Reports suggest that chemical poisonings occurred in 116 separate schools--primarily girls' schools--in #Iran today. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario wherein the regime isn’t complicit in failing to protect these children. Here’s why: (1) #مسمومیت_دانشآموزان
Officials have blamed the poisonings on foreign actors. Others have suggested the attacks were the work of domestic groups who either aimed to punish girls sympathetic to the #Mahsa_Amini movement or sought to discourage girls from going to school. (2)
It's unclear why--if foreign actors are indeed behind ongoing poisonings--the regime has not deployed the surveillance and security capabilities that it used to violently suppress protests during the #Mahsa_Amini movement to protect Iranian girls. (3)
It’s also unclear why a foreign organization able to conduct complex, countrywide operations like this would risk agents and networks to make schoolgirls ill. (4)
Many of these schools have security cameras, too. One girl (who experienced poisoning symptoms on two separate occasions) told the @bbc that her principal said the school’s CCTV had been “down for a week” when asked about a possible investigation. (5)
Other girls reported being told to immediately return to class following a reported attack (those who were not experiencing symptoms), an almost unimaginable response in most countries. (6)
Some students reported seeing #Basij members entering the facility before reported poisonings. CTP previously assessed that the regime is tolerating the country-wide campaign against #IranianSchoolgirls and those responsible for the attacks. (7)
Footage shows #Iranian plainclothes officers violently forcing two female students into a car at an impacted school today, one of whom is shown crying out for her mother. (8)
It’s difficult to say which chemical agent students are describing. A doctor who is treating impacted students suggested the chemical may be a weak organophosphate agent. (9)
A doctor in a #Tehran ICU observed that the compounds used to poison students were "mixed gases" that aren’t available to ordinary people in a recent interview. (10)
At the very least, the #IslamicRepublic has de-prioritized protecting some of the most vulnerable segments of its people, which is consistent with its egregious treatment of Iranian girls in recent months. (11)
None of this is, unfortunately, anomalous. The #IslamicRepublic has killed children—one of whom was 9 years old—in its violent suppression of ongoing unrest and it continues to brutally suppress girls whom it suspects might hold anti-regime views. (12)
NEW | #Russian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a turning movement against certain parts of #Bakhmut but have not yet forced Ukrainian forces to withdraw and will likely not be able to encircle the city soon.
The #WagnerGroup reportedly opened at least three new recruitment centers at #Russian sports clubs between March 2 and 4, possibly to augment Wagner’s recruitment base after losing access to prisoner recruits.
Russian forces reportedly continued offensive operations near #Svatove on March 4.
Security forces sustained increased pressure against Abdol Hamid and his supporters for the second consecutive week in #Zahedan, which could fuel further sectarian tensions. (2/6)
President Ebrahim #Raisi is expanding his efforts to deflect blame for internal crises onto Iran’s foreign enemies rather than taking personal accountability. (3/6)
Russian authorities continued efforts to portray Russia as the only safe operator of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), likely to constrain the IAEA presence at the ZNPP and compel the de facto recognition of Russian ownership of the ZNPP. (2/4)
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. (3/4)
The regime is taking short-term measures to address economic grievances that will likely exacerbate #Iran’s economic crisis in the long run.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir #Abdollahian gave an interview with #CNN on March 1 likely in an attempt to convince the United States to return to the suspended nuclear negotiations.
NEW | The major phase of Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast is underway, & Russia likely lacks sufficient uncommitted reserves to dramatically increase the scale or intensity of the offensive this winter. The latest from CTP & @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces are strengthening frontline positions west and northwest of Kreminna. (2/4)
Russian forces likely secured marginal gains in the northern suburbs of Bakhmut and in the eastern outskirts of the city. Russian forces reportedly continued offensive operations along the western outskirts of Donetsk city and around Vuhledar. (3/4)