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Kyle @HNIJohnMiller
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
cnn.com/2018/01/30/pol…

Ok, so, real talk time. I do not understand where the hell the Blue Wave talk is coming from. For one, even assuming the House toss-ups go to the Democrats, which would be horrendous losses by any measure for the GOP, they STILL need an additional 5 wins.
THAT is assuming the Democrats lose NONE of their races for the House.
The Senate it is even more ridiculous. On top of losing NONE of their 26 races, including the 2 Democrats in Independents clothing, to even get a simple majority they need to steal HALF of the GOP seats, and besides the 2 toss ups and one lean it is all solid R.
I mean, I'm going off of the numbers that CNN is putting out (which they apparently shamelessly stole from elsewhere), and they are trying their hardest to convince everyone else a Blue Wave is coming. HOW?!? What fantasy land do they live in that such a sweep is even possible?
This is just operating in a vacuum, ignoring the tax cuts, @LarrySchweikart's point that the sexual harassment payout fund is going to devastate Dems, Muh Russia collapsing as we speak, the Awan trial.
The whole notion of a Blue Wave... its insanity. Pure and simple insanity.
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1) You're assuming Democrats act independently. This is incorrect. I understand why you might think this way, because that's how the GOP behaves, but there's a key difference between the GOP and the Dems.
2) The GOP has a large network of cooperating interest groups that all are moving in the same general direction in terms of candidates that GOP candidates have to interact with.

The Dems filter ALL their campaign donations through political apparatuses managed by party leaders
3) Effectively, this means that if Pelosi, Schumer, or a neoliberal equally high up gives the thumbs down, they turn off the campaign donation spigot for a Democrat overnight.
Read 5 tweets
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1) Trump can, but does not want, to declare a national emergency in order to build the wall. It is a very nice position to be in, really, knowing that he can get what he wants one way or the other. But he still wants it to go through congress. Why?
2) Because he wants a Republican congress and senate again after 2020. Right now, he's on track to win 2020. He's an incumbent in a good economy, and right now the markets both like a deadlocked government AND is now immune to the shocks that plagued the Obama shutdowns.
3) But he can't have another round of House and Senate elections like what we saw for 2018. We didn't bleed as much as we could have and even edged out a gain in the Senate, and Trump's name will be on the ballot, but the GOP isn't going to save itself, they're incapable of it.
Read 9 tweets
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1) Who’s on the attack? Its a question that’s asked thousands of times every day. Usually its asked as ‘who’s the aggro deck’, when people are playing competitive card games, which is where I learned the concept.
2) Essentially, in a one on one competition, there are two strategies. Offense, and defense. Nice and simple. The offense aggresively goes after their goals, the defense will prevent their opponents from achieving their goals until the defense can achieve its goals.
3) Whoever does best at their strategy, wins.

So what happens when both competitors go into a match intending to be on the offense? What happens when both intend to be on the defense?
Read 28 tweets

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Ok real talk: I give plenty of speeches and the nerves beforehand never fully go away for me. Never let anyone convince you that experiencing nerves means you shouldn’t be up there. You absolutely do! Here are some awesome benefits:
Those same nerves that make you feel anxious or give you stomach problems kick in your ability to think more clearly. You’re literally more able to think more clearly from the adrenaline. You know what else?
I see tons of speaker lounges. The speakers that are more calm beforehand are not necessarily giving the better talks. I see no correlation. My theory is that the people who are nervous are appreciating the time and attention of the audience. They want to make it stellar.
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Immigration & Customs Enforcement—more commonly known as ICE, is a law enforcement agency of the federal government of the U.S. tasked to enforce the immigration laws of the United States & to investigate criminal and terrorist activity of foreign nationals residing in the U.S.
ℹ️ICE has two primary components: Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) and Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO). It is an agency under the jurisdiction of Homeland Security and was established in 2003 following the 9/11 tragedy.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Immi…
ICE was designed to keep us safe from terrorists—for instance, the terrorists who took over the planes on 9/11 were living undetected in the U.S. for over a year.

Pls read this thoroughly before commenting. The Trump administration has corrupted this agency to do horrific acts.
Read 32 tweets
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💥Wanted to re-post @SenFranken's 25 questions for Judge Brett Kavanaugh from facebook in a more twitter-friendly format:

⚡️This is what the #Democrats are missing.

➡️Intro & question 1:
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➡️Questions 2 & 3:
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➡️Questions 4 & 5:
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Despite big wins on election day for #Democrats, a small group of people continue to argue for major changes to the party through the Dem Unity Commission. Some proposed changes are getting rid of superdelegates and more caucuses. Let's discuss what these changes could mean /1
One proposed change is to remove super delegates from the primary nominating process for president. Supers are mostly elected representatives and major party members who can vote for whomever they want at the convention /2 dailykos.com/stories/2008/2…
Super delegates have never overturned the popular vote but do provided a fail-safe option in case the party needs them (Trump anyone?). They also help diversity in delegates because people dont need to compete w/ elected reps to go to the convention /3
Read 17 tweets
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Ok, some real talk on Bill Clinton and those saying he should have resigned over the Lewinsky scandal...
1. In a word- no. You are wrong, and offensively so to me. I won't even consider voting for @SenGillibrand over this. I already thought Yglesias was a tool, but this reinforces that.
2. What Bill Clinton did was adultery. Nothing more, nothing less. I do not support criminalizing adultery. Sex some of us find offensive but not illegal does not bother me.
Read 22 tweets
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I'm at Water's Edge Brewery in Lake Ridge, Virginia tonight. Six of the seven VA House of Delegates seats here are held by Republicans. Tonight, that may change wildly.
Those seats in Prince William County, Virginia's second most populous, are a test of the anti-Trump grassroots movements spurred on by the Democratic party and progressive groups.
Of 8 groups, like @MoveOn, @BoldProgressive and @TheDLCC, that made endorsements in VA House races, 41% of their endorsements came to six Democrats challenging Republican incumbents in this county.
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