Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #vanre

Most recents (24)

"Vancouver’s housing cracks are showing.. What we are seeing on Vancouver’s streets is the result of policy-making that chooses supply of market-rate housing without understanding the consequences for vulnerable groups of people" - @Ayan604
theglobeandmail.com/amp/real-estat… #vanpoli #vanre
@Ayan604 .."the City played a role when it rezoned areas of downtown and helped drive those land values up further..The City wasn’t just greedy; they drove it in that direction." ..."Vancouverism, this concept that has been celebrated, is actually failing" #vanpoli
@Ayan604 Also at fault, "an urbanist movement in the past few years that has focused too largely on free market solutions without including vulnerable people in the equation. Downtown Van illustrates how such oversight can go so horribly wrong, leaving all members of community worse off."
Read 5 tweets
Couple of charts from RBC's latest Focus on Canadian Housing report.
Uptick in HPI YoY price growth in all 3 of these major 🇨🇦 markets (though Calgary still declining). #VanRE /1 Image
Active listings climbing, but bigger picture (moving avg) is still lower levels than most of last 13 years. /2 Image
SNLR got lower last month (towards Buyer's market territory). I'm unsure if the "pent-up demand" that came through in July and Aug sales looking good for summer levels will continue, or if we're just back to regular seasonality starting in fall. TBD. /3 Image
Read 4 tweets
What does a truck load of cocaine and Canadian real estate have in common? 🤔

How money launderers pay for it!

Due to capital controls restricting how much people can transfer out of countries, money launderers use a technique to evade warning flags - smurfing.

#VanRe #ToRe
2/ Smurfing is a technique pioneered by drug dealers, where large payments are broken into payments small enough to not trigger a warning.

For example, since anything above $10,000 is flagged in the US, drug dealers will get several people to make payments $9,999 or less.
3/ Now a few people caught this on my weekend laundering thread - if capital controls are US$50k/year, how do you make a $700k down payment on a $2 million home?

You smurf it! Get some friends (or hire people 😉) to send your money to several accounts in 🇨🇦, in different names.
Read 7 tweets
Want to know how money laundering priced you out of a home? 🙋‍♂️

One thing I hear often is launderers aren’t buying enough homes to influence prices. Not true.

It only seems that way if you don’t understand how asset prices are created.

Thread 🧵 👇

#VanRe #ToRe
2/ Prices aren’t just a function of input and output like people learned in Econ 101. It’s often influenced by a marginal buyer.

The marginal buyer is the one paying the most, that actually gets an asset. Competition between marginal buyers is what drives prices higher.
3/ usually a marginal buyer is trying to get the best value for their money, while still buying.

In regular market, two people go back and forth. Self-interest helps contain prices from rising too quickly.
Read 11 tweets
In your area, are there arguments between landlords and tenants? That certainly seems like the case in Canada's most expensive cities.

But in interviews, @_jennamoon and I found out that #COVID19 economic stress has got both sides agreeing on something. thestar.com/news/canada/20…
In interviews with @TorontoStar, landlords and tenants say they have felt unfairly judged and stereotyped.

However, both landlord and tenants have, in this rare moment, also found something they can agree on: The system is broken on both sides. thestar.com/news/canada/20… #COVID19
This is Jason Boyes. He works as an industrial mechanic and was able to buy a home in Kamloops in rural B.C.. But living in Vancouver, the most reasonable rent his family could find for a two-bedroom was $2,295/month. ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
This may be selection bias on our part, but for #vanre we do not see the same Armageddon scenarios as outlined in this piece.

Based on Macdonald Property Management's (macdonaldpm.com) sample of over 2,000+ rental properties that we manage in BC, we see the following:
In contrast, the commercial landscape is much more challenged:
Read 9 tweets
VSB reports to BC Gov so it's "complicated" but wherever you stand on Broadway & Birch being 16 floors or 28 floors, you must advocate for @CityofVancouver to be responsible in ensuring that adequate amenities exist.

Let me try a @j_mcelroy type breakdown for 🏫. #vanpoli #vanre
Let's take the scenario of a young couple living at the future Broadway & Birch with a young child that is about to enter Kindergarten.

The point of this?

To ensure that everyone knows that @CityofVancouver & @VSB39 & @bcedplan need to START planning together & plan better.
L'Ecole Bilinque is just a 10 min walk away. It's a French Immersion School that has 40 Kindergarten spots which are hard to get - kids from any part of Vancouver enter a draw (better term than "lottery") to get them. Consider chances low.
Read 13 tweets
Simon Lord says easy to hide a real estate asset, bury in trusts, shell companies, "if you are clever enough with special purpose vehicles you can reduce the risk significantly" ... BC real estate lawyer is suggesting I think, as homes cost so much, aren't they risk to launder?
However, as this story showed, RCMP were surprised Vancouver narcos sometimes didn't even bother hiding ownership. They were brazen in #vanre And RCMP wasn't investigating it globalnews.ca/news/4658157/f…
BC real estate lawyer is laying the ground work, that it could be difficult for realtors to ID dirty money, as it may have been well hidden before they get to transact it.
Read 3 tweets
Back at the #cullencommission today. Beginning where we left off with banks. Prof. Stephen Schneider says B.C. bank branches have been particularly vulnerable to money laundering related to the illegal pot trade and capital flight from China.
cbc.ca/news/canada/br…
Livestream is here if you want to follow along: cullencommission.ca/webcast-live/
Globe and Mail getting lots of props this morning for their reporting.

Schneider is talking about the Vancouver model, and how drug money was used to fund private mortgages, helping fuel the out-of-control real estate market.
Read 28 tweets
Took look at the math on the already infamous TD Economics prediction saying the GTA market would end the year ⬆️7.8% on prices vs. 2019 (and ⬇️23% on transactions). Report released before April finished so here's look with March results. Saying $880K avg price rest of year. /1 Image
Average price for April turned out to be only $821,392, which was just over the 2019 average of $819,322. But it was a 7.8% drop from Jan-Feb avg, where TD had prices falling only 1.2% for rest of year (but could, in fairness come back up). /2 Image
Here's revised chart on what need to hit for TD prediction to be correct: $884K.
Also, note TD implies total MLS re-sale transactions to be down $12.2 billion in the GTA to $59.7B, a drop of 17%. /3 Image
Read 4 tweets
RBC Economics with another new report out today (they've upped the frequency). Bullets from their summary:
▪️ expect activity to slow to a crawl in most markets across the country in April and as long as social distancing and lock-down measures are in place
/1
▪️ unclear how long home prices will hold up
▪️ expect property values to come under increasing downward pressure the longer restrictions persist and the deeper the recession gets
▪️ Super thin activity also makes the market prone to erratic price moves.〰️
/2
TRREB had predicted 97,000 transactions for 2020. Were tracking well the first 2.5 months. Now they're saying they're going to issue a revised forecast when they get some more info. /3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Update: All @CityofVancouver boards and commissions suspended until further notice. No council-appointed rezoning open houses, advisory meetings or workshops until further notice. #vanpoli #coronavirus
MORE: All Park Board permits for special events cancelled until May 30. No more bookings for memorial services at Mountain View Cemetery hall; burials and internments continue. #vanpoli #coronavirus
MORE: Public access to @CityofVancouver Services Centre, Revenue Services, Engineering Services at Crossroads by appointment only. Videoconferencing and more phone and email services to come. #vanpoli #coronavirus
Read 4 tweets
I think the biggest regret when we look back at this era of city building will be all the knock-on effects of forcing condos onto main streets.
Health and air quality for sure, but mostly forcing new homebuyers to compete for the same real estate as established businesses sucks for both of them
So condos displace locally loved businesses because it's the only place we allow them to be built. The condos are expensive for the same reason. So locals all hate condos and elect anti condo politicians
Read 18 tweets
My unpopular take on Canada’s massive immigration.

Raising immigration targets as much as Canada has, all at once, doesn’t solve the problem people think it does.

It actually compounds existing issues. Here’s a progressive’s rant on high immigration.

<thread> ⤵️

#VanRe #ToRe
An aging population is one of Canada’s biggest issues.

As Canada ages, we have fewer people of prime earning age, more dependents, and a dwindling tax base to support dependents.

Basically, we need more young people to pay our bills. So we import them to cover the loss.
Sure, they’ll create their own dependents, but immigrants tend to have more kids in general. Right?

That was a good assumption for Canada in the 1980s, but not today. Increasingly, immigrants find Canada super expensive - who can afford a bunch of kids?
Read 11 tweets
Couple of charts from latest RBC Housing Market Commentary, this one titled "Are Toronto home prices sky-bound again?"
First, GTA inventory at second lowest Jan level in this 14 year look. Second, rolling 12 month avg trending down. /1 Image
Vancouver almost out of negative YoY HPI ditch. Toronto's has crept up to almost 10% on the composite benchmark. On the chart 10% doesn't look as high as it should, just due to peaks of >30% for Toronto and #VanRE back in 2016 and 2017. /2 Image
Some strong words: "It’s looking more and more like early-2016 all over again for the Toronto housing market. This is not a good sign. Those were the days when things started to heat up uncomfortably, propelling property values sky-high in the ensuing year." /3
Read 4 tweets
Holborn Group has been working on their Hudson's Bay parkade redevelopment for some time. Scale of what they're imagining is breathtaking: I know "world class" is thrown around a lot; this is truly global scale #Vancouver #vanpoli #vanre #vancre 1/7 THREAD
dailyhive.com/vancouver/huds…
This concept by Beijing-based MAD Architects for downtown's Bay parkade would be Metro #Vancouver's tallest tower, close to 900 ft. Note: this concept made in 2016 is likely outdated, but it's refreshing to know this was actually contemplated. #vanpoli #vanre #vancre 2/7
This concept has an incredible range of uses:
- hotel
- residential
- indoor & outdoor shopping mall, including department store
- roof garden & pool
- observation deck

Scope/uses worthy of central location & next to two SkyTrain stations.

3/7 #Vancouver #vanre #vancre #vanpoli
Read 7 tweets
Happening now: students parroting the message of ex-Chrétien chief of staff Eddie Goldenberg await Meng Wanzhou’s arrival at the Law Courts. Are they paid to be here? #cdnpoli #bcpoli #humanrights
Meanwhile, on the Nelson Street side of the Law Courts, a protest against China’s mass-jailing of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang. #cdnpoli #bcpoli #HumanRights
Meanwhile, Uyghur protesters against China’s jailing of millions of Muslims in Xinjiang were outside Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou’s Shaughnessy mansion this morning. (Via @inamitchellfilm) #HumanRights #cdnpoli #uspoli #vanRE
Read 24 tweets
RBC's monthly Focus on Housing report is out now. Remember all of those "Toronto is just following Vancouver by 6 (or whatever) months" theorists? Well either they were wrong, or Toronto's been doing it wrong for about a year now. #VanRE #TorRE /1 Image
And since 2000 Toronto has only had one buyer's market period, while Vancouver has had 3. They're just different markets with their own unique forces. (Note "new listings" are a flawed stat with TREB so SNLR isn't my favourite stat, but point is the same.) /2 ImageImage
Their 2019 summary on Vancouver and Toronto:
- increasing evidence buyers have adjusted to earlier policy changes
- modest declines in mortgage rates also helped spur demand
- biggest issue now is low inventories /3
Read 3 tweets
Highlights from RBC's Housing Trends and Affordability report for December 2019. Toronto condo apts:
🏆highest Q/Q price change (tied w/ St. John's)
🏆highest Y/Y ⬆️in affordability measure (which is really unaffordability)
🏆highest in measure vs. long-term average (11.9 pts) /1 Image
Those titles aren't anything to be too enthused about. Here's how the measure has been trending. Can see those condo apts still climbing (blue line). Detached (top line) has steadied. Thick is aggregate, dotted is long term avg. /2 Image
Here's Toronto summary. Highlights condo apts, and not much good news for those looking to get into market for the first time in 2020. /3 Image
Read 6 tweets
RBC's Monthly Housing Update for December was just released. Here are a few Toronto related (really GTA) things. SUPPLY was mentioned a lot in the report (being low). That contributed to HPI being highest YoY increase since 2017 when was coming down off a high. #TorRE /1 Image
Toronto in "Seller's Market" territory in Sales to New Listings Ratio (40-60% considered "Balanced"), just ahead of nat'l average. Montreal "hottest" in this stat. This stat is a bit garbage in Toronto because TREB's count of new listings is inflated (so ratio underinflated). /2 Image
Mentions "November brought further evidence that supply—more specifically, the lack thereof—is becoming the main housing story in Canada." Cites CREA showing national MOI lowest in more than 12 years. /3
Read 4 tweets
1. I’m on hols but I’m seeing a lot of talk here about racism and #VanRe. I’ll keep it brief. Of course, it makes zero difference whether the frn $ buying YVR homes is Chinese, American or from outer space /2
2. To suggest otherwise is racist, IMO. But to understand the causes of the inflows, and maybe mitigate them, it is VITAL to understand that these flows overwhelmingly come from greater China.
3. BC confirmed this with first set of frn buyer stats in mid-2016. 90% were mainland Chinese. And for comparison: zero were Americans
Read 10 tweets
I’ve been asked for my perspective on this Joanna Chiu op-ed on a few occasions now, so I’ll share my own thread here with some thoughts. Firstly, the racism in #vanre discussions is real and I encounter it regularly on social media and to some extent day-to-day.
The problem is hugely complex and to distill it down to “zoning” is akin to trying to watch a 3D IMAX movie on an an old black and white cathode ray tube TV. Zoning alone isn’t the problem (and in fact, is also part of the solution) 2/
In Vancouver, what sets it apart, and what has been documented time and again by journalists like
@ianjamesyoung70 @KathyTGlobe @Goldiein604
and others is that a massive, difficult to measure flow of global wealth finds itself into the #vanre market 3/
Read 33 tweets
RBC just released its Focus On Canadian Housing with a look at October. As with my "first-look" late last night they found the standout item to be the drop in new listings. Here are a few of the RBC charts. SNLR at 2 and half year high of 66%. /1 Image
Seasonally adjusted sales are out of the lows they were at in most of 2017 and through 2018. /2 Image
Here's a chart were some people were all "Toronto is just following Vancouver by x months." Doesn't look that so much now, eh? Toronto's bounceback has been slower and steadier. #VanRE #TorRE /3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Some thoughts on that @UBS bubble index report that came out the other day - where Toronto was the 2nd highest city (biggest risk) in the 🌎. Or at least the 24 selective cities covered. (Chart via @AxiosVisuals ) /1 Image
First of all, something I haven't seen reported was that Toronto's risk number has actually fallen the last couple of years from 2.12 > 1.95 > 1.86. /2 Image
Toronto's ranking was #1 in 2017 and #3 in 2018 (behind Hong Kong and Munich). Big reason Toronto has climbed in the rankings is that other top cities have reset. Graphic relates to 2016 rankings. Could still be some air to be let out of Toronto's prices. /3 Image
Read 6 tweets

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