This is the right take (if I’m reading it correctly), but let’s talk about that article claiming the Democratic wave is receding (…). Oh boy...
Best evidence of REAL change in the wave is in actual voter behavior. If Democrats stop posting gains in special elections over time, they should worry more. Of course, they haven’t (yet?). These claims are almost all based on declining D margin in the generic ballot, which...
... is mostly an artifact of how wide you take your averages. Monthly Democratic margin in generic ballot polling has been between 7 and 9 percentage points since October of 2017. Combine with special elections, the wave looks nearly as tall as it did in March.
I think this has less to do with the actual data and more with media conventional wisdom — which (as time has told) settles on outcomes with more blind certainty and spins the wheel 180° when they perceive the winds as shifting.
Nevertheless, Dems have been between 52 and 65% to take the House majority since January. A lot of this has to do with predicting what the national environment will be in Nov, not where it is today. Too many ppl overlooking very important transformation.
Kilgore’s subtitle acknowledges that there’s wide uncertainty in the House forecasts. Heck yeah there is! If only he realized that that very uncertainty prevents him from making claims about the wave oscillating wildly. The range of outcomes has barely changed since last year.
Read more about combining special elections and the generic ballot here:…
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to G. Elliott Morris📈🤷‍♂️
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!