Thread by @DrSimEvans

Draft new EU 2050 climate strategy is built on a backbone of massive increases in renewables to meet 50-60% of energy supply – up from just over 10% today

(I'm back! Digging through more details from the 393pp #ClimateNeutralEU working doc…)

ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/cl…

Just as striking as the rise of renewables is the fall of fossil fuels. #ClimateNeutralEU pathways for 2050 don't include coal ("solids") and the 1.5C scenarios have hardly any oil ("fossil liquids") or gas.

NB also how coal's contribution already falls in half by 2030…

(Worth adding that the #ClimateNeutralEU pathways do still include a continuing role for oil in non-energy uses eg plastics, chemicals. This is a drum @IEA has been banging for a while now… world uses oil for lots of things, not just transport)

On top of ramping up renewables and cutting fossil fuel use, most #ClimateNeutralEU pathways also involve significant cuts to final energy consumption (combination of more efficiency & changing behaviour).

There's a large continuing role for nuclear in the #ClimateNeutralEU pathways.

Fag-pack numbers suggest the rising nuclear share in 1.5C scenarios mainly reflects falling total demand, but even so this wld entail significant nuclear newbuild, given the ageing EU reactor fleet…

For ref here's my earlier thread…

https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1067758515278749696

This chart shows the large reductions in final energy consumption more clearly…

Cuts of up to 50% vs 2005! (though NB we're already quite far below 2005 levels as of today)

The #ClimateNeutralEU pathways see a big role for hydrogen as an energy carrier (still need to get that energy from somewhere… either fossil gas with CCS or clean electricity)

As you would expect, the power sector is almost entirely decarbonised in #ClimateNeutralEU pathways, with 2-6% of electricity coming from fossil fuels and 81-85% from renewables…

(NB range covers 2C / 1.5C pathways, but those are likely similar as power is an "easy" sector)

Getting to such high renewable shares in the power mix, while meeting rising demand from electrified heat/transport, means huge increases in capacity

in 2015 -> 2050

wind:
140GW -> up to 1,200GW

solar:
95GW -> up to 1,000GW

#ClimateNeutralEU

V striking line on CCS:

"In 2050, the role of CCS for power generation is very limited in all scenarios as competitive wind and solar, as well as biogas, hydrogen, batteries and biomass are available in sufficient quantities to balance electricity system."

#ClimateNeutralEU

This is a v impt point from @e3g and @jonathangaventa on #ClimateNeutralEU scenarios in particular (and indeed any modelling effort in general):

* the numbers will be wrong
* they'll look dumb in a few yrs
* but they're still useful

e3g.org/library/media-…