Thread by @thomasdggeddes

One year after #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine, Chinese experts assess the war's impact on 🇪🇺-🇨🇳 and 🇪🇺-🇺🇸relations and predict what may lie ahead.

Hint: Uncertainty prevails...

KEY TAKEAWAYS 🧵
sinification.substack.com/p/eu-china-rel…

1⃣ The #UkraineWar has hobbled the EU’s push for #StrategicAutonomy, but its desire to pursue this goal remains.

2⃣ The war has increased the EU’s dependence on and tilt towards the #UnitedStates. This trend is largely expected to continue.

3⃣ The war has accelerated the EU’s shift of emphasis to “competitor” and “rival” in its triadic “partner-competitor-rival” positioning on 🇨🇳.

4⃣ Beijing’s stance in the #UkraineRussiaWar has been misunderstood and has contributed to Europe’s growing antagonism towards Beijing.

5⃣ The influence of pro-US (and #China-sceptic) countries in central, eastern and northern Europe over EU decision-making has increased considerably over the past year. This is not good for 🇪🇺-🇨🇳 relations.

6⃣ The EU is beset with economic, political and social problems and the situation continues only to get worse. This is detrimental to the EU’s pursuit of #StrategicAutonomy.

7⃣ The bloc remains a key player in international relations but its strength and influence are declining when compared with other major powers, notably the #USA and #China.

8⃣ Nevertheless, the EU is often seen as key to alleviating the diplomatic and economic pressure brought by the #US on China.

9⃣ Areas of cooperation with #Europe still exist: global governance, climate change and economic cooperation tend to be the most frequently cited.

🔟 Past and upcoming visits to #Beijing by European leaders signal that Europe still wants (or needs) to strengthen economic ties and engage with Beijing even if this means going against US wishes.

1⃣1⃣ The EU’s economy is in the doldrums. Deepening economic ties will continue to be one of the keys to fostering closer relations with the EU and its members states. But the pull of the 🇨🇳 market will not prevent the EU from reducing its dependence on #China in certain areas.

1⃣2⃣ 🇪🇺-🇺🇸 ties may have strengthened over the past year but rifts remain and could widen again in future. EU-US economic competition + European distrust of #Washington should encourage 🇪🇺 in its pursuit of strategic autonomy and prevent it from tilting too far towards the US.

1⃣3⃣ #France and #Germany remain the two key “pragmatic” countries that China should continue to engage with, though they have less sway over the EU than they used to. France continues to be seen as the country most aligned with China’s hope for a more independent EU.

1⃣4⃣ Germany’s forthcoming China strategy will act as a bellwether of 🇪🇺-🇨🇳 relations.

1⃣5⃣ Outlook for 2023: Uncertainty prevails. Assessments range from the pessimistic to the cautiously optimistic but adding a positive twist to such predictions is often de rigueur in #China.

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