Thread by @rdv_analytics

💸 Is hyperinflation a reality? How to protect yourself?

Money may well depreciate at times. This has already happened before, even in developed countries. #Inflation in developed world is accelerating, and the authorities are carried away by populism.

• In the #US, inflation has already accelerated to 6.2%
• In #Germany, it reached a 28-year high of 4.5%.

Authorities of developed countries put above #inflation problems of #SocialJustice in labor market (employment in all minority groups is important) and #climate warming.

Populist views are capturing the minds of monetary authorities, which only fuels #inflation. This was the case in the #USA in the 1970s: prices almost tripled.
And sometimes it was much worse: in Israel in the 1980s, prices for goods jumped ~10,000 times.

Look at this terrifying picture: in #Germany in the 1920s, prices rose millions of times. Cash, deposits, #bonds were essentially zeroed out.

The world is now on the verge of a new possible inflationary round.

🇷🇺 RDV's anti-inflationary portfolio consists of companies that are competitive and cheap both in #Russia and world:

• Norilsk Nickel - #metals: #platinum, #palladium, #copper, #nickel
• #PhosAgro - #fertilizers
• #Lukoil - #oil
• #Rosneft - oil
$GMKN $PHOR $ROSN $LKOH #OOTT

RDV's anti-inflationary portfolio. How the list of companies is defined:
• Historically, commodities are best defenders against #inflation: #oil, #food, #fertilizers, #metals.
• There are many raw material companies in #Russia, and many of them are best in the world.

• Emphasis on companies that mainly #export, that is, will not fall under the domestic Russian price control.
• Companies with high margins will painlessly tolerate the rise in prices for raw materials required for production.

What can we do with you to protect ourselves from inflation? Buy producers of #oil, #fertilizers and #metals. Historically, their stocks have outpaced inflation and were above or at the level of #inflation.

🛢 Russian oilers are best option to participate in rise in oil prices. The leaders of RDV in sector are #Rosneft and #Lukoil.

1️⃣ High efficiency. $RNFTF and $LUKOY spend $3–3.5 per barrel on #hydrocarbon production vs $10–11 per barrel for #ExxonMobil $XOM and #Chevron $CVX.

2️⃣ High divyield. By end of 2021, Russian #oil companies will provide an average 8-12% of #dividend yields, while global peers will provide 3-4%

3️⃣ Growth potential. Average EV/EBITDA multiple for 2022 for Russian #oil companies is 4x, and for global peers - 6x
$LKOD $LKOH $ROSN