Thread by @KumarSeshadri

There Will Be No #WWIII !!!

Headlines in the Western media suggest that the US is determined to impose harsh #economicsanctions on China for allegedly "planning to supply Russia with weapons."

This is actually great news. A 🧵 to explain why. (1/n)

China has denied the allegations, which only say that China is "planning to supply Russia with weapons," not that they have actually supplied weapons. But the US doesn't care about reality, only about its own decisions. Ask #Iraq . There were never any #WMD (2/n)

If China is not supplying weapons to Russia, why sanction China? Because China is an economic lifeline for Russia. China buying Russian energy and natural resources is what helps Russians get everything they need in return. As long as this goes on, sanctions will fail. (3/n)

Essentially, after one year of the war in Ukraine, the US had two choices. One, intensify US involvement in the war. Provide more tanks, fighters, and US servicemen to operate all this equipment, since the Ukrainians are unfamiliar with them. Get Europe to send land forces. (4/n)

But this would mean #WWIII If the West were to band together against Russia in Ukraine, China would join the war militarily on Russia's side, because it knows that if Russia is militarily defeated by the West, China will be next. There's the danger of a #NuclearWar (5/n)

There's the additional complication that support for Ukraine and for American military assistance to Ukraine in the US is waning. With Republican control of Congress, Biden would find it very hard to spend more on weapons to Ukraine. (6/n)

So the choice of increasing military involvement is fraught with political and existential peril for Biden.

That's why he has opted for the second choice: sanctions against China.

(7/n)

If the decision to impose economic sanctions on Russia and ban them from SWIFT in the belief that these sanctions would cripple Russia's economy was a huge miscalculation, sanctioning China would be the mother of all miscalculations. (8/n)

This is because Russia and China together control so much of the world's natural resources. Without them, most European and American industry would come to a grinding halt. Additionally, China is the world's largest market. (9/n)

China is also the manufacturing powerhouse of the world. Most products found in American and European shelves are Made in China. Without Chinese goods, the cost of living in the West will rise to unsustainable levels. (10/n)

China also manufactures components at world-class quality at a fraction of the cost of European and American manufacturers. Many products made in Europe and the US use cheap Chinese components to reduce cost. With sanctions, American goods will become too expensive. (11/n)

There's an important reason the world has come to China for manufacturing over the years, and it's not cost alone. It's cost plus quality. Chinese manufacturing is just a shade lower in quality than the best Swiss manufacturing, but at a third to the fourth of the price. (12/n)

Biden is leaning towards sanctions on China because, unlike more war assistance to Ukraine, it will not cost HIM anything. He will not have to beg Congress for a spending bill and won't have to increase the debt ceiling. (13/n)

But while sanctions will not cost Biden anything, it will COST AMERICAN TAXPAYERS A LOT. Their cost of living will skyrocket, unemployment will rise because the Chinese market will be off limits to US products, and the Chinese will stop buying US agricultural products. (14/n)

Sanctioning China will also push the global South together and accelerate the development of a Multipolar World.

Most likely, the first step in the implementation of us sanctions will be the theft of the $870 billion in #USTreasury Bonds that China currently holds. (15/n)

If the US does this incredibly stupid move, the rest of the World will rapidly dump the dollar as the reserve currency because it knows that the US is a capricious power that cannot be trusted to behave responsibly. After Russia and China, they could be next. (16/n)

If the world stops buying US treasuries, this makes the $31.4 trillion that the US currently holds a huge millstone around its neck, a giant albatross that the US cannot cast off, because it cannot print more dollars to service this debt. (17/n)

What will follow is a wave of bankruptcies and defaults, at the personal, individual business, city, state, and national levels in the US. The US economy will implode under the weight of its debt. (18/n)

The rest of the world will stop accepting the dollar and move to a world where there is no dominant currency. The Bretton Woods agreement and the petrodollar will finally be buried for good. The Saudis are already accepting Yuan payments for oil. (19/n)

As with Russia, only the "West," that is, the US, Canada, UK, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Korea - will sign on to the sanctions. The rest of the world will continue to do business with both China and Russia. (20/n)

China bracketed with Russia means that the rest of the world need not worry about doing business with Russia any longer. If the West blocks them, they can always get what they need from China. The US will lose Africa and Asia for good. (21/n)

So the West will be economically destroyed, and with it, the power of the West to do more evil, without a single shot being fired and without a World War III. (22/n)

If #Biden goes through with this, I think we should nominate him for the #NobelPeacePrize (23/n)

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