Thread by @gelliottmorris

There are TWELVE special elections tonight! One high profile election in #AZ08, a Trump +21 congressional district, and eleven (11!) in New York, where two R seats are competitive possible flips.

Coverage to follow here. <THREAD>

With results being dumped in for #NYSpecialElections, we have our first calls of the night… 3 holds for the Democrats.

NY #SD32: D hold (Clinton +88)
NY #HD74: D hold (Clinton +74)
NY #HD80: D hold (Clinton +66)

Democrats also hold NY #HD39 (uncontested) which Clinton won by 66 points in 2015. They are batting 4/11 tonight.

Looks like the shift in NY special elections so far this evening is about 6%. Since they are very blue seats, this is consistent with the idea that the swing in 2018 will come more from R-leaning seats than D-leaning ones.

thecrosstab.com/2018/04/24/az-…

Democratic candidate looking strong in #SD37, which Clinton won by 21 points in 2016 and Obama won by 9

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A reminder than tonight’s results wont’t change expectations for a November Dem Wave (margins of error, probably, just 58% odds, etc) unless the Democrats swing by an average of 25 or 2 points (neither of which look likely). Play the long game, folks. #AZ08 #NYSpecialElections

Turnout looking moderate to high, for a special election, in #NYSpecialElections tonight. (Note for future democracies: it’s sad that we consider 20% turnout good.)

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#Projection: Unless there is a warehouse of uncounted votes, Democrats will hold on to NY #SD37 seat, likely by double digits. Clinton won here by 21 points in 2016, Obama by 9. This is their 5th hold of the night. 6 more elections in NY remaining

Just in: the first votes in NY #HD142. This seat is D-held, but Trump won it by 7 in 2016 (Obama by 10). With 20% reporting the Democratic candidate is up by 15 (a 22-point swing on the margin, if it holds. nyenr.elections.ny.gov

In the one R-held seat currently reporting, Democrats are on pace for a 13-point win and a #FLIP. Clinton won by 7 here in 2018. Keep your eye on #HD10

#BREAKING with 100% of the vote reporting in the special election to NY’s 10th Assembly District, Democrat Steve Stern has #FLIPPED control of the seat from R to D. #HD10

The seat swung toward Democrats by 13%, which is the average swing in special elections since 2016.

The swing toward Democrats in NY #HD10 #AD10 is slightly exceeding expectations according to previous special election results. The first of the night. Are there more to come?

15% reporting now in NY #HD107 and Democrats are looking good for a possible second #FLIP of the night. Dem. Candidate up 13 points (Trump won by 4 here).

Wow, this is unexpected. In NY #AD102 HD102, the Democratic candidate is up 3 points with 63% of votes reporting. This is an R-held seat that Trump won by 23 points.

other state lege swings tonight are kinda all over the place

In the 97 post-2016 special elections in my data, Obama's margin in the district in 2012 is almost twice as important to predictions of 2018 as Clinton's 2016 margin. Fit is surprisingly high

In the two competitive Republican-held districts left in #NYSpecialElections, here's the breakdown:

#HD102: D -2 (Trump +23, 21% swing)

#HD107: D -4 (Trump +4, 0% swing)

Still waiting on a few precincts in each.

#BREAKING in surprisingly competitive NY Assembly District 102, the Democrat has come within 1% of flipping the seat. Trump won by 23% here in 2016, making this a large 🚨23-24 point swing.🚨

#AD10 #HD10 is in the heart of Rep. John Faso's NY-19 (R+6). Bad sign for him in 2018.

RESULTS ARE NOW COMING IN for the #AZ08 special election nail-biter. State releases all the results results instantly, and based on the early ballot data, I have a 101% confident prediction:

Tipirneni (D): 0%
Lesko (R): 0%
JEB!: 100%

Want to know what to expect in the incoming #AZ08 special election? I give you a primer here: thecrosstab.com/2018/04/24/az-…

Just in: in #AZ08,

Lesko (R): 53%
Tipirneni (D): 47%

This is with roughly 3/4ths of projected votes counted.

The 21 point lead that people inferred Lesko would have based off party registration of early ballots is (surprise!) not there.

According to the currently-reported vote tally, Tipirneni needs somewhere between 55 and 60% of election day votes to win in #AZ08. thecrosstab.com/2018/04/24/az-…

Read what I wrote thecrosstab.com/2018/04/24/az-…

#BREAKING Republican Debbie Lesko wins #AZ08 special election. Donald Trump won by 21 points in here in 2016, and as of now (will likely get better for Dems), Democrats are running a 19-point swing from the seat's partisan lean. Very bad sign for GOP.

thecrosstab.com/2018/04/24/az-…

Among the 90k Republican early ballots cast in #AZ08, only (!) 53# (!) went for Debbie Lesko. That's huge persuasion, given that partisan voting is >85% at the presidential level. If the GOP can't hold on here...

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Just in: Democratic candidate in #AZ08 special election swings seat by ~15 points. Could very well be higher

The average swing in the 9 Federal special elections since 2016 is 17 points for the Democrats.

thecrosstab.com/2018/04/24/az-…

If the swing to Democrats in November is anything CLOSE to the swing we're seeing in special elections so far (17% for Congressional, 14% for state lege races), Dems will be favorites in the House (40+ seats) and maybe (just maybe) the Senate.

thecrosstab.com/2018-midterms-…

In other words, what we've seen in tonight's special elections is 99.9% consistent with what we've seen in special elections so far. The evidence is also consistent with a Democratic House come 2019 and possibly a Democratic Senate.

(This is especially true in an environment where Arizona has at least one Senate seat at play --- as morbid as this is to say)

Brief call to action:

If you like what I do with these special elections, consider signing up for my newsletter. I’ll soon be transitioning roles (to a real outlet!) and this will be the best way for me to share all my work.

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Ok, back to #AZ08…

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patreon.com/gelliottmorris

Thus ends my thread on the results for tonight's special elections in #AZ08 and #NYSpecialElections:

▪️1 flip
▪️19-point swing in red AZ
▪️17-point swing average Federal special
▪️All consistent with Dems *likely* taking back the House

thecrosstab.com/2018-midterms-…