have been made with Stoltenberg, Swedish FM Billström, and Turkish FM. No issues with Hungary, they assure us they won't be last to ratify us.
Discussions under tri-lateral format has gone well, but now Turkey is rather upset following demonstrations in Stockholm. Haavisto believe this will cause a delay of at least "weeks".
Read 14 tweets
Jan 22
So apparently we are now doing the "Actually, Germany is pretty good and this is all the evil Poles' and Britts' doing". I will disagree.
To begin with, yes, there is a some of truth to the fact that #Germany has done more when it comes to supporting #Ukraine then they get credit for. In particular on the air defence side of things, the Gepards and IRIS-T have made a real impact, to take the obvious example.
It's also correct that no *formal* request for transfer of #Leopard2 has been made, and that while many countries agree that "someone" should give Ukraine Leopards, significantly fewer are happy to provide theirs.
Read 13 tweets
Jan 21
#OSINT-wizard @emilkastehelmi in action in #Kokkola on today's #turpo-seminar. #Ukraine #säkpol Image
Discussing national security these days have a tendency to spark little joy, but it was a first-class event put on by @JanneJukkola and his team and I was truly happy to be part of this #turpo-seminaari on home turf - regardless of how it looks 😅! 📸 courtesy of the hosts Image
For those who missed yesterday's #turpo-seminaari, here's my talk (in Finnish) on how the countries in our neighbourhood react to the War in #Ukraine, and what changes #NATO membership will bring for #Finland. Thanks to @JanneJukkola for posting the clip!
Read 5 tweets
Dec 12, 2022
The shopping spree continues: New 122 mm long-range rockets for our #RM70 bought from Israel. #turpo=#säkpol
Interestingly, while the decision talks about "rockets" and not "missiles", the MoD has earlier talked about #GMLRS/#ERGMLRS as rockets, so wouldn't be sure they are unguided based on that.
My guess is these are 122 mm #ACCULAR, which #Elbit note "the 122mm has a range of
35km with a 20kg warhead and is adaptable to existing platforms. Accular
122mm seamlessly integrates with a wide variety of traditional launchers."
Read 5 tweets

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