Thread by @DrSimEvans

1st wk of #COP24 is nearly over & climate talks are grinding slowly forward.

Negotiators have agreed new "iterations" of many parts of the Paris rulebook – even on climate finance. But there are some exceptions.

So where do things stand & what to look out for?

(lengthy) THREAD

Background 1

The aim is to agree the Paris "rulebook": the detailed technical guidance that will allow the Paris Agreement (pictured) to enter force in 2020.

Negotiators are working on a bunch of "agenda items" under the "Paris Agreement Work Programme"…

Background 2

…these bits of text started out as suggestions from countries and negotiating blocs. They are being progressively crafted – via "tools", "reflections notes" etc, see pic – into a series of options in "draft decision text".

carbonbrief.org/bangkok-climat…

So in one sense, there has already been progress at #COP24 – in many, but not all areas, they have agreed "draft decision text".

Here is the mothership landing page where you can find all the latest "texts", "tools" and etc.

Keep hitting refresh!

unfccc.int/node/28798

One example:

There's now draft decision text on what should be in country climate pledges ("NDCs") – aka "APA Agenda Item 3".

It's 9 pages with 188 square brackets indicating areas of disagreement.

I *think* that's down form 21pp & 529 sq brackets*

unfccc.int/sites/default/…

* honestly, it's pretty tough to track the iterations of the text as they are grouped together in different ways.

Either way, the draft decision text on NDC guidance still has *many* square brackets and some areas pictured are entirely bracketed eg "information on adaptation".

Even on NDCs, however, it is not all plan sailing.

So far there's no new text on "common timeframes" for countries' climate pledges.

This is proving controversial, even tho Paris said must submit "every five years" (pic).

(Arg is how long each NDC lasts: 5, 10 or 5+5yrs…)

There also isn't any yet new text on the public registry for recording climate pledges.

You'd think this is simple…and indeed there's already an "interim public registry" online…

www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstagi…

…but among other issues, some don't like that this is searchable (!)

On climate finance reporting under Article 9 of the Paris deal, there has – perhaps surprisingly – been clear progress so far at #COP24

From an October text of 19pp with 408 square brackets, we now have two separate draft decision texts totalling 11pp and 185 brackets.

Most progress was on Article 9.5, on reporting how much climate finance rich countries will give in future.

This was thought to be hard as eg firm commitments couldn't be seen to bind future national budgets…but it's down to 30 brackets & zero "options"

unfccc.int/sites/default/…

Here are a few of the outstanding issues around Article 9.5…

* is the reporting about providing adequate finance or adequate information
* when should rich countries start reporting? (2020/2022/20XX)
* should others be "encouraged" to report too? (eg China)

Article 9.7 – on reporting how much finance has already been given – seems to be even further from an agreed text, with 41 "options" and 185 brackets.

unfccc.int/sites/default/…

For a look at why this is hard, see our new article:

carbonbrief.org/interactive-ho…

Draft text on Article 9.7 – reporting past finance – is a morass of brackets & options, see pics.

* who "shall" or "should" report (must vs can)
* "grant-equivalent" ie the fraction of a loan equiv. to grant money
* "new & additional" ie is it new or just redirected finance

Article 6 on voluntary market mechanisms – effectively carbon trading – is highly complex & has made less progress.

Oct
391 brackets
601 options

5 Dec
386 brackets
435 options

I'm hearing much of the detail will be punted to future meetings, with only bare bones agreed here…

Article 7 on how countries report their adaptation efforts also looks to be going slowly.

As of today, negotiators have only agreed a new text "tool", which implies it is less far advanced than a "draft decision text".

(I haven't looked closely at this)

unfccc.int/sites/default/…

Article 13 on "transparency" – eg reporting of greenhouse gas emissions – has progressed but remains fraught.

Oct
46pp, 759 brackets, 179 "options"

6 Dec
44pp, 380 brackets, 137 "options"

Key issues inc whether all have to report emissions every year…

unfccc.int/sites/default/…

<pauses for breath>

I'll be back for more #COP24 text analysis fun after lunch…

OK, I'm back for more #COP24 text updates.

I've already covered NDC guidance, climate finance & market mechanisms (see tweets in this thread, above).

I've yet to cover the global stocktake and a few intriguing emerging new ideas… stick with me for more.

Article 14 is important – it's about how the "global stocktake" will work every 5yrs to measure progress towards climate goals.

Text here has progressed well:
Oct
11pp
22 "options"
181 brackets

Dec
9pp
12 "options"
48 brackets

unfccc.int/sites/default/…

Much of the text on the global stocktake looks to be locked down and agreed. Some key disagreements include:

*whether to model the process on this year's "Talanoa Dialogue"
*where new climate pledges shd be made

NB also that "loss & damage" is def part of the stocktake.

Finally, "APA agenda item 8", the catch-all for other ideas & proposals.

As far as I understand, these are all TBD – they're described as "possible additional matters".

unfccc.int/sites/default/…

I can see a couple of interest (neither are new as both were in Oct text):

1) Proposal to fix a new, higher climate finance target in 2023 (now $100bn/yr by 2020). This is 2yrs earlier than required by Paris.

2) Proposal to write guidance on how to update existing climate pledges. This is highly relevant in context of raising ambition before 2020 in response to the IPCC SR15 and the "Talanoa Dialogue"…

…and Paris Agreement text suggests there should be guidance on how updates work.

A few thoughts just to finish off:

*much of this progress is technical – getting closer to the clear set of options ministers will need when they hammer out political differences, bargains and trade-offs
*many disagreements are linked eg "differentiation" of rules for rich/poor

This means progress can cascade through texts, once high-level disputes are unlocked or traded away in return for quid-pro-quo priorities elsewhere in the #COP24 outcome.

"Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed"

New texts are due in a few days so look out for more then…

*** late addition ***

Text has just gone online on the public registry. It has 3 options:

1) interim registry to be permanent

2) as above but remove search bar

3) interim reg remains interim until a decision at COP25 next year

Such a weird battle!

unfccc.int/sites/default/…