And yes... Eat-out-to-help-out was being defended. But on what grounds? What was the welfare analysis behind it? Who were the experts consulted? What was their incentive structure? I must admit, I did feel attacked for doing what I think I should as an academic: research. #EOTHO
@jdportes@peterjukes@BylineTimes@guardian In all of this we have to question why this stuff is coming out now. I am just observing but it does seem to me the WhatsApp messages are being used to dismantle the competition and the EOTHO story is being "buried" with Johnsons' party stories dominating. Its super interesting
@jdportes@peterjukes@BylineTimes@guardian as there could have been a "cooperative" equilibrium of "silence". But that was not enforceable. And so its a "free for all" that will damage the public trust even further. All of this is eroding state capacity. After it has been hollowed out by #austerity. I have a few thoughts
@jdportes@peterjukes@BylineTimes@guardian on why and how #austerity happened. And it showcases IMO the damage that poor quality research together with a dose of ideology and heavy assumptions can cause. But I am for sure not the first one who has had these thoughts. But because our sector is subject to gatekeeping & the
@jdportes@peterjukes@BylineTimes@guardian incentive structure with "top journals" and "rankings" effectively silence many reasonable voices and produce "under-production" of knowledge. They erode incentives to meaningfully train, up-skill people and sharing "how my type of research is done". But in order to get past the
@jdportes@peterjukes@BylineTimes@guardian professional gatekeepers one needs to play ball. Because only this way can one get into the "journals" to then attract serious research funding to "scale up". But trust me, the bureaucracy around this is just bonkers. And yes, there are alternatives: radical transparency. And yes
@jdportes@peterjukes@BylineTimes@guardian I think this includes some of the most prestigious funding bodies awarding the most prestigious grants. Anyways, its weekend, & its about the only quiet time in which I can actually get work done these days. Yes, that is making me a bit sad. But my gut tells me it's important.
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Let me take you through the journey of writing this research paper that documents that #EatOutToHelpOut was causing more #COVID19 infections at a time when a vaccine was in sight.
I usually dont do this because as an academic, the politics should be
"irrelevant" to me. The timing of all of this #whatsappleak is dubious. My interpretation as a "citizen" (in quotes because of #Brexit I cant become British without giving up my German nationality), is that this is an attempt to attack PM Sunak who found a #Brexit compromise
on Northern Ireland with EU. My comments are much more around the process of how as a society we are handling data/evidence/research. And we need to develop a more healthy relationship with research and evidence and "empower the experts". After we had a decade of ...
After 5 months of intense work the @FT published this piece that involved a ton of hands-on work. Check it out ➡️ ig.ft.com/uk-energy-effi…. It looks sleek but I do want to raise a few further points that I think could be discussed differently #EnergyCrisis#EnergyBills#energy
Point 1: We provided bill estimates under multiple price scenarios. Treating the #EnergyPriceGuarantee as the "price" I find problematic. The EPG implies a #EnergySubsidy benefitting mostly the well off that we all need to fund through #austerity and/or higher #taxation. So this
does not represent the full economic cost. It also ignores carbon prices which we all need should be MUCH higher. Using estimates based on the Oct 2022 Ofgem price cap ~ £3500 per year which is inline with predictions for most of 2023 (see forecasts from @CornwallInsight).
So, @Jeremy_Hunt now did a full and welcome u-turn on the #minibudget2022. And they are starting to tackle another policy that needs fixing, the #EnergyPriceguarantee#EPG. Why should this happen? This is a story that can ultimately be summarised in these two pictures.... 1/..
On the left, we have a classic end-terrace house. On the right, well, you have a mansion. The big difference: energy consumption. The left needs around 15,000 kWh per year, the right one, at least 70,000 kWh. How does this compare to the average UK household? Well: 2/..
The graph highlights one thing: energy consumption is strongly increasing in household income. But even in the highest income group there is huge variation. 50% of households even in top income group consume less than half as much energy than the top 5% in this group. 3/..
I start sounding like a broken record. The issue of UK is not primarily due to a high level of taxation but due to poor use of public money & the poor quality public goods bought in return. I have documented this across numerous pieces of careful research... here is a short 🧵⬇️
Exhibit 1: Most of austerity was a drag on growth. In "Did #Austerity Cause #Brexit?" I show that austerity itself was contractionary and the tax that could have been collected on higher incomes without austerity would have easily saved as much as austerity was projected to save.
Exhibit 2: Housing benefit cuts (FYI: these benefits are only so expensive as the UK's economic model is build on housing shortage)... but there weren't much savings as councils had to deal with the fallout: higher homeless prevention spending and putting up people in privately
Does #COVID19 crowd out care for non COVID patients in the #NHS? Has this led to a loss of lives? Are the numbers negligible? The short answers are: yes, yes & no!
Paper ➡️ bit.ly/33XMyHB & a long🧵on how we capture non COVID19 excess deaths & much more ⬇️ 1/n
Lets start with a headline result: we estimate that for every 30 #COVID deaths there is at least one avoidable non COVID excess death in 🏴 hospitals. To arrive at this we use cool #NHS data which makes for a great #EconTwitter#econometrics#DataScience teaching example. 2/n
The #NHS has population individual level hospital episode data (HES) linked to death certificates. For each admitted patient, they predict P(Death|X). This is an out-of-sample prediction coming from Lasso logistic regression model trained on data from the last 3 years. 3/n
What is the epidemiological impact of a #falsenegative#COVID test? An important question in a high vaxx/low NPI context, but one that cannot be studied in a experiment for obvious reasons. Enter the UK, a reliable supplier of #naturalexperiments. 🧵⬇️
➡️bit.ly/3DhqQv5
On Oct 15, @UKHSA suspended an #Immensa lab, because of community reports of neg PCR tests following a pos lateral flow. There was loads of excellent reporting e.g. by @rowenamason@tomjs@JamieGrierson. NHS TT estimates that 43,000 individuals may have been given a .. 2/N
false negative result most concentrated in South West of England. Even across all of England, a notable increase in both absolute # and relative % of PCR tests matched to a positive LFD tests producing a negative result from early Sept to early Oct 3/N