Due to a huge blindspot and hubris, #PFDJ considers its weakest link—foreign policy—its strongest asset. But catalog its outcome since 1991–#Sudan, #Yemen Ethiopia, #USA, #Djibouti, #Qatar, #UAE, —and all you see is a debris of blunders engineered by self-conceit.

Unlike the rest of its blunders which are deviations from its own Charter, this miscalculation is baked in the Charter itself. In other words, the problem is not bad execution of a good principle; the problem is excellent execution of bad principle.

When it comes to the #Eritrea|n government’s foreign policy, how often does it get it wrong? Always. How many times is the right lesson learned? Never! Don’t be surprised by what’s coming in 2025: it’s part of #PFDJ’s nature.

The receipt: 🧵 #Sudan: it’s 1994. Sudan’s ruling party, National Islamic Front (later National Congress) had an Islamist military boss (Omar Al Beshir) and an Islamist ideologue (Al-Turabi.) The latter was a media darling being quoted for this and that in his Sorbonne University polish. They decided to host Bin Laden and Bin Laden, before his move to Afghanistan and points beyond, was supporting #Eritrea’s armed Islamists parties.

Perfectly valid reason to go to war.

#PFDJ did more: it announced that its goal is not just to defeat but to overthrow the Sudanese government publicly (reported in The Economist magazine.) Then it turned over the Sudanese embassy in Asmara to Sudanese opposition.

How it ended: the military leader of Sudan, Omar Al Beshir, emerged stronger, sidelined al-Turabi. He went back to retake the Sudanese embassy in Eritrea and the two had off and on relationship for decades until he was overthrown by popular Sudanese uprising in 2018.

Writing for state website @shabait, Bana Negusse articulates #Eritrea’ ruling party interpretation of history (1941-present): the rage it feels against 🇺🇸informs Eritrean foreign policy; and the 20-years of consequences of said policy.



A rebuttal.shabait.com/2023/08/26/vio… 2. Main points:

a. #Eritrea deserved independence after World War II but was denied by USA (1941-62)

b. USA supported #Ethiopia during armed struggle (1961-91): border war (1998-00), post war (2000-18)

c. It did this by subsidizing #TPLF & emboldening it to ignore treaties

Peoples Front: A Movement dedicated to the righteous cause of resisting forceful annexation: & it delivered #Eritrea’s statehood, inspiring other freedom fighters.

Peoples Front: first to endorse #Russia’s forceful annexation of #Crimea #Ukraine (2014) because it’s 🇺🇸 fault.

https://twitter.com/ytmn2/status/1638582739443019776

Green. Red. Yellow. 143-5-3. Even #China, #Russias alleged BFF, abstains, not cross all the way to crazy town to endorse forceful annexation: an anathema to #Eritrea|s recent birth pangs. The excuse is worse than the act: the devil (America) made #Russia do it.

In another tweet which I will append below, I write about the dizzying diplomacy that #Eritrea #Sudan #Somalia #SouthSudan are going thru. Here, I am going to include momentous changes all happening at once. A New World Order?

This happened, via #China

newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/w… “Last week, #SaudiArabia and #Iran announced that they would reëstablish diplomatic relations after seven years of severed ties. The two nations pledged to reopen their embassies and also agreed to begin coöperating in areas such as security and trade.”

1. Disclosure: I am on record as having said Statecraft is very hard. So critique of #Eritrea prez is within context of “statecraft is hard, but he makes it harder.” Let’s discuss today’s show (not interview) whose topics covered role of investment, including FDI, in economy. 2. Of the many levers used for economic development and which ones to prioritize, choosing is hard because everything is a priority in subsistence economies. Economics not being a hard science (and even its social science status being questionable) it’s a lot of trial and error.

At Qatar, in response to #Eritrean opposition leader Isaias Afwerki who keeps trashing all the achievement of his government, Ambassador Sophia outlines all of them. Speaking of Qatar…. shabait.com/2023/03/08/sta… 2010: After two years of denying it had any disputes with #Djibouti and getting sanctioned for its refusal to mediate the dispute, #Eritrea accepts Qatar mediation for its dispute with #Djibouti

sudantribune.com/article35095/

#Eritrea|s ambassador to #Sudan has been #Eritrea|s ambassador to #Sudan for 20 years and he has been saying the same thing he has been saying for 20 years: enemies, መኸተ, war….

Seminar to nationals in Khartoum – Eritrea Ministry Of Information shabait.com/2022/08/29/sem… … the ruling party’s decay is not just at the chairman (Isaias) level but also like him, since 1994:

Political director: Yemane Gebreab
Economic director: Hagos Ghebrehiwet
National Security: Abraha Kassa
Cultural Affairs: Zemehret Yohannes
Secretary: Alamin Mohammed Seid

When you combine these two:

1. A government which disowns its people the minute they show any sign of independence.

2. An opposition that is not able to prove itself as viable entity with organizational discipline.

You get an embittered, misled, disenfranchised youth. This is what has happened to #Eritrea|ns: youth were, via perpetual war and indefinite conscription, forced labor and economic paralysis, losing agency over their own life, forced to leave their county: 608,000 by 2019:

nytimes.com/2020/01/08/wor…

One Question Not Asked In 4 Months:

How many young #Ethiopia|ns & #Eritrea|ns enlisted or conscripted in the ENDF, ASF, TDF, EDF have been killed in the stupid war? Until we ask, and insist on an answer, the war will not stop. #HowManyDied? If are comforted by the lullabies of your side (whichever side you are on),remember the 98-00 #Eritrea-#Ethiopia “border war” was 24 months of standstill interrupted by 1 month (cumulative) of battle. 100,00 young lives perished then! The current war is 4 months of non-stop war.

It’s #FatuousFriday: just back from Planet NNNN, with its alternative facts, and I am here to share with my compats. Since everything Isaias touches turns to ashes, the promising political career of @AbiyAhmedAli is facing the abyss too. But, hey: war is peace and peace is war More “War Is Peace, Peace Is War”: According to the “Abiy Is Our Leader #Eritrea Is Our Country”mob from #Ethiopia, joined by Isaiaists, when 🇺🇸 and EU call for end to war, it is warmongering!

Happy Friday: #Ethiopia|ns & “fellow #Eritreans across the border”! After 4 months of lies & denials, and less than a week after @ChrisCoons delivered the @POTUS msg that #Ethiopia is committing “systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing” in #Tigray, @PMEthiopia folds like a card: The move came less than a week after @AbiyAhmedAli chose the parliament as his venue to admit what the whole world, except a few in #Eritrea|s NNNN Party #PFDJ and #Ethiopia|s Abiy Cult, knew: #Eritrean|s have been fighting inside #Tigray with knowledge & approval of @PMEthiopia

Short @AbiyAhmedAli: We defeated #TPLF (june tah) completely & #Eritrea is in #Ethiopia only because we are at war with TPLF whom we have defeated completely 4 month ago. Mayyybe our soldiers & Isaias did a little raping here and there but TPLF ATTACKED NORTHERN COMMAND!

https://twitter.com/PMEthiopia/status/1374400535504117771

(2) #Eritrea|ns have made a very strong argument as to why they cannot withdraw from sovereign #Ethiopia|n territories, because they fear being attacked by #TPLF (who I have totally annihilated) and I must say I find their arguments compelling. The war is to catch 12 people.

#Afroptimistic Sunday: (T)Horn of #Africa Edition

Looking at the #Ethiopia|n War in Tigray & the ensuing carnage--death, dismemberment, displacement--& #Eritrea|s "self-defense" foray, there is not much to be optimistic about, but there could be if we act as Citizens of the Horn The Horn of #Africa has no citizens, just subjects.

Citizens are free and, collectively, own sovereignty. They hire and fire their leaders.

Subjects are powerless, looking up to The Sovereign, who demands total obedience. Dissent results in disappearance, death, exile.

Mesfin Hagos (founding member of the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (#EPLF) in the 1970s who served as Minister of Defense in the 1990s), the most authoritative voice on #Eritrea|n military affairs, reveals the extent of #Eritrean involvement in the #Ethiopia|n war.

Thread (2/18) In an address to his country’s parliament on November 30, 2020, #Ethiopia’s Prime Minister confirmed #Eritrea|n support to his ongoing war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (#TPLF), the regional government of the northern regional state of Tigray...

(1/10) This is a report card on #Eritrea Prez Isaias Afwerki considered by himself & NNNN as a political architect of the Horn of Africa. From #Somalia, #Sudan, #SouthSudan, #Djibouti, to #Ethiopia, he has wasted #Eritrean treasury grooming satellite orgs. All for nothing. (2/10) #SouthSudan: The #SPLA had members who were for secession & members for reforming Sudan and remaining part of it. Despite Isaias Afwerki's cries, the secessionist won and they proved it in a referendum where 99% voted for independence. Isaias didn't attend the ceremony.