THREAD: Key messages from National Grid's Summer Outlook, out today
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7 of 10 lowest demand periods ever recorded on GB grid were in 2017 (the other 3 were in 2016)
nationalgrid.com/sites/default/…
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7 of 10 lowest demand periods ever recorded on GB grid were in 2017 (the other 3 were in 2016)
nationalgrid.com/sites/default/…
2/n
GB grid minimum demand is falling due to the rise of distributed renewables – which are not connected to the main grid – and because overall demand is falling too.
These trends will continue to push down minimum grid demand this year, National Grid says:
GB grid minimum demand is falling due to the rise of distributed renewables – which are not connected to the main grid – and because overall demand is falling too.
These trends will continue to push down minimum grid demand this year, National Grid says:
3/n
One big part of this is solar generation, which means grid minimum demand now sometimes happens during the daytime. It always used to happen at night.
nationalgrid.com/sites/default/…
One big part of this is solar generation, which means grid minimum demand now sometimes happens during the daytime. It always used to happen at night.
nationalgrid.com/sites/default/…
4/n
Distributed GB solar capacity is set to continue growing, acc. National Grid, reaching nearly 15GW by this time next year, up from 13GW today.
[Q: Anyone know how much solar is transmission grid-connected?]
[Q: Seems a rosy outlook for solar, given recent trend, no?]
Distributed GB solar capacity is set to continue growing, acc. National Grid, reaching nearly 15GW by this time next year, up from 13GW today.
[Q: Anyone know how much solar is transmission grid-connected?]
[Q: Seems a rosy outlook for solar, given recent trend, no?]
5/n
Falling minimum grid demand is getting *really* close to the level of inflexible generation on the system – things like nuclear or industrial CHP that are hard to switch off.
So at times, Nat Grid might ask pumped hydro to *raise demand*…or tell windfarms to switch off.
Falling minimum grid demand is getting *really* close to the level of inflexible generation on the system – things like nuclear or industrial CHP that are hard to switch off.
So at times, Nat Grid might ask pumped hydro to *raise demand*…or tell windfarms to switch off.
6/n
It isn't only the GB grid that is changing.
In past year, big increases in renewable capacity across major EU economies, with falls for coal, gas & nuclear.
This will affect continental power prices & interconnector flows.
It isn't only the GB grid that is changing.
In past year, big increases in renewable capacity across major EU economies, with falls for coal, gas & nuclear.
This will affect continental power prices & interconnector flows.
7/n
The rise of renewable electricity is cutting demand for gas-fired power.
It also increases variability: GB gas demand can drop 20%, on windy and sunny summer days – when heating load is already low.
The rise of renewable electricity is cutting demand for gas-fired power.
It also increases variability: GB gas demand can drop 20%, on windy and sunny summer days – when heating load is already low.
8/n
National Grid sees low LNG imports to the UK continuing [the orange big in the chart; despite recent headlines!], as high prices on Asian markets suck in supplies. North Sea continues to supply bulk of demand.
nationalgrid.com/sites/default/…
National Grid sees low LNG imports to the UK continuing [the orange big in the chart; despite recent headlines!], as high prices on Asian markets suck in supplies. North Sea continues to supply bulk of demand.
nationalgrid.com/sites/default/…
10/n
The EU got more electricity from renewables last year than from coal:
carbonbrief.org/eu-got-less-el…
The EU got more electricity from renewables last year than from coal:
carbonbrief.org/eu-got-less-el…
11/n
Despite what you may have read, much less than 1% of UK gas demand through mid-March 2018 was met directly by Russian gas
carbonbrief.org/factcheck-less…
Despite what you may have read, much less than 1% of UK gas demand through mid-March 2018 was met directly by Russian gas
carbonbrief.org/factcheck-less…
12/n
On the rosy Nat Grid outlook for UK solar…even though solar would be cheaper than new gas, finding a route to market for "subsidy-free" renewables is hard
carbonbrief.org/what-does-subs…
On the rosy Nat Grid outlook for UK solar…even though solar would be cheaper than new gas, finding a route to market for "subsidy-free" renewables is hard
carbonbrief.org/what-does-subs…
13/13
One last thing: NGrid says this summer, for 1st time, it'll use a load of batteries to help manage the grid.
The 201MW of batteries contracted in 2016 are now coming online.
"[This] offers a faster service and better value for billpayers"
nationalgridconnecting.com/first-efr-proj…
One last thing: NGrid says this summer, for 1st time, it'll use a load of batteries to help manage the grid.
The 201MW of batteries contracted in 2016 are now coming online.
"[This] offers a faster service and better value for billpayers"
nationalgridconnecting.com/first-efr-proj…
