One thing is becoming very clear in Italy at this stage: We won't have any real clarity about who governs the country for weeks to come.
Meanwhile, the big picture takeaway is depressingly obvious: the populists won BIG tonight.
The obligatory thread about #elezioni2018.
1/
Meanwhile, the big picture takeaway is depressingly obvious: the populists won BIG tonight.
The obligatory thread about #elezioni2018.
1/
There were three main populist groups in this election:
* Berlusconi, the old-style populist.
* Five Stars, an inchaote movement open to Russian influence and anti-immigrant rhetoric,
* And the Northern League, a group of far-right extremists.
Between them, they got ~66%.
2/
* Berlusconi, the old-style populist.
* Five Stars, an inchaote movement open to Russian influence and anti-immigrant rhetoric,
* And the Northern League, a group of far-right extremists.
Between them, they got ~66%.
2/
The nightmare scenario now is a coalition between Five Stars and the Northern League. This would be utterly unpredictable in terms of policy and might well lead to Italy crashing out of the euro.
It's not clear whether the two parties will have a majority though.
3/
It's not clear whether the two parties will have a majority though.
3/
But if Five Stars and Northern League don't form a government, it's unclear who will. Until now, there was a coalition led by the center-left PD with support from the ideologically center-right, though institutionally populist, Forza Italia. They no longer have the votes.
4/
4/
This leaves us with a great variety of equally exotic scenarios.
a) Coalition between Berlusconi, Northern League *and* Five Stars. Especially bizarre since Five Stars rose in opposition to Berlusconi. Hard to imagine they'd go for this.
5/
a) Coalition between Berlusconi, Northern League *and* Five Stars. Especially bizarre since Five Stars rose in opposition to Berlusconi. Hard to imagine they'd go for this.
5/
b) Coalition between Berlusconi, Northern League *and* center-left PD. But this would basically mean that a Social Democratic party enters government with far-right extremists--a first in Europe. It would set a terrible precedent and destroy the party.
6/
6/
c) A minority government by the right-wing bloc of Berlusconi and Northern League, with changing support from either Five Stars or PD. But this would be extremely unstable and couldn't last long.
7/
7/
In short, the most likely outcome is probably new elections relatively soon. But there's no reason to expect that those would produce vastly different results.
8/
8/
This, then, is the kind of politics you get when trust in liberal democracy is at rock bottom, mutually hostile anti-system parties proliferate, and ideologically coherent coalitions are impossible.
Welcome to 21st century Europe.
9/
Welcome to 21st century Europe.
9/
My heart bleeds for Italy, the most beautiful, and perhaps the worst governed, country in Western Europe. It has so much potential, so many amazing youngsters. But its dysfunction robs them of opportunity--which, in turn, makes them vote for parties that worsen the problem!
10/
10/
But I'm also scared of the wider implications:
* This ugly campaign, which rewarded the most hateful voices, showed to what extent xenophobia is still on the rise in Europe. If we don't get this problem under control, it'll eat everything alive.
11/
* This ugly campaign, which rewarded the most hateful voices, showed to what extent xenophobia is still on the rise in Europe. If we don't get this problem under control, it'll eat everything alive.
11/
* In 2011, Italy banished Berlusconi, and seemed to turn away from populism. But in truth, the populist cancer just metastatized. This should drive home the seriousness of the danger now facing America. Things probably won't just go back to normal after 2020.
12/
12/
For more on the populist threat, and how to rise to the immense challenge it represents, please read my new book, The People vs Democracy!
amazon.com/People-vs-Demo…
13/13
amazon.com/People-vs-Demo…
13/13
