Thread by @AgoraEW

📣 New EU Gas Exit Pathway: EU can halve its #fossilgas use by 2030 & completely phase it out by 2050, with less renewable #hydrogen than planned in #REPowerEU while fully ensuring security of supply, without disruptive behavioral changes. Findings ⬇️ bit.ly/3VACYBo 1/9

An accelerated #fossilgas phase-out is possible through structural demand reductions in #energy, #buildings & #industry➡️ key measures: a quick ramp-up of #renewableenergy, electrification and energy efficiency. 2/9

In the power sector, the fastest way to reduce gas demand is by ramping up wind & solar. Aim: 70% renewables-based power generation by 2030 & 85% by 2040. Deep geothermal & large-scale heat pumps will also help reduce gas demand in district heating generation. 3/9

Buildings sector could be nearly fossil gas-free by 2040. Key measures: energy efficiency & electrification mostly through + 40 m heat pumps by 2030 & 80 m by 2040, district heating. Needed: robust policies to drive green investment & prevent lock-in of fossil fuel equipment. 4/9

Industry: Chemical, iron & steel, machinery & transport equipment sectors could produce without fossil gas by 2040. Key levers: direct #electrification, increased #efficiency & later renewables-based hydrogen & bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (#BECCS). 5/9

If direct electrification is prioritised & H2 reserved for no-regret applications, EU’s renewable hydrogen demand until 2030 could be 80% lower than foreseen in REPowerEU: 116 TWh compared to 666 TWh = more cost-effective. The #REPowerEU hydrogen target should thus be revised.6/9

With an accelerated gas phase-out, the EU could cut its emissions by 60% by 2030 and 89% by 2040, relative to 1990 level ➡️ the mitigation potential should be reflected in the upcoming debate on the EU’s 2040 climate target – a 90% target is feasible. 7/9

EU Gas Exit Pathway presupposes annual investment in buildings, industry & energy of roughly 225 €bn up to 2030 & 285 €bn 2031-2050. EU funds for green transition provide a base; when #NextGenEU & REPowerEU end in 2026, national gov’s need to prepare for further investments.8/9

The publication “Breaking free from fossil gas: A new path to a climate-neutral Europe” lays out a detailed EU Gas Exit Pathway developed by @_Artelys, TEP Energy & @Wupperinst and is written by Agora Energiewende. Download the publication here: bit.ly/3VACYBo 9/9