We have another large #ArabianStorm which was not anticipated by the global weather models. And like those before it, it is fueled by the #WestAfricaMonsoon and a #WestAfricaWaterPlume. This time across the Red Sea in the vicinity of #Makkah.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
This animation shows the current state of a weather event that has been a few days in coming. #ArabianStorms
@Arab_Storms
The origin of this event is very similar to that which caused several days of extremely severe thunderstorms in #Oman earlier in the month. This animation is from May 18th shortly after it first appeared in the @zoom_earth satellite imagery.
Current precipitable water model observations for the #MiddleEast. The flow of water vapor from central Africa into northern #SaudiArabia is continuing.
10 Day Rainfall forecasts for 20 May follow:
First North Africa where a spectacular #DesertRain Western Sahara rain event is forecast.
3rd Middle East 10-Day
4th #MiddleEast long range 16 and 12 day forecasts.
5th #Jordan #Israel #palestine
It’s clear from the latest forecasts that the @NOAA GFS and @ECMWF models are still struggling to model the significantly more complex Middle East weather situation & its African Monsoon origins. Neither model is showing any Levant and Northern #ArabianPeninsula rainfall.
... #ThreadBreakFix...
You can watch the latest unusual #ArabianStorms causing event live at this link. zoom.earth/#view=26.25,39… on zoom_earth
None of this is a criticism of the leading GFS and ECMWF global models. They remain preeminent among supercomputer model. Their forecasts for Cyclone #Tauktae were spot on. Both models are now predicting a tropical storm in the Bay of Bengal.
MLSP forecasts showing a tropical storm making landfall near Calcutta mid next week.
Long range 10, 12 and 16 day rainfall forecasts for the Indian sub-continent and it’s attendant increasingly active adjacent seas, #ArabianSea #BayOfBengal
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