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G. Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris
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🚨MY MASTER THREAD of #Midterm2018 results analysis, including an array of data dives. Will the country chose to repudiate president Trump? Health care instead of the wall? RT & strap in, folks, tonight could be a wild ride. We get the first batch of results at around 6 PM ET.
Turnout has looked unprecedented for weeks now. Indications today that it could even beat these lofty expectations. At this point I think I’d buy for pickups in Tossup sub/urban seats like #TX07 #TX32 and #TX26, but sell in more rural districts that have looked like reaches.
But what’s the point of making that bet? We’ll find out shortly!
Oh... that’s silly, it looks like my brain couldn’t decide between FL26 and TX21 so it just picked both! Oh well, better to get the typos out of the way early in the night.
Your friendly reminder that there are just two congressional districts with more than 2% of precincts reporting. We have a *long* way to go. That being said, early signs look ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ for Democrats. They also look ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ for Republicans. (Get it?)
Polls are closed/closing this hour in these competitive districts that I recommended using as bellwethers:

We should expect many more votes from Florida’s panhandle than those that are currently reporting (at present — basically none). But there are also millions of votes left in southern Palm Beach, Miaimi, and Broward counties. Gillum looks about as good as polls + EV said.
We don’t have many districts with which to forecast what current margins mean for predicted success, but if you forced me to run the model I have ready, it’d say that Dems are on track to win 220-30 seats — but with massive uncertainty still.
#BREAKING local man tries to project US election with only 1% reporting
It’s done. Jennifer Wexton (D) flips #VA10 from Republican to Democratic control, unseating Republican incumbent Barbara Comstock. This was rated as a safe Dem pickup, and has about a dozen Whole Foods.
With 48% reporting in #VA07, Abigail Spanberger leads Dave Brat by nearly two points. Like Wexton, she too is beating benchmarks, but unlike Wexton is not assured a victory.
Just in: Democrats get their second flip of the night in #FL27, as Donna Shalala (D) will defeat Republican challenger Elvira Salazar. Currently, the seat is swinging 25 points from the margin it gave Clinton in 2016.
Democrats are doing 11 points better on average than they did in the 2016 House elections
In the counties that are actually reporting votes, Beto does not look like he’s hitting his benchmarks. But (and this is a HUGE but), there are no election day votes yet coming out of Dem strongholds in Houston and Austin.
In the 202 House seats where more than 20% of votes are in:

Safe D: Dems ahead in 98% of races
Likely D: 100
Lean D: 100
Tossup: 30
Lean R: 40
Likely R: 22
Safe R: 10

Sample size issue with some of this, but I think the House is bluer than some of y’all think. At least for now.
Andy Barr (R) defeats Amy McGrath (D) in Tossup #KY06. Not one of those races that Democrats *needed* to win, but it could have helped them offset a surprise loss elsewhere in the country.
In races with more than 30% of the vote reporting, our forecast at… is overshooting Democrats’ vote margin by 1 point. Pretty “bang on,” my colleague @ikahloon says
Another Democratic pickup in #PA05 as Mary Gay Scanlon (D) defeats Pearl Kim (R) by double digits. Huge Clinton lead in 2016, was an expected outcome of PA redistricting.
FOURTH Democratic pickup of the night comes in #CO06, where Crow (D) defeats Incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman (R). Crow looks headed for an 11 point victory. Clinton won by 7.
Spanberger (D) is ahead of Brat (R) by 0.2 points in Tossup #VA07 with 94% reporting. If she pulls it off, would be a key suburban win for Dems
“Jesus take the needle” — my SO, who is across the room staring at TX results yelling at her laptop
I’m not one who likes to get egg on my face, but it sure looks like Democrats are going to win the House.
In #PA17 Dems are going to get their fifth flip of the night (again, they need 23). Conor Lamb (D) defeats Keith Rothfus (R), as expected.

Clinton got a hypothetical win here by 3 points in 2016. It’ll go to Lamb by 20.
SIXTH Democratic pickup of the night: Phillips (D) defeats Paulsen (R) in #MN03. Heading for a 13 point margin in a D+5 seat
The SEVENTH Democratic pickup of the night will come in #FL26, where vulnerable Rep Carlos Curbelo (R) has been defeated by Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 2 points. Clinton won by 16 points here in 2016, so not a huge surprise, but a much-needed Dem victory.
EIGHTH Democratic Pickup as Mickie Sherrill wins by double digits in #NJ11. A Trump +1 district.
BIG FLIP: Democrats will win in #KS03 where Sharice Davids (D) will win a slim victory over Kevin Yoder (R). This is the Democrats’ 9th flip of the night.
Our House model continues to do very well this evening
Another big flip just in: Elaine Luria (D) defeats incumbent Scott Taylor (R) in #VA02 for Democrats’ TENTH flip of the evening.
ELEVENTH flip for Democrats comes in #NY11 as Democrat Max Rose defeats incumbent Republican Dan Donovan. This is an R+10 seat and one of the more surprising Democratic wins of the night. On the way to a victory.
I’m seeing about 230 seats for Democrats now
Democrats FLIP #PA06 as Chrissy Houlahan (D) defeats Greg McCauley (R). The twelfth projected Democratic pickup of the night.
PROJECTION: Democrat Susan Wild defeats Marty Nothstein (R) in #PA07, their THIRTEENTH pickup of the night. We’re into the teens now and getting flips all over the place.
Another big one:

Democrat Colin Allred defeats 11-term incumbent Pete Sessions (R). The FOURTEENTH Democratic pickup of the night.
I predict Democrats will win these seats AND the House majority (about 90% sure):

It also looks like John Faso is in trouble in #NY19
Another flip: Haley Stevens (D) defeats Lena Epstein (R) in #MI11. This is the FIFTEENTH Democratic pickup tonight.
Projecting that Dave Brat (R) will LOSE to Abigail Spanberger in #VA07. The SIXTEENTH Democratic pickup this evening.
Democrats currently ahead in 11 of the 17 Obama-Trump districts that are reporting election results. They are also ahead in 7 of 8 Romney-Clinton districts.
This election could be less of mean reversion and more of Democrats-turned-Trump voters “coming home” while the suburban women who shored up Clinton in close districts have become even more Democratic.
Tonight is a victory for Democrats, sure but also for journalists who pre-wrote all their takes. As someone who contributed to forecasts that seem to be fairly accurate this year, you are welcome.
D FLIP Sean Casten beats incumbent Peter Roskam in #IL06, a Clinton +6 district.
Democrats are winning 20% of seats we rated likely REPUBLICAN, more than the 7% of Lean R seats they’re currently winning. Wow
EIGHTEENTH flip as #NY22 votes for Brindisi (D) over Tenney (R)
NINETEENTH DEMOCRATIC FLIP as Rodney Davis (R, #IL13) succumbs to a 5-point wound inflicted by Betsy Dirksen Londrigan
TWENTIETH flip to the Democrats as John Faso (R) loses to Antonio Delgado (D) in #NY19
TWENTY FIRST flip for Dems comes in #IA03 as Cindy Axne (D) topples David Young (R).
Democrats get their TWENTY SECOND flip from #IA01 where Abby Finkenauer has defeated incumbent Rod Blum (R).
Looks like a little more than half of voters’ ballots in the country have been counted now. We’re at 138 D House seats to 149 R, but a forecast of 231 seats for Democrats after all is said and done.
I have stopped tweeting flips, because, eh, we know already
The two biggest correlated with changes in raw votes cast from 2016 to 2018:

(A) Education
(B) Share of population that is white

As @Redistrict said early in this cycle, one catchy way to describe this election is The Year of the Angry White College Graduate™️
@Redistrict A big pickup for Dems in #NJ07, where Tom Malinowski (D) has defeated incumbent Rep. Leonard Lance (R)
Rick Scott currently crying on stage talking about his mother, which I feel for, because I love my mom and would be beside myself if I ever accomplished something like that
Democrats grab an upset victory in #GA07. They could still win in the sixth, but aren’t favored there. Theme of the night is Dems winning surprise upsets in Lean/Likely R seats, as we have been saying was likely to happen since, oh, I don’t know, March?
Okay! That’s it for calls/results/picks from me! I’m moving into psephology mode.

Here’s my leader: not a lot of mean reversion in the House today. Sure, the relationships are significant, but not powerful enough to drive the narrative.
Democratic House margin in 2016 is about 2x as predictive of 2018 results than 2012 Dem house margin
Democrats did well in the House. Republicans did well in the Senate. Pollsters and forecasters, though -- they did well everywhere. Cheers!
Big midterms news just in:

- Walker (R) loses reelection in Wisconsin.
- Rosen (D) defeats Heller (R) in Nevada's Senate race, the first Dem pickup of the night in the upper chamber.
- Gina Ortiz Jones (D) takes the lead vs Hurd (R) in #TX23 w/ 100% reporting
What the Democratic House takeover means -->…
The 2018 mid-term elections results: The Democrats win back the House of Representatives but the Republicans expand their Senate majority.

We have a table that easily lets you see which seats have flipped, by how much, and which wins have been called…
I really do think that the big takeaway last night is geographic polarization, FWIW

At just the House level, you can make a case to me that demographics played an independently polarizing role, too.
MT has been called for Jon Tester (D)…

Looks like the Senate will end up 55 - 45 R, a 4 seat net gain for Republicans
At the current tally, Democrats are 10-for-13 in Romney➡️Clinton districts and 17-for-24 in Obama➡️Trump districts. They won everywhere last night
Polls were pretty darn good last night
Last night…

(A) Districts that swung from Obama to Trump swung harder to Dems
(B) Having more college educated voters meant little
(C) Dems made gains in districts where fewer voters acknowledge racism, more want immigrants deported
… (D) Raw votes increased most for Democrats in places I’ve just described, but so did raw Rep votes.

Lots to disentangle here, but I’m now leaning toward a narrative emphasizing both mean reversion and Dem appeal to WWCs (obv correlated).
It looks like Democrats could very well approach the 53% of the vote that House Democrats won in 2008 on Obama’s coattails. All depends on how much is left in CA and WA.
That being said... you kind of have to squint to get there. It sure looks like more of a 52, 52.5% race.
We have #Midterm2018 results from 98% of precincts! As for the 2%… Thanks, California…
Results in the 2018 House midterms were better predicted by 2016 House and presidential results than 2012 House and pres results.
As for whether or not districts that swung from Obama to Trump were more likely to swing harder toward Ds on Tuesday… well, I’m not seeing any evidence of that
In midwestern districts, there *is* evidence that Dems are gaining back ground that swung hard from Obama to Trump. In this plot, strong evidence for a mean reversion hypothesis. cc: @MattGrossmann (& see prior tweet)
Median Dem House seats in my final 2018 forecast: 230

Currently, projected Dem House seats: 230
There's one large state where Dems gained voters vs 2012.

It's Texas.

In races that were uncontested in both years, Democrats gained ~550,000 voters — The biggest increase nationwide. Versus 2016, 200k more voters.

Rep turnout in twice-contested House races down 430k vs 2016.
cc @MattGrossmann it's possible I was reading that plot I sent you earlier backwards. Midwestern seats that swung hard to Trump... kept swinging (relative to a 7-pt intercept).

Look how different the elections looked in the Midwest vs everywhere else, though.
@MattGrossmann Democrat Kyrsten Sinema (D) now leading Martha McSally (R) by 10,000 votes in the Arizona Senate race. 100% of precincts reporting.
Plenty of votes to go, though, that don't come from the precinct total. We're not finished in AZ
Gov Scott here lamenting about counties casting votes, alleging bias because they keep counting them. Nice. Fair.…
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