WWR Thread: A different way of looking at guns than the usual stuff you hear on TV after a shooting like today's TX school massacre. It concerns shifting demographics and consumer habits /1
WWR has mentioned before—as someone who supports the Second Amendment—that demographics and shifting consumer habits are slowly nibbling away at America’s rich gun culture. We have probably seen the high-water mark for that culture and it is slowly receding. Emphasis on slowly /2
This has less to do with who’s in Congress and how much cash the National Rifle Association donates to lawmakers—and more to do with something that is harder to see and for anyone to influence /3
The fact is that the U.S. gun base skews 1) male, 2) white, 3) rural 4) somewhat lesser educated—all trends that run counter to an America that is 1) majority female, 2) rapidly urbanizing, 3) more educated and 4) less white (white births are now a minority) than ever before /4
As shifting demographics and consumer habits gradually erode the still-powerful gun culture, its political base is likely to erode as well. Like water running downhill, this is the natural order of things /5
If one takes the shifting demographics & consumer habits and layers it on top of another issue—the ongoing fiscal pressure that states and cities across the country constantly face—it suggests that guns and ammo could be increasingly seen as an undertapped source of revenue /6
There are precedents for this. Tobacco, a ubiquitous product half-a-century ago, gradually became politically easier to target and tax as demographics and changing consumption patterns gradually weakened a once all--powerful and unassailable industry. /7
This culminated in a massive 1998 agreement between tobacco firms and 46 states, five U.S. territories and DC, in which the industry agreed to pay billions of dollars a year to those jurisdictions. Those costs were generally just passed on to the declining number of smokers /8
Tobacco revenue is addictive as nicotine to states, which need every penny they can get; Of course, all this is on top of the current federal tax of $1.00 per 20-pack of cigarettes. This isn’t to say that the firearms industry isn’t taxed already. Of course it is. /9
Taxes on guns generally haven’t budged in a long time and are narrowly applied. There’s a federal excise tax of 10% on handguns and 11% on long guns for the import and production of firearms and ammo—but hasn’t changed since it was implemented literally a century ago (1919) /10
You may be surprised to know that only two states, per a RAND Corp. analysis, impose special taxes on guns and ammo above and beyond standard sales taxes: PA and TN. PA tacks on a $3 surcharge on firearms; TN a $0.10 tax for use, possession, and sales of shotgun shells /11
That consumption taxes for guns/ammo (beyond normal sales taxes) are rare reflects two forces: the industry's political base is solid, and basic economics. If taxes were raised, an individual could theoretically just drive to a cheaper state or jurisdiction to make a purchase /12
But the logic in prior tweet has its limits: How far would a gun/ammo buyer be willing to drive to a neighboring jurisdiction, how much time and gas would they be willing to spend just to save a few bucks? /13
But most states DO tax gun owners in other ways that can’t be avoided as easily: through licensing and permit fees. Everything from safety classes to concealed carry permits is taxed at varying rates and permit lengths—a steady source of revenue. /14
It’s politically easier to raise revenue by licensing and permit/usage fees for guns/ammo - which is why most states do; these fees are likely to keep inching up in the years ahead. Certainly likelier in cash-strapped blue states. /15
Some gun owners say such taxes are an infringement upon their Second Amendment rights. Defenders claim that like tobacco and alcohol, guns can sometimes incur broader costs upon society and therefore must be paid for through usage and consumption fees. Both views have merit /16
The changing demographics—and evolving consumer attitudes that WWR mentioned are already hurting the gun industry. In March, Remington - the legendary manufacturer founded in 1816 - filed for bankruptcy, citing falling sales, heavy debt and lawsuits tied to Sandy Hook /17
Changing demographics and consumer habits are also driving change across the corporate landscape. Retailers are reducing sales channels for guns—just one major retailer now sells the kind of semi-automatic assault-style rifles that have been used in so many mass shootings /18
Walmart - the nation’s biggest retailer - stopped selling semi-automatic weapons in 2015. Retailers make data-driven decisions each day on what to sell and are always adjusting inventory. There’s nothing in the Constitution that says businesses have to sell anything to anyone ##
