Interested in Financial Markets, Macro, Politics and Economics. Want to revive the hobby of drawing cartoons.
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Aug 14, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
RIP Anshu Jain.
He broke the glass ceiling and he is the reason lot of Indians joined sales and trading roles in global investment banks.
While I never worked in DB, the guy who hired me in Merrill Lynch out of campus was ex DB, and rated Indians highly …
Ravi Mattoo at Lehman was IIMA and then did a PhD in US and got a lot of IIM students in fixed income research in NY …
But Anshu Jain - got Indians in trading, sales and structuring.
In 2006 we grads were called the Indian Mafia in London … we were Anshu’s boys (and girls)
1. Yoga and Meditation Retreat 2. Some hiking 3. Cultural program at Lama Yuru village 4. River Rafting at Zanskar river (till the Sangam with Indus) 5. Motorcycling upto to #KhardungLa …
Best #BlockLeave ever … (pics follow)
I am not the best #Yoga practitioner … but hopefully get better with practice
May 6, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
One of the best podcasts I have heard in recent times.
5 Allies every man (or woman) needs … podcasts.apple.com/sg/podcast/the…
It’s so true how we all need to move away from ‘toxic’ or ‘negative energy’ people or ‘energy vampires’ …
When some one shows up and sucks the energy out of the room. Or a perma doomsday guy …
And if we have some one like that - we need to have a conversation about it
1. Freedom to sell to anyone vs the previous restriction to sell at APMC (Agri Produce Marketing Company) - which was a monopoly
Allows to bypass intermediaries and sell direct to consumer or a wholesaler in a city.
Can still sell to APMC
May 6, 2020 • 22 tweets • 6 min read
While every one is fighting #Covid19 and focussing on the immediate situation - this #crisis surely presents an #opportunity.
My favourite quote is - In the Chinese Language - the word for Crisis is - 危机 (WeiJi or Wéijī) which means Danger + Opportunity
This is my wishlist🧵
India has tried to start on the right foot by offering large land parcels to companies wishing to move their supply chain outside China.
But is Land only enough? economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/p…
Apr 14, 2020 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Today is April 14, 2020.
Let me tell you the story of something interesting happened on April 14th, 1944 at about 4pm in Bombay ...
Its a first hand story, told to me by my Grandfather who was on the scene at Victoria Dock (also known as Princess Dock) Bombay ... 1/n
So the timing - its 1944, World War 2 hasnt ended yet (Normandy landings were to happen later in June 1944, and Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings in Aug 1945) ...
Indian freedom struggle post the 1942 Quit India movement had reached a pause due to the war
Mar 28, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
While many countries are in lockdown some books I would recommend (especially relevant now)
- Selfish Gene by @RichardDawkins
- Fooled By Randomness, Blackswan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game by @nntaleb
- Guns, Germs and Steel by Jared Diamond (also Collapse by same author) ..
- Sapiens, Homo Deus, 21 Things for 21st Century by Yuval Noah Harari
- The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe
Mar 22, 2020 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Lot of people are calling for a closing of stock markets too.
I think its a terrible idea in an emerging market like India.
These are my thoughts why ... 🧵
1. India has a large % of Foreigners (FPI or Foreign Portfolio Investors) invested in the market.
India depends on foreigners buying its asset to fund for its net imports.
If they cant sell, it creates a red flag and will be dropped from Stock Benchmarks like MSCI
Mar 21, 2020 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
Saturday night self quarantine thoughts on the 2 crisis in 2008 and 2020 and how well the world was prepared in between ...
From #GFC to #covid19
2008 was a shock due to excessive household debt in the US, and excessive risk taking by under capitalised shadow banks (broker dealers like Lehman which werent deposit taking institution but pure investment banks)
The bigger issue was interconnected ness of the financial system
Mar 9, 2020 • 37 tweets • 8 min read
Thread on #GameTheory#prosonersdilemma and #Oil prices #OPEC#OPEC+ #Shale
OPEC was formed in the 1970s and the cartel could control prices - because the global economy runs on oil, and bulk of the reserves were in the Middle East.
They figured out, Oil Demand is inelastic. People have to buy no matter what price. It’s the most dense form of energy.
Mar 6, 2020 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
After the news of Yes Bank's AT1 Bonds going to zero a thread on Capital Structure of a Bank (any typical Bank)
cc @teasri@deepakshenoy@andymukherjee70@IndradeepKhan@RajeevthePawar
(#FF all above handles for Indian Finance)
Any Bank is an extremely leveraged entity.
It has source of funds -> Equity Investment, and Debt (in simplest of cases from retail deposits)
Use of funds -> lends out to different borrowers.
Banks have 2 main functions
- Creating Credit (lending money)
- Creating Duration
@TheStalwart@tracyalloway@bennpeifert So the main point is the rising amount of savings in East Asia (Korea, Japan) which leads to investments in Structured Products. (They had a similar podcast with @Brad_Setser on Taiwanese Lifers - though more focussed on USDTWD hedging)
...
Jan 12, 2020 • 28 tweets • 5 min read
I would disagree on the NDF volumes moving onshore and there are a few reasons for it ... 🧵
Bulk of FX activity globally is speculative. And a tiny bit is actual hedging. (I would say from volumes 95% is speculative)
The hedging activity from corporates hedging grade flows and institutional investors hedging equity or debt holding is held for long tenor ...
Dec 31, 2019 • 42 tweets • 7 min read
Thread on China - the back story, predictions for 2020s and comparisons with India 🧵
China - the back story of growth
China after World War 2 had a Republican Government lead by a party Kuomintang 'KMT' (1945 to 1949) which was defeated by Communists, but the KMT leaders escaped to Taiwan and established 'Republic of China' or ROC there
Dec 29, 2019 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
6. Oil and Gas trends for 2020s
If there was a big event in 2010s was the rise of Shale Oil
Now US is the worlds largest producer of oil (12 mio barrels per day) ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia.
This will keep the oil prices capped for the next decade
Saudi Arabia was producing 10% of the worlds oil consumption, and the OPEC was controlling 30%
They could change production and hence influence oil prices.
But US going from 5% to 13-14% of world production - Shale is the swing producer
Dec 26, 2019 • 35 tweets • 8 min read
As 2019 (and the decade) draws to a close, some thoughts on trends in the coming decade. Few things which I feel will drive the change
1. Demographics 2. Renewable energy and batteries 3. MMT takes over policy 4. Regulatory squeeze on Tech firms
1. Demographics
The western world (particularly US) saw the Baby Boomers born in 1945-64 after fewer kids born during the World War 2.
Median Boomer was born in 1955 and retires in 2020.
That has large implications to the world of finance ...
Dec 18, 2019 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Given @nsitharaman has asked for suggestions on the budget 2020, sharing my thoughts. (also posting on mygov.in website)
These are my own views, and happy to engage but please dont troll ... following views reflect my right of center economic bias 🧵
@nsitharaman 1. Reduce subsidies in a glide manner
Rail fares, LPG connections, Electricity, Water, Fertilizers … are all heavily subsidized. A 5% hike in prices (with a plan to keep hiking 5% each year) can reduce subsidy burden & eliminate cross subsidy from manufacturing industry
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