Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Tore
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BREAKING: Vaughan Developer Allegedly Accused of Bank Fraud in Stouffville Townhome Project.
Social media chatter in recent days has revealed a possible bank fraud case involving the owners of @StateviewHomes, a residential real estate developer based in #Vaughan with a specific
Social media chatter in recent days has revealed a possible bank fraud case involving the owners of @StateviewHomes, a residential real estate developer based in #Vaughan with a specific
focus on their townhome project "Elm & Co" located in Stouffville, Ontario. The three owners of Stateview Homes, identified as Dino, Carlo and Daniel Taurasi, have been allegedly accused of fraudulent activity by @TD_Canada. (check screenshots as proof in the end)
TD Bank has reportedly caught them in the act of check kiting, a type of check fraud. As a result, TD Bank has placed a $37 million lien on all of Stateview Homes' properties, including their personal homes, offices, and ongoing projects, including Elm & Co.
A builder with a presold site for almost 150 homes in York Region is now confidentially selling the site & all 150 homebuyers will get deposits refunded & agreements cancelled. Pretty sure they were “reservation agreements” so they have zero legal value. I have warned about such… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Update on this developing story - this builder is now selling 4-5 sites, each with 150-300 presold/reserved homes. If one looks back at my tweets from one year ago, I had actually identified the builder and described exactly what’s unfolding now. Spoke to journos and regulators… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
They are selling their Ferraris. AMG Mercedes, their Rolex sky dweller watches. Firing their in-house custom tailor, in-house legal counsel & about 70% of their staff. 2nd & 3rd mortgages on newly bought mansions in York region. Selling off lots of extra office space they bought… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Thanks to Schulich for inviting me to give another guest lecture. Always interesting to see the questions from these enquiring real estate minds. 
We did a poll at the end and about 60% indicated that they wanted to work in an office setting.
Personally, as a young person I think it has huge value for the education, mentorship and camaraderie.
Personally, as a young person I think it has huge value for the education, mentorship and camaraderie.
Canada's population and annual change in population by year since 1950.
If you're buying real estate, there are only two kinds of Realtors you want.
The thing they have in common is they both understand long-term and non-monetary value. Here's what to look for.
<thread> 🧵👇 #ToRE #VanRe
The thing they have in common is they both understand long-term and non-monetary value. Here's what to look for.
<thread> 🧵👇 #ToRE #VanRe
2. The first is "buy when it's right for you" agents, that know you don't need to be convinced.
People will always want to own their own home, and need a secure anchor in a neighborhood, or a commercial property to conduct business.
People will always want to own their own home, and need a secure anchor in a neighborhood, or a commercial property to conduct business.
3. These agents will explain that you should buy what you can afford, don't stretch yourself, and timing the market is *really* hard.
Would you gamble a slightly bigger home for a few bucks a month, or do you want to own a place now because you have kids or whatever?
Would you gamble a slightly bigger home for a few bucks a month, or do you want to own a place now because you have kids or whatever?
The second these things learn to flip houses and fill out mortgage applications, 🇨🇦's economy is toast.
Get results with Skynet’s #1 Realtor.*
*1% in volume for sales in District 9 when representing transnational money launderers washing local politician bribes.
*1% in volume for sales in District 9 when representing transnational money launderers washing local politician bribes.
Hey Toronto 👋
Let’s start a city-owned housing company.
Instead of selling off land for cheap to developers, we can develop it ourselves & create rent stabilized apartments. 🥳
#LetsFixIt #topoli #ToRe
tiktok.com/@stephenpunwas…
Let’s start a city-owned housing company.
Instead of selling off land for cheap to developers, we can develop it ourselves & create rent stabilized apartments. 🥳
#LetsFixIt #topoli #ToRe
tiktok.com/@stephenpunwas…
2/ Under this mayor, Toronto literally sold public land for a toonie.
Building “affordable” housing is quite profitable if you’re paying less than the price of a soda for land.
Why isn’t the city running these rentals?
#topoli #toronto
toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2…
Building “affordable” housing is quite profitable if you’re paying less than the price of a soda for land.
Why isn’t the city running these rentals?
#topoli #toronto
toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2…
3/ Let’s build medium density, mixed use rental buildings.
We can use the revenues from the commercial component to subsidize low income units in the building.
The current system of housing financialization and monetary policy is breaking how cities work. #LetsFixIt
We can use the revenues from the commercial component to subsidize low income units in the building.
The current system of housing financialization and monetary policy is breaking how cities work. #LetsFixIt
#vanre #tore #cdnre #usre #EU #REITS #ItsSpeculationStupid #financialization #commodification #cdnpoli #uspoli
"Institutional investors...have squeezed residential markets in many parts of the world, can be expected to pick up a purchasing pace that has turned them into the world’s biggest private landlords and transformed rental housing into a go-to global asset class."
“Institutional ownership threatens to accelerate the trends unleashed by the financialization of housing”
"...automated digital platforms have made it easier and cheaper to track, price, acquire and manage large swaths of homes in multiple communities."
"...automated digital platforms have made it easier and cheaper to track, price, acquire and manage large swaths of homes in multiple communities."
🇨🇦 should think twice a housing bailing out.
A drop in home prices will restore productive investment & over half of the largest voting demographic currently has no chance of homeownership.
Things like increasing the CMHC limit is a death blow to the future.
#ToRe #VanRe 1/
A drop in home prices will restore productive investment & over half of the largest voting demographic currently has no chance of homeownership.
Things like increasing the CMHC limit is a death blow to the future.
#ToRe #VanRe 1/
2/ Not everyone needs to own, but affordable shelter needs to be the alternative.
The fewer anchors young & skilled labor has, the more likely they’ll migrate to countries that will heavily outcompete 🇨🇦.
Live in a micro apartment to fund my retirement, isn’t a great pitch.
The fewer anchors young & skilled labor has, the more likely they’ll migrate to countries that will heavily outcompete 🇨🇦.
Live in a micro apartment to fund my retirement, isn’t a great pitch.
3/ we know increasing leverage allows people to borrow more future income to pay for a home, increasing prices.
Yet policymakers are hell bent on making sure you can borrow more.
They don’t limit 30% of your income for housing to save you, they want 30% perpetually.
Yet policymakers are hell bent on making sure you can borrow more.
They don’t limit 30% of your income for housing to save you, they want 30% perpetually.
TV in 🇨🇦 is wild rn. 🤣
Don’t have enough cash to buy a house? Why not become a private lender & lend people money to buy a house. You can earn up to 20% interest. 🤷♂️
I made an obvious edit to trim the segment to fit on Twitter, but I’ll link the whole vid under.
#VanRe #ToRe
Don’t have enough cash to buy a house? Why not become a private lender & lend people money to buy a house. You can earn up to 20% interest. 🤷♂️
I made an obvious edit to trim the segment to fit on Twitter, but I’ll link the whole vid under.
#VanRe #ToRe
2/ btw not knocking CityLine or the guest.
They’re just presenting what everyone is suggesting right now. It’s just a wild climate to see daytime TV suggest becoming an unregulated lender as a side hustle so you can one day pay for shelter.
They’re just presenting what everyone is suggesting right now. It’s just a wild climate to see daytime TV suggest becoming an unregulated lender as a side hustle so you can one day pay for shelter.
There are 4 stages to a Canadian money laundering case.
1: Allegations. Say they launder $200 million per year.
2: Seizure. Take their Starbucks gift cards.
3: Abort. Guess we screwed up, sorry about the inconvenience.
4: Loose ends. Alleged money launderer dies.
1: Allegations. Say they launder $200 million per year.
2: Seizure. Take their Starbucks gift cards.
3: Abort. Guess we screwed up, sorry about the inconvenience.
4: Loose ends. Alleged money launderer dies.
3/ The government is right. We need to follow the money!
Oh, crap. It led to the police. This is awkward. 😬
globalnews.ca/news/7568801/r…
Oh, crap. It led to the police. This is awkward. 😬
globalnews.ca/news/7568801/r…
I see Incel/YIMBY Twitter is coordinating criticism of me.
Here's a brief recap of our relationship.
<thread> 🧵 👇
#ToRe #VanRe
Here's a brief recap of our relationship.
<thread> 🧵 👇
#ToRe #VanRe
2.
Me (2016): Corrupt politicians from China are washing their money in Vancouver, in one of the biggest grafts in history.
YIMBYS: RACIST! That's a lie!
China (2017): Canada. Turn over our fucking criminals.
Me (2016): Corrupt politicians from China are washing their money in Vancouver, in one of the biggest grafts in history.
YIMBYS: RACIST! That's a lie!
China (2017): Canada. Turn over our fucking criminals.
3.
Me (2017): We built one of the most elaborate capital tracking systems, more complicated than the gov. Money laundering is rampant in Vancouver. This is how it comes in, right down to the gang.
YIMBYS: Fake news!
BC gov (2018): Stephen's right, down to the gang and origin.
Me (2017): We built one of the most elaborate capital tracking systems, more complicated than the gov. Money laundering is rampant in Vancouver. This is how it comes in, right down to the gang.
YIMBYS: Fake news!
BC gov (2018): Stephen's right, down to the gang and origin.
Liberals now promising a ban on foreign ownership of real estate.
I thought Liberal supporters said this was xenophobic when the Conservatives proposed it? 🤷♂️
#elxn44 #VanRe #ToRe
I thought Liberal supporters said this was xenophobic when the Conservatives proposed it? 🤷♂️
#elxn44 #VanRe #ToRe
2. Interesting sidenote. Trudeau made the announcement in Hamilton, Ontario.
The IMF told us Hamilton was 40% overvalued, one of the largest overvaluations in the world.
Here's the IMF model they shared, and this exclusively happened under the Liberal government.
#HamOnt
The IMF told us Hamilton was 40% overvalued, one of the largest overvaluations in the world.
Here's the IMF model they shared, and this exclusively happened under the Liberal government.
#HamOnt
3. For anyone else that's curious, this is what the IMF models look like for Toronto and Vancouver.
Once again, almost all of this gap between fundamentals and price occurs under the Liberal government.
#ToRe #VanRe
betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-…
Once again, almost all of this gap between fundamentals and price occurs under the Liberal government.
#ToRe #VanRe
betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-…
People keep comparing rent subsidies to minimum wage increases.
This isn't even close to the same, and implies a very poor grasp of basic economics and business.
Quick thread. 🧵👇
This isn't even close to the same, and implies a very poor grasp of basic economics and business.
Quick thread. 🧵👇
2. Idiots say if you raise the minimum wage by $1, it'll result in much more expensive food.
We know that's not necessarily true, because a $1 increase to labor is not a $1 increase to product output. It doesn't take a whole hour.
It takes 5 min. So it adds 9 cents.
We know that's not necessarily true, because a $1 increase to labor is not a $1 increase to product output. It doesn't take a whole hour.
It takes 5 min. So it adds 9 cents.
3. Giving cash subsidies for market housing is very different. When the cost of shelter is rising fast, the market can more easily absorb it.
That's how high home prices are justified. They cut interest rates, so now people can carry a higher cost of housing.
That's how high home prices are justified. They cut interest rates, so now people can carry a higher cost of housing.
WTF? Did Toronto police do a shift change to beat on protestors and homeless people for 8 hours, or is this just overtime?
#ToRe #Toronto
#ToRe #Toronto
Toronto “helping” the homeless by sending in the police to raid another tent village.
#ToRe #Toronto
#ToRe #Toronto
What’s happening here? Because it sure as heck looks like a cop lost his temper and took it out on someone.
#Toronto
#Toronto
Check out what happens to this young lady that runs over to stop what looks like a cop beating down a black guy for no apparent reason.
#Toronto
#Toronto
Canada created so much moral hazard, people *cannot* see risk.
Over 1 in 5 mortgages are going to over-leveraged borrowers.
Calling it. OFSI does something before the Fed, because it's reached regulatory risk. This is way worse than the US bubble.
#VanRe #ToRe
Over 1 in 5 mortgages are going to over-leveraged borrowers.
Calling it. OFSI does something before the Fed, because it's reached regulatory risk. This is way worse than the US bubble.
#VanRe #ToRe
I swear I'm not a witch. 🤣
What does a truck load of cocaine and Canadian real estate have in common? 🤔
How money launderers pay for it!
Due to capital controls restricting how much people can transfer out of countries, money launderers use a technique to evade warning flags - smurfing.
#VanRe #ToRe
How money launderers pay for it!
Due to capital controls restricting how much people can transfer out of countries, money launderers use a technique to evade warning flags - smurfing.
#VanRe #ToRe
2/ Smurfing is a technique pioneered by drug dealers, where large payments are broken into payments small enough to not trigger a warning.
For example, since anything above $10,000 is flagged in the US, drug dealers will get several people to make payments $9,999 or less.
For example, since anything above $10,000 is flagged in the US, drug dealers will get several people to make payments $9,999 or less.
3/ Now a few people caught this on my weekend laundering thread - if capital controls are US$50k/year, how do you make a $700k down payment on a $2 million home?
You smurf it! Get some friends (or hire people 😉) to send your money to several accounts in 🇨🇦, in different names.
You smurf it! Get some friends (or hire people 😉) to send your money to several accounts in 🇨🇦, in different names.
Want to know how money laundering priced you out of a home? 🙋♂️
One thing I hear often is launderers aren’t buying enough homes to influence prices. Not true.
It only seems that way if you don’t understand how asset prices are created.
Thread 🧵 👇
#VanRe #ToRe
One thing I hear often is launderers aren’t buying enough homes to influence prices. Not true.
It only seems that way if you don’t understand how asset prices are created.
Thread 🧵 👇
#VanRe #ToRe
2/ Prices aren’t just a function of input and output like people learned in Econ 101. It’s often influenced by a marginal buyer.
The marginal buyer is the one paying the most, that actually gets an asset. Competition between marginal buyers is what drives prices higher.
The marginal buyer is the one paying the most, that actually gets an asset. Competition between marginal buyers is what drives prices higher.
3/ usually a marginal buyer is trying to get the best value for their money, while still buying.
In regular market, two people go back and forth. Self-interest helps contain prices from rising too quickly.
In regular market, two people go back and forth. Self-interest helps contain prices from rising too quickly.
My bear case for Condos market in Tor
1- Pre-constructions: According to Urbanation Condo rprt in May. We have unsold inventory 13K units, 92% of the 76k units under construction pre-sold. As well, the 33K units in pre-construction were 79% sold = met financing targets./1 #tore
1- Pre-constructions: According to Urbanation Condo rprt in May. We have unsold inventory 13K units, 92% of the 76k units under construction pre-sold. As well, the 33K units in pre-construction were 79% sold = met financing targets./1 #tore
A record 29K (revised down to 25k) new condos were scheduled for occupancy in 2020 in the GTA by Q3, more than Half of units pre-sold to Investors, so plenty of "investors" supply to hit the market this year /2
2- Resell: While the MOI was low in May, it was the highest since 2015 . Condo inventory rising rapidly since May 1st and accelerated since June 1st, in the last 2 weeks, the new listings is much higher than last year. Vaughn sitting on 15MOI(sals 2-4 week, inventory higher YOY)
Okay, weekly 👀 at Sold-Over-Asking (SOA) numbers in the 416. I manually track this one way to heat-check the market, and I noticed back in wild 2017 that you could see things changing on a weekly basis. Same holds true now. First off here's Freeholds selling 20% or more OA.
Maybe the 25% in the one week was a bit of a fluke (you can see things are jagged and not purely linear. But you can see definite downturn since week ending March 15 (19%). So this has cooled off. /2
Now to regular SOA (I use 1% or more OA for this. I said that last week's 67% may have been a fluke too. But the 46% last week (ending Sundays) is a definite cooling indicator. It's the lowest since January. Even if it was a bit flukey low and next week it bounces up to 51%... /3
Weekly check-in on 416 sales transactions versus prior year. Freeholds (lowrise) and Condos moving down similarly in last 3 weeks. Now less than half of 2019 volumes. /1
Some context around 2019 volumes... For this time last year they were up over soft 2018 volumes but lower than recent volumes. Here is April 2019:
Freeholds: ⬆️15% vs. 2018,⬇️18% vs. 7-year avg
Condos: ⬆️6% vs. 2018,⬇️6% vs. 7-year avg
/2
Freeholds: ⬆️15% vs. 2018,⬇️18% vs. 7-year avg
Condos: ⬆️6% vs. 2018,⬇️6% vs. 7-year avg
/2
Here are the absolute numbers for 2020. Note they're never going to go to zero. There will always be some level of activity (barring further gov't action on this). #TOre /3
There's no moratorium on shady-looking stuff in Toronto #realestate during COVID-19. Listing goes up March 31 (Tues) 5:58 PM. No mention of Offers but obviously underpriced at $599K. Mentions seller is an agent (have last name as Broker of Record). /1
16 minutes later they update broker notes (section of MLS public can't see): "Offers Sunday April 4th 5Pm. Seller Reserves Right To Review & Accept Pre-Emptive Offer Without Notice."
Maybe they just forgot offer date? /2
Maybe they just forgot offer date? /2
Always love that "without notice stuff" - they're supposed to notify every agent that has expressed an interest in the place (e.g. booked a showing) if they get an offer. /3
RBC Economics with another new report out today (they've upped the frequency). Bullets from their summary:
▪️ expect activity to slow to a crawl in most markets across the country in April and as long as social distancing and lock-down measures are in place
/1
▪️ expect activity to slow to a crawl in most markets across the country in April and as long as social distancing and lock-down measures are in place
/1
▪️ unclear how long home prices will hold up
▪️ expect property values to come under increasing downward pressure the longer restrictions persist and the deeper the recession gets
▪️ Super thin activity also makes the market prone to erratic price moves.〰️
/2
▪️ expect property values to come under increasing downward pressure the longer restrictions persist and the deeper the recession gets
▪️ Super thin activity also makes the market prone to erratic price moves.〰️
/2
TRREB had predicted 97,000 transactions for 2020. Were tracking well the first 2.5 months. Now they're saying they're going to issue a revised forecast when they get some more info. /3
Sometimes when things are shifting so quickly, it's important to look at things on a weekly basis, instead of waiting for monthly data. This is one of those times. Two v interesting things in my 416 active listings this week.
1. Freehold listings (lowrise) went ⬇️ /1
1. Freehold listings (lowrise) went ⬇️ /1
It was only 11 listings (0.7%). It could be because of March break (which it really doesn't feel like now, eh?). Last 2 years it also went down in March break week. Then the next 2 weeks went +5.1%, +8.0% in 2018, and +5.3%, +11.2% in 2019. I doubt we'll see that bounce. /2
More interesting one is condos which went ⬆️200 listings. That 12.2% week over week increase is the largest jump I've seen since I've been tracking (Aug 2017). Now condos aren't as seasonal as houses, and last year's March break condo listings went up 4.5%. /3
