This is the right take (if I’m reading it correctly), but let’s talk about that article claiming the Democratic wave is receding (nymag.com/daily/intellig…). Oh boy...
Best evidence of REAL change in the wave is in actual voter behavior. If Democrats stop posting gains in special elections over time, they should worry more. Of course, they haven’t (yet?). These claims are almost all based on declining D margin in the generic ballot, which...
... is mostly an artifact of how wide you take your averages. Monthly Democratic margin in generic ballot polling has been between 7 and 9 percentage points since October of 2017. Combine with special elections, the wave looks nearly as tall as it did in March.
I think this has less to do with the actual data and more with media conventional wisdom — which (as time has told) settles on outcomes with more blind certainty and spins the wheel 180° when they perceive the winds as shifting.
Nevertheless, Dems have been between 52 and 65% to take the House majority since January. A lot of this has to do with predicting what the national environment will be in Nov, not where it is today. Too many ppl overlooking very important transformation.
2018.thecrosstab.com
2018.thecrosstab.com
Kilgore’s subtitle acknowledges that there’s wide uncertainty in the House forecasts. Heck yeah there is! If only he realized that that very uncertainty prevents him from making claims about the wave oscillating wildly. The range of outcomes has barely changed since last year.
Read more about combining special elections and the generic ballot here: thecrosstab.com/2018/05/01/gen…
