Cantillon Consulting Profile picture
Jun 8 10 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
A disparate cluster of interests -some venal, some ideological, some quasi-religious- have found common expression in the issue of #Climate™️. Too much, intellectually, financially, emotionally, politically has been sunk into it to allow for honest discussion.
1/x
Even minor scepticism or attempts at technical or economic discussion start by begging the question of whether ANY of this game is worth the candle; all include the Insh’allah of “...while climate change is accelerated and we must (!) address the problem at once...”
2/x
If we start from the false premise that the threat is both pressing and existential, then obviously we narrow the choice to a menu of ‘solutions’ which involve vast expenditure, radical social upheaval, and severe limitations on personal liberty.
3/x
That immediately opens the way for rent-grubbers, technocratic dreamers, Totentanz nihilists, and Messiahs of both Right & Left to ride the anti-#carbon train to civilisational upheaval.
If we supposedly face utter doom, we are left to arguing the small change in a-
4/x
-multi-$trillion bill, we can evidently not work patiently to devise better ways of doing things but must grasp at the first Ersatz alternative, no matter how infeasible or inefficient it is; no matter how great the OTHER costs to the environment, much less the pocketbook.
5/x
That is indeed a process by which, as a fellow commentator here astutely noted, the ground is made fertile for all manner of false prophets, snake-oil salesmen, indulgence sellers, cranks, and schemers to spring up and choke the life from our bounteous civilisation.
6/x
I have often sourly quipped that we have only X years to save us, who live on the planet, from those who never cease to wail that we have “X years to save The Planet™️”.

Sadly, that interval X is becoming progressively and alarmingly shorter.
7/x
Those leading this rush to ruin are also becoming emboldened as all policies converge on this one illusory goal of ‘salvation’. They are becoming more radical, less tolerant of dissent, less sensitive to popular discontent -C19 taught them well how THAT could be overriden!
8/x
Soon, the steps being taken will be well nigh irreversible, the diktats drastically shrinking our horizons irrevocable.

The Dystopia of being herded, monitored, rationed, artificially nourished, censored - all within a digitally-fenced Gulag/Ghetto is no longer only sci-fi.

9/x
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More from @CantillonCH

Jun 5
Smith, for all his virtues, here begs the question of what determines prices. If it were always simply at the whim of the producer why would such individuals and firms limit themselves to (1.05)^n? Why not 1.1? 1.2? 2? 200? 2000?

If each stage could only reap its 5%, why...
...would each not strive to acquire all those identifiably up- and downstream of it, collapsing the very division of labour Smith so correctly lauded?

And what of the VALUE of these so easily dictated profits? If the final price rises exponentially, the entrepreneur’s return...
...turns to dust in his hands: his 5% surplus buys only 1/(1.05)^[n-1] finished goods in the worst case, so who benefits? And where does the money come from to pay such a pyramid of rising purchase and sale prices if not from the REAL #inflation determinant - expanding credit!?
Read 5 tweets
Jun 3
Now, children, ask yourselves what the Treasury will do with that $1.4tln.
(Hint: it will not be locked in a vault in Iron Mountain)
Next, ask what the successive orders of recipients of that $1.4tln will do with their booty.
(Hint 2: no mattresses will be stuffed) ....
So, class, you can see that -to the extent the banks do *not* create extra credit to accommodate the USTs- we will DIVERT ‘liquidity’, not destroy it - and some of the very same Co.s you’re buying today will see revenues increase even as others’ will fall....
Not saying such a shift will be free of consequences -nor denying that some of those outcomes may aggravate unsuspected vulnerabilities- but prima facie doom is to be avoided...
Read 4 tweets
May 8
Since the recent event with arguably the largest echo was the #FOMC decision, it's called - what else- "The Pause That Refreshes"
1/n
#FRB
#FederalReserve Image
The first thing to notice is that goods prices have broadly stabilised and volumes are fairly flat - in other words, #NGDP has ceased its torrid pace of increase. Service prices are still elevated but #payroll cost increase is slowing.
2/n Image
The #ISM #PMI showed an uptick but is still below 50 which implies that revenue growth is NOT about to accelerate again. Again, slower #inflation & flatline volume = an end to the boom, but not yet a bust.
3/n Image
Read 15 tweets
Feb 14
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @steve_sedgwick for the chat on #SquawkBox this morning!

Short and sweet today, but I hope it was of some interest. The notes I put together ahead of time will follow in this thread...
1/x
First of all, it's #ValentinesDay and SOMEONE is going to get massacred today when the #CPI is released, so naturally:-

2/x
Roses are red, violets are blue,
JayPow doesn't know
And neither do you.

#inflation's effects are not as universal as they were, but does that mean we can all now relax?

3/x
Read 15 tweets
Feb 6
Agreed. The singular advantage of money as a near-universally acceptable, reliable medium of exchange is that it breaks the need to know and trust counterparts all along the chain of trade & production. 1/x
This not only expands -and hence enriches- the network of exchange (think Adam Smith or “I, Pencil”) but removes node-occupying middlemen and toll-exactors. Efficiency increases, but transparency and fairness, too. 2/x
Once we have #CBDC-s -coupled to #Agenda2030 #IoT tracking of ‘#carbon’, meat protein, ‘circular economy’, low food miles, etc, we will have subjected ourselves to an intrusive, permanent rationing where a tax collector, a camp guard, and a Levitican Inquisitor...
3/x
Read 11 tweets
Sep 30, 2022
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @cnbcKaren for this morning's chat on #SquawkBox.

I did TRY to find something positive to say - honest, folks!

Following are the notes I sent the team before the show:-
🧵1/x
Ok. So here goes...

2/x
Something I've mentioned on here: the enormous scale of Europe's energy problem runs into the €trillions. The #AmpelDesGrauens "Doppel-Wums" -'bazooka' - relief package is €200bln & doubts are *already* being voiced whether will suffice.
3/x
Read 14 tweets

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