Let's talk gun ownership and statistics. More precisely: the unseen power of very small probabilities.
Every gun in circulation has a small probability to be used in a situation where one side believes bolstering the argument with the threat of violence gives him (sic) the upper hand.
Every gun in circulation has an even smaller probability to not be used in an argument, but to forestall the argument. Your chances of survival go up dramatically if you shoot first.
Every gun in circulation has a very very small probability to be used in a surprise attack. Even smaller: in a surprise attack on an unarmed, unwary group of people. In a population of over 300 million people and over 300 million guns, that tiny probability still adds up.
Most serious pro-gun ownership arguments are couched in good guy vs bad guy scenarios. We shouldn't underestimate the validity of such arguments. But: they ignore some very small probabilities.
Every gun in your possession has a very small probability to turn you from good guy to bad guy. Assessments of what's just are subjective. Every good guy gun also has a not-so-small probability to fall into the hands of a bad guy. Most guns are bearer instruments.
Every gun in the possession of a good guy also has a very small probability to fall into the hands of a good kid that can't handle guns. Toddlers even. Small probabilities add up.
Every gun in circulation has a small probability to turn a good guy meets good guy situation into a potentially bad guy meets potentially bad guy situation. A small fraction of good guy vs good guy encounters end up with one good guy dead, and one bad guy walking away. Too many.
Most cops are good guys. A tiny fraction is not. Most citizens are good, law-abiding citizens. Most gun owners are law-abiding citizens. The assessment whether the other side is a good guy or a bad guy with a gun takes fractions of a second, using very unreliable visual cues.
When I was living in the US, I had local drivers licenses, but in every traffic stop situation I would show my German drivers license first, to signal two things: 1. I learned how to drive, 2. I'm unarmed. The reaction to that was always palpable.
Every gun in circulation also increases the expectation a bad guy has of encountering a good guy with a gun, and taking precautions.
Every gun in circulation increases the probability that a society gets stuck in a defect-defect equilibrium in a 300-million-player prisoners' dilemma. Because you have to take good guys' guns away and convince them that the guys keeping the guns are good guys.
