Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 21 8 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1. @JoeBiden's comment about how #Russia should be concerned about the #F16s, is spot-on and consistent with my view that, when #Ukraine controls its skies the Russia forces will forced to withdraw. I report on the #Syrian war to defeat #ISIS. With US air power, light militia
2. forces were able to defeat a force of over 70,000 crazed ISIS terrorists. #SDF are brave, disciplined and willing to fight but until they had US air support they were unable to gain traction and had their backs against the wall in #Kobane.
3. I closely observed the way they were able to advance and that informs me on how the battle in Ukraine will change. First, the trench war will be over. Any Russian trench complex will become an easy target for massive US JDAMS that Russian forces won't survive. When Ukraine
4. forces currently come into contact with a Russian position they need to advance with #infantry and some #tanks & IFVs supported by artillery. Dug-in Russians are able to withstand most attacks and hold their ground. With skies full of Russian jets & SAMS weeks long battle
5. ensues. With US fighters, it will go like this. Ukraine advances on a Russian position & comes into contact. Ssing a cheap tablet device the forward controller drops a pin on the Russian position. In a matter of minutes a 1,000lb JDAM will drop on the Russians
6. and the Ukrainian force moves to the next contact. ISIS are religious fanatics jacked up on Captigon willing to blow themselves up at a moments notice. But they finally surrendered en masse after enduring the relentless and inescapable advance of the JDAMs.
7. @POTUS knows how this will work and Russia's forces in Ukraine will all be wiped out. It will take months but the outcome once the Ukrainians have air supremacy over their territory is pre-ordained. Russia will be defeated.
8. And @JoeBiden can say to the Russians, "Don't say I didn't warn you." And he warned them today.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

May 22
1. In second E. Jean Carroll case that was removed from state court, Ms Carroll filed a motion for leave to amend her complaint to add the defamatory statements made after verdict and harmonize pleading with jury findings. Link to redline. timinhonolulu.com/2023/05/22/1-i…
2. The proposed first amended complaint adopts the jury finding of sexual assault that globally replaces the rape allegations.

#45 is about to learn a new legal term: collateral estoppel.
3. The courts have developed doctrines that are meant to prevent taking two-bites of the apple. When an issue has been decided, was actually litigated, is necessary to the judgment and between the same parties or those in privity, that fact is decided and can't be relitigated.
Read 7 tweets
May 22
1. We understandably view the term propaganda in a negative light. But when I studied it many years ago, it was defined by type. This is the good type. Truthful official statement that has a defined purpose or goal. And with a hint that something may be coming. Perhaps very soon.
2. I remain of the view, reported earlier, that the step back from Bakhmut had a clear strategic purpose. Wagner is now able to disengage. The Russian forces rushing to fill the imminent vacuum are all weakening other areas. By reaching out to the individual Russian fighter
3. with options that are covered by the Geneva convention, and with the history of Ukrainian AF following the law of armed conflict, even in the face of Russian AF violations, they've set the conditions for mass surrenders. I fall back to my experience in the war to defeat ISIS.
Read 4 tweets
May 21
1. As the final Ukrainian forces withdrew from #Bakhmut towards #Ivaniske Russia continued to send forces to reinforce Bakhmut's flanks giving #Ukrainian #HIMARS crews many opportunities to attack and destroy Russian troops and equipment in transit.
2. Friday's attack on the Russian forces near #Mariupol turned out to be an underground command and control HQ for #Vuhledar and #Zaporizhia forces that resulted in the deaths of 24 Russian forces and 37 wounded. More long-range strikes on other targets in an around Image
3. #Mariupol resulted in large losses of equipment. Strike reported in #Tokmak was confirmed but awaits details. In #Donetsk HIMARS strikes destroyed as many as 10 T-90 tanks east of Mar'inka. Rapid redeployment of Russian forces has given Ukraine many targets of opportunity. Image
Read 6 tweets
May 20
1. As I had guessed, the attack near the airport in Mariupol killed 150 Russian troops in these buildings. Ukraine has begun to strike Russian forces forming in large numbers to be sent to Bakhmut as the battle for control continues amid the failing Russian flanks. Image
2. Ukraine has begun to focus on destroying rail lines supplying Russian forces in southern Ukraine. Today Ukraine used a small drone swarm to strike near the Russian rail hub at ##Dzhankoi in northern #Crimea causing a derailment on the critical rail line. Image
3. This followed a claimed sabotage attack on a rail line further south in Crimea near #Simferopol at #Chystenke that also caused a derailment. Image
Read 9 tweets
May 19
1. U.S. Will Support F-16 Training for Ukraine nytimes.com/live/2023/05/1…
2. We have already supplied Ukraine with components of a US doctrine air-superiority campaign. They have HARMS but lack the US planes to use them to their full capability. They have MALDS that are being used in Luhansk that mimic aircraft to draw the Russian
3. anti-air missiles to fire at drones. We would deploy JSOW glide bombs to use to take out the missile batteries. SDBS can also fit that role. The last piece is US fighter aircraft to launch the HARMs, SDBs and take on the Russian fighter aircraft.
Read 4 tweets
May 19
1. Thursday saw #Russian tactical situation worsen around #Bakhmut. Despite #Prigozhin's warnings to the Russian command of the need to reinforce Russian flank at #SakkoiVantsetti, the updated map indicates that Ukraine opened this new line of attack and was already successful. Image
2. The loss of this key position will allow the Ukrainians to move south towards #Bakhmut over very favorable ground. In preparation Ukraine conducted artillery strikes on #Paraskoviika and #Krasnopolivka.
In the south Wagner moved to reinforce the approach to #Klishchiivka with
3. prisoner and mobilized forces that quickly suffered heavy casualties from HIMARS strikes. While the Russian north and southern flanks continue to disintegrate, the Ukrainians have apparently begun a tactic of falling back, out the the area of expected Russian artillery Image
Read 6 tweets

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