What is the lesson from #HartlepoolByElection for forecasting future elections?
I have 2 hypotheses.
1. Hartlepool was behind the curve in #GE2019 & the by-election represents catch up.
2. #Brexit realignment of British politics is still continuing.
Let's look at them... /1
I have 2 hypotheses.
1. Hartlepool was behind the curve in #GE2019 & the by-election represents catch up.
2. #Brexit realignment of British politics is still continuing.
Let's look at them... /1
The 1st can be confirmed just by looking at CON vote share changes between 2010 & 2019 in Hartlepool's 4 neighbours.
Easington > from 14% to 26%
Sedgefield > from 23% to 47%
Stockton N > from 26% to 41%
Redcar > from 14% to 46%
Hartlepool > from 28% to 29%
So the jump ...
/2
Easington > from 14% to 26%
Sedgefield > from 23% to 47%
Stockton N > from 26% to 41%
Redcar > from 14% to 46%
Hartlepool > from 28% to 29%
So the jump ...
/2
... to 52% in this by-election can be put down to #Hartlepool copying its neighbours 2 years late.
But could this indicate the Brexit realignment of 2019 was incomplete & there could be more Hartlepool's?
The answer is yes. Note how nearly all BXP voters went to CON ...
/3
But could this indicate the Brexit realignment of 2019 was incomplete & there could be more Hartlepool's?
The answer is yes. Note how nearly all BXP voters went to CON ...
/3
... in Hartlepool.
How many more LAB seats could CON win if all BXP+UKIP voters switched to CON?
Answer is 35 where CON is already in 2nd place to LAB.
The list is shown below with seats ordered by the combined BXP+UKIP 2019 vote.
I've not included the 2 Barnsley seats...
/4
How many more LAB seats could CON win if all BXP+UKIP voters switched to CON?
Answer is 35 where CON is already in 2nd place to LAB.
The list is shown below with seats ordered by the combined BXP+UKIP 2019 vote.
I've not included the 2 Barnsley seats...
/4
... & Blaenau Gwent where BXP is 2nd to LAB.
To see if it's feasible for all BXP+UKIP voters to switch to CON, my table above has a LV DIFF column.
This is the difference between a Possible CON19 share & actual CON19 share.
Possible CON19 = 0.7 * %LV16 + 0.2 * %RM16
I ...
/5
To see if it's feasible for all BXP+UKIP voters to switch to CON, my table above has a LV DIFF column.
This is the difference between a Possible CON19 share & actual CON19 share.
Possible CON19 = 0.7 * %LV16 + 0.2 * %RM16
I ...
/5
... used this Possible CON19 as 1 of 7 models I used in my #GE2019 forecast where I was the most accurate forecaster (see bit.ly/2Q2qepM).
The 70% & 20% came from what the final polls said (bit.ly/3b9KbCu) and latest polls confirm this is still the case...
/6
The 70% & 20% came from what the final polls said (bit.ly/3b9KbCu) and latest polls confirm this is still the case...
/6
So Hartlepool, since it voted 70% leave, 0.7*0.7 + 0.2*0.3 = 55% is the Possible CON19 share.
Since they got 29% in 2019, the LV DIFF is 55-29% = +26% as shown.
They actually got 52% in the byelection which means there was 3% spare.
As my table shows, 8 of the other 35 ...
/7
Since they got 29% in 2019, the LV DIFF is 55-29% = +26% as shown.
They actually got 52% in the byelection which means there was 3% spare.
As my table shows, 8 of the other 35 ...
/7
... have spare votes less than or equal to Hartlepool & are probably not at immediate risk.
The other 27 though must be regarded at risk for LAB if polls remain where they are today.
Top of list after Hartlepool is Ed Milliband in Doncaster.
Next is Hartlepool's neighbour.
/8
The other 27 though must be regarded at risk for LAB if polls remain where they are today.
Top of list after Hartlepool is Ed Milliband in Doncaster.
Next is Hartlepool's neighbour.
/8
... Easington, 1 of 7 more NE seats that are vulnerable.
As bad as it is for LAB in NE, it's even worse in Yorkshire where 11 seats will be firmly in CON's cross-hairs.
So to repeat, #HartlepoolByElection was definitely a case of the seat catching up with the red wall...
/9
As bad as it is for LAB in NE, it's even worse in Yorkshire where 11 seats will be firmly in CON's cross-hairs.
So to repeat, #HartlepoolByElection was definitely a case of the seat catching up with the red wall...
/9
... collapse of #GE2019 and keeping up with the Joneses.
But before we get onto the question if the Brexit realignment is still continuing today, Labour has to shore up its defences in at least 27 seats that will share Hartlepool's fate unless action is taken.
/end
But before we get onto the question if the Brexit realignment is still continuing today, Labour has to shore up its defences in at least 27 seats that will share Hartlepool's fate unless action is taken.
/end
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