Clinton got a hypothetical win here by 3 points in 2016. It’ll go to Lamb by 20.
Democrat Colin Allred defeats 11-term incumbent Pete Sessions (R). The FOURTEENTH Democratic pickup of the night.
(B) Share of population that is white
As @Redistrict said early in this cycle, one catchy way to describe this election is The Year of the Angry White College Graduate™️
- Walker (R) loses reelection in Wisconsin.
- Rosen (D) defeats Heller (R) in Nevada's Senate race, the first Dem pickup of the night in the upper chamber.
- Gina Ortiz Jones (D) takes the lead vs Hurd (R) in #TX23 w/ 100% reporting
We have a table that easily lets you see which seats have flipped, by how much, and which wins have been called
At just the House level, you can make a case to me that demographics played an independently polarizing role, too.
Looks like the Senate will end up 55 - 45 R, a 4 seat net gain for Republicans
(A) Districts that swung from Obama to Trump swung harder to Dems
(B) Having more college educated voters meant little
(C) Dems made gains in districts where fewer voters acknowledge racism, more want immigrants deported
Lots to disentangle here, but I’m now leaning toward a narrative emphasizing both mean reversion and Dem appeal to WWCs (obv correlated).
Currently, projected Dem House seats: 230
Look how different the elections looked in the Midwest vs everywhere else, though.