Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Eurozone

Most recents (24)

A few months ago, #markets expected U.S. #inflation to peak by mid-2022 at around 7% to 8% at the headline level and then anticipated that generalized #price gains would decline into year end, closing the year around 4%.
However, the tragic war now unfolding with Russia’s attack upon Ukraine has not only sent #energy prices skyrocketing but it has led to much greater uncertainty over #economic growth and #MonetaryPolicy reaction functions, in Europe and indeed around the world.
Core #CPI (excluding volatile #food and #energy components) came in at 0.5% month-over-month and 6.4% year-over-year. Meanwhile, headline CPI data printed at 0.8% month-over-month and came in at 7.9% year-over-year, the greatest increase over a 12-month period since January 1982.
Read 17 tweets
Understanding the #Russia #sanctions debate in brief!

Financial and Economic Sanctions against #Iran cutting it off from global finance and trade rank 9/10

#Russian sanctions only 5/10 for now.

A lot of room to tighten the noose, of which cutting off #SWIFT is only one part
ALL #Russian banks, big and small, need blocking sanctions. This needs to include the Central Bank of Russia, mirroring the case with current sanctions that operate against #Iran, which has also been kicked off #SWIFT. Only humanitarian, medical & food import funds to be allowed!
The ONLY remaining reason the #EU countries are resisting cutting off #SWIFT and going as far as in the case of #Iran, which is what we need to do, is because we fear (know) #Putin will immediately cut off gas supplies.

Our need for #Russian gas and the #SWIFT issue inseperable
Read 14 tweets
Was bedeutet der #UkraineKonflikt für die #Weltwirtschaft ? Thesen in einem Thread:
1. Der Konflikt trifft auf eine fragile Weltwirtschaft.
2. Diese hat sich von #Corona dank massiver staatlicher Hilfen und #Liquiditätsflutung durch die maßgeblichen Notenbanken deutlich erholt.
3. Was aber angesichts der weiter vorhandenen Angebotsstörungen und der schon seit Jahren zu geringen Investitionen in die Erschließung neuer fossiler Energiequellen (auch aufgrund des Drucks in der Klimapolitik) zu Inflationsdruck geführt hat. 2/3
4. Dies hat in den #USA und #UK aber auch in der #Eurozone den Druck auf die #Notenbanken #EZB #FED erhöht, die geldpolitischen Zügel anzuziehen. 3/4
Read 10 tweets
The first day of the #InDivEU Final Conference 'A differentiated future for the European Union?' has just begun🙌
Join Lucia Mokrá (@tepsaeu) and Frank Schimmelfennig (@ETH_en) now for some welcome words!

LIVESTREAMING📹
/🧵

#DifferentiatedIntegration
.@EnricoLetta, President of the Jacques Delors Institute and former Prime Minister of Italy, will now give the keynote speech covering 3 main topics
✅Timeliness of the discussion
✅The contribution of #Brexit
✅Two examples of successful #DifferentiatedIntegration
/2
#Brexit and the results from the negotiations completely changed the discussion on #DifferentiatedIntegration. Now, there is no more a multi-destination Europe, only a multi-speed Europe.
- @EnricoLetta at #InDivEU Final Conference
Watch live ➡️
/3
Read 22 tweets
#Italy's Draghi cannot pass promised reforms, says League's Salvini
- Draghi will not be able to enact key reforms demanded by the European Union because his unity government is too divided over the issues, rightist leader Matteo Salvini said on Saturday
in.news.yahoo.com/italys-draghi-…
#Italy’s premier cannot pass promised reforms – rightist leader | May 15, 2021
- “In any case, it won’t be this government that reforms the justice and tax system,” #Salvini told La Repubblica daily,
today.ng/news/world/ita…
Italy's #Draghi cannot pass promised reforms, says Salvini | May 15
- Draghi has promised Brussels that he will push through an ambitious reform drive to secure more than €200B from the EU recovery fund, aimed at helping countries overcome the coronavirus
reuters.com/world/europe/i…
Read 9 tweets
ING Bank 1/5: Latest #eurozone production figures are weak, but the future looks bright
Industrial production in the eurozone is being held up by input shortages at the moment. This will lead to weaker growth in the first quarter, but underlying demand is strong and that makes us
ING Bank 2/5: upbeat about prospects for the bloc as it reopens later in the year.
February industrial production showed a decline of 1% compared to January. Production had fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels at the start of the year but dipped back later.
ING Bank 3/5: The decline will mean that the manufacturing contribution to GDP may disappoint a bit given the strong performance seen in the fourth quarter, adding to our view of another GDP contraction in 1Q before the economic rebound starts.
Read 5 tweets
ING Bank 1/4: #Eurozone: Waiting for the European phoenix
1Q21 will not be remembered as the finest hours of European politics. The glacial roll-out of vaccination programmes and the ‘crown jewel’ of the EU’s fiscal stimulus – the EU’s €750bn Recovery Fund –
ING Bank 2/4: is gathering dust in a Karlsruhe courtroom stand in stark contrast to the achievements in the US. Yet all is not lost. European manufacturing is holding up well and there are signs of life in the EU vaccine roll-out.
ING Bank 3/4: Our #EURUSD profile is slightly dimmed, but we still expect the #EUR to arise from the ashes of European policy. It should be in a position to challenge 1.25 – though probably not now until the third quarter.
Read 4 tweets
Rabobank 1/9: #CFTC Commitment of Traders Report
Speculators’ net #USD positions held in positive territory for the 4th consecutive week, though overall size dropped moderately along with the softer tone of the greenback in the spot market. Previous to this the market had not had
Rabobank 2/9: a run of net long positions since June 2020. The USD has been one of the best performing G10 currencies this year reflecting reflation optimism and a shift in expectations regarding Fed rates policy.

#EUR net longs dropped to their lowest level since March 2020.
Rabobank 3/9: Concerns about the speed of the vaccine roll-out programme in #Eurozone have been constraining expectations regarding the economic recovery in the region as fears about a third wave spread. ECB has brought forward bond purchases to push down the level of bond yields
Read 9 tweets
Please tell me if I get the big picture on #Eurozone #QuantitativeEasing right.

1. The EU is a historical political project
2. The #ECB is a child of that project and understandably protects it until its last breath
3. Protecting it means
a) ensuring no member to go bust
b) sovereign spreads to remain at a managable levels

4. These in turn requires heavy purchases of sovereign bonds, on a scale that can only be done with newly created money #M0 i.e. #QE.
5. That money inevitably blows a bubble on nearly all markets of investable assets
6. ...which side effect the ECB does not like but sees no alternative to keep the Eurozone together
7. ECB also needs to keep printing money as #FED is printing money too, and the #EUR would otherwise appreciate, creating huge competitiveness problems for the entire Eurozone.
Read 4 tweets
A lot of excitement about the #recovery of manufacturing especially in the Eurozone and in #China , but is it real?

For three years, we have been trying to get the message of this figure through in the financial media with limited success.

Now, one more try (thread). 1/10
In 2017, while mulling through the global economic data, we had an epiphany.

Not only had #China led the global economic expansion that started in -09, but it had accomplished this with unsustainable debt stimulus. 2/
@GnSEconomics
gnseconomics.com/2017/10/16/wha…
The speedy recovery of the global #economy after the mini-recession in 2015 had baffled us. Why did the world economy suddenly jump off the brink of a #recession ?

We found the answer from the 'shadow banking sector' of #China .

In 2016, in just one year, its size tripled. 3/
Read 10 tweets
On today's Money Talk; President Xi has praised #Shenzhen as an economic miracle & given it the task of leading growth & innovation across the GBA. He called upon young Hong Kongers to work, study & live in mainland #China to “revitalise” ‘one country, two systems.’
1/14
The #US State Department yesterday formally warned international financial institutions doing business with individuals deemed responsible for undermining #HongKong's autonomy that they could soon face sanctions.
2/14
#US officials are calling for Ant Group to be blacklisted ahead of its $35bn IPO in Hong Kong & Shanghai. China hardliners in the Trump administration want to deter US investors from taking part in the IPO & say buying shares in the company could expose them to fraud.
3/14
Read 14 tweets
September #PMI thread (August in brackets) 1/8
🇪🇺 #Eurozone
🇩🇪 #Germany
🇫🇷 #France
🇮🇹 #Italy
🇪🇸 #Spain
🇬🇧 #UK
+ Note on how to read PMI
#economy #recession
🇪🇺 Eurozone PMI 2/8

“With the eurozone economy having almost stalled in September, the chances of a renewed downturn in the fourth quarter have clearly risen"

Composite 50.4 (51.9)
Services 48.0 (50.5)
#Eurozone #PMI

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr…
🇩🇪 Germany PMI 3/8

"Growth in the German service sector slowed to a crawl in September, as the rebound in activity from the COVID-19 lockdown continued to lose steam"

Services 50.6 (52.5)
Composite 54.7 (54.4)
#Germany #PMI

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr…
Read 8 tweets
🇪🇺 Eurozone #Manufacturing #PMI

#Eurozone manufacturing growth strongest for over two years, 53.7 (August 51.7)

🇩🇪 #Germany 56.4
🇮🇹 #Italy 53.2
🇳🇱 #Netherlands 52.5
🇦🇹 #Austria 51.7
🇫🇷 #France 51.2
🇪🇸 #Spain 50.8
🇬🇷 #Greece 50.0
🇮🇪 #Ireland 50.0

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
🇩🇪 #Germany #Manufacturing #PMI

Sharp increases in output and new orders at end of third
quarter. Job shedding slows, but stocks show further steep declines.

September Manufacturing PMI 56.4 (August 52.2)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
🇫🇷 #France #Manufacturing #PMI

Business conditions improve amid faster rise in
production. Fractionally quicker increase in new orders
supported by export growth.

September Manufacturing PMI 51.2 (August 49.8)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
Read 8 tweets
September 2020 flash PMI in one thread, in following order

#US 🇺🇸
#UK 🇬🇧
#EuroZone 🇪🇺
#Germany 🇩🇪
#France 🇫🇷
#Japan 🇯🇵
#Australia 🇦🇺

+Note on diffusion indexes like the purchasing managers indexes, or #PMIs.

#economy #recession #recovery
🇺🇸 #US #PMI September 2020 (August)

Solid rise in private sector business activity in September

Composite Output 54.4 (54.6)
Services Business Activity 54.6 (55.0)
Manufacturing PMI 53.5 (53.1)
Manufacturing Output 53.3 (52.7)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
🇬🇧 #UK #PMI September 2020 (August)

Recovery loses momentum and business outlook drops to its weakest since May

Composite Output 55.7 (59.1)
Services Business Activity 55.1 (58.8)
Manufacturing Output 59.3 (61.0)
Manufacturing PMI 54.3 (55.2)

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
Read 9 tweets
The #deficit #myth #deficitmyth by @StephanieKelton #MMT modern monetary theory
Myth N. 1: The #state should budget like a #household
#RealityCheck : unlike a household, a #SovereignNation, which owns its national #centralbank, issues the #currency it spends
Myth N. 2: #deficit is evidence of #overspending
#RealityCheck: look to #inflation for evidence of over spending
The purpose of #taxes is not to pay for #government expenditures but to help rebalancing the #wealth distribution #MMT
Read 56 tweets
Recent PMI data in one thread

🇪🇺 Eurozone
🇺🇸 US
🇯🇵 Japan
🇩🇪 Germany
🇬🇧 UK
🇫🇷 France
🇦🇺 Australia

#EuroZone #US #Japan #Germany #UK #France #Australia #PMI #economy #recession
🇪🇺 Eurozone growth loses momentum in August

PMI Composite 51.6 (54.9 in July)
Services PMI 50.1 (54.7)
Manufacturing PMI Output 55.7 (55.3)
Manufacturing PMI at 51.7 (51.8)
#EuroZone #PMI #recession

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
🇺🇸 US August data pointed to further improvement in
business conditions across the private sector

Composite Output 54.7 (50.3 July)
Services Business Activity 54.8 (50.0)
Manufacturing PMI 53.6 (50.9)
Manufacturing Output 53.9 (51.7)
#US #PMI #recession

markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/Pr… Image
Read 8 tweets
First leg #GDP results:

🇬🇧 #UK -20.4
🇪🇸 #Spain -18.5
🇫🇷 #France -13.8
🇮🇹 #Italy -12.4
🇪🇺 #EuroZone -12.1
🇩🇪 #Germany -10.1
🇺🇸 #US -9.5
🇸🇪 #Sweden -8.6
🇫🇮 #Finland -3.2
#recession

ec.europa.eu/eurostat/docum… Image
Euro area sheds half of jobs created since last recession

“...Bet vast sums on a swift economic recovery drawing furloughed employees back to work. Latest data show that progress is slowing, raising the prospect of mass lay offs...”
#EuroZone #recession

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Read 3 tweets
#Spain manufacturing PMI (Jul) 53.5 v 52.0 exp. (prev 49.0)

$EUR
#Italy manufacturing PMI (Jul) 51.9 v 51.2 exp. (prev 47.5)

$EUR
#France manufacturing PMI (Jul F) 52.4 v 52.0 exp. (flash est 52.0, Jun 52.3)

$EUR
Read 6 tweets
A thread on how to fix the #Eurozone (and the #EU).

With the #RecoveryFund , the #EU has arrived to a pivotal point. Accepting the Fund would take us into a federation, while declining would, very likely, lead to euro-exits.

So, which option to choose? 1/20
The #EU was established to end the wars and create political stability and prosperity across Europe.

Before the creation of the euro, it looked to accomplish just that. Europe started to grow together.

Unfortunately, euro has now reversed basically all that progress. 2/
After the Global Financial Crisis, the euro became, not the symbol of prosperity, but a symbol of poverty and human suffering.

Many member countries are now poorer than before the euro and some, like Finland, have never recovered from the GFC.

Moreover,... 3/
Read 20 tweets
Some take aways from the BoA 'Global Fund Manager Survey'...(1/5) HT @MillennialMacro
2/5 Global fund manager survey key takeaways...71% think the stock market is overvalued...While still heavily allocated to #US markets, the #EU is most favoured regional equity long & Euro expected to appreciate...#Investing #Macro ImageImageImage
3/5 Global funds managers #commodities allocation is the "highest overweight since July 2011"...Most favoured: #Eurozone, #Materials, #Tech, #Healthcare...Not Favoured: 'Value', Global #Banks, #Bonds, #UK & #Energy...#Investing #Macro #AssetAllocation ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
A financial crisis is probably the most feared economic event known to man.

I've done (mostly acad.) research on them for over 10 years.

As we are likely closing in on one, a thread on the anatomy of a financial crisis.

The #coronavirus is just a'trigger'.1/16
@GnSEconomics
Financial crisis are born of some shock (smaller or larger) to the banking system.

The #coronavirus pandemic has been a rather massive trigger for a latent and overdue banking crisis.

If a banking system is sound and robust, it can usually withstand financial and... 2/
...economic shocks. But a banking system may be fragile.

Usually this is due to high leverage levels, where banks have either lent aggressively or carry risky financial investments on their balance sheets—usually both.

Banks can also have a weak financial position,... 3/
Read 16 tweets
I think it's time for this now.

A thread on leaving of the euro.

Over the years, I have turned to a full-blown euro-skeptic. If one figure could be used to describe my transformation, it would be this. 👇

Simply put, euro has been an economic menace. 1/24
#Eurozone
But, how to leave from it?

As everything starts with the legal/political arguments, for the euro-exit, there are three:

1. National emergency
2. Other force majeure
3. A change or violation of the Acts of the Treaties and/or principles of the Eurozone.

2/
In the case of a national emergency (wars, epidemics, econ crises), a country may temporarily bypass all treaties and pursue actions needed to overcome the emergency.

Other force majeure refer to events that are abnormal, unforeseeable and beyond the control... 3/
Read 25 tweets
#BREAKING ECB leaves key interest rates unchanged and vows to spend extra 600 bn euro on emergency bond buys
#BREAKING Eurozone economy to shrink 8.7% in 2020 before 2021 rebound: European Central Bank chief
#UPDATE Downgraded growth and inflation forecasts and uncertainty about the course of the #coronavirus pandemic has prompted the ECB to again pump up its support to the #eurozone, with 600 billion euros ($674 billion) more of emergency bond-buying u.afp.com/3d6E
Read 3 tweets
#BREAKING Eurozone area inflation to drop to 0.1% in May from 0.3% in April: Eurostat
#UPDATE Inflation in the #eurozone single currency area dropped to 0.1% in May from 0.3% in April, the official Eurostat agency said on Friday, as the EU entered the sharpest recession in its history due to #coronavirus lockdowns u.afp.com/3AsL
#BREAKING Brazil GDP contracted 1.5% in first quarter due to #coronavirus pandemic shutdown: govt
Read 7 tweets

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