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We provide top-class analysis on equities, fixed income and commodities from Russia, CIS & EM.
Mar 23, 2022 β€’ 5 tweets β€’ 3 min read
πŸ”₯ What does transition to sale of #gas for rubles mean? #ONGT

β€’ #Russia will continue to receive foreign exchange earnings: Europeans will buy rubles for euros, since they do not have their own rubles.
β€’ State is losing interest in a weak ruble. Weak ruble was beneficial to #Russia, since budget received revenues in foreign currency, but spent rubles.

β€’ Foreigners need to hedge risk of ruble appreciation. They will be forced to keep ruble balances or sell EURRUB futures.
Mar 23, 2022 β€’ 10 tweets β€’ 8 min read
⚑️ How much could Chevron stock tumble?

A storm in Black sea stopped all $CVX oil exports from #Kazakhstan.

It turns out that 30% of Chevron oil production was heavily reliant on Russian #oil transportation system, which makes $CVX expose to russian risks.

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ CPC transports oil from northwestern part of #Kazakhstan to Novorossiysk for further transportation by sea.
During 2021, CPC transported an average of 1.3 mn barrels of crude #oil per day, composed of 1.1 mn barrels per day from Kazakhstan (~75% of Kazakhstan's exports).
Feb 9, 2022 β€’ 4 tweets β€’ 5 min read
πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί To what extent does #Europe depend on Russian raw materials?

Policymakers fear the bloc is less prepared than Moscow. EU anti-Russian sanctions - shot yourself in the knee.
ft.com/content/26d7e3… β€’ about 40% of natural #gas imports;
β€’ almost a third of crude #oil imports.

Eurozone gas inventories are below historical levels and prices have risen sharply in recent months, giving #Russia additional leverage over #Europe.

Feb 9, 2022 β€’ 6 tweets β€’ 5 min read
β‚Ώ The ban is canceled: new concept of #cryptocurrency regulation in #Russia.

Which Russian companies have already prepared?

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ For Russian investors, #cryptocurrencies have become important asset class – there are twice as many funds in crypto accounts as in brokerage accounts. Ban could have a negative impact on credibility of Central Bank and the authorities in general.
Feb 8, 2022 β€’ 6 tweets β€’ 6 min read
πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡«πŸ‡· Main from press conference following the talks between the presidents of #Russia and #France


β€’ They don't do anything themselves, but they demand some kind of performance from us. Let's not play like that - on the situation around #NATO and #Ukraine.
1/6 Image β€’ A number of #Macron's ideas, which are still too early to talk about, are quite possible to form the basis for further steps in #Ukraine.

β€’ If you like it or not, be patient, my beauty, you must comply - on #Kiev's attitude to #Minsk agreements.
Jan 19, 2022 β€’ 6 tweets β€’ 7 min read
❓ How will the confrontation between Russia and the West develop further?

Military operations, prolongation of the conflict, the split of Ukraine. Three opinions from RDV sources.

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China and Russia will unite against #USA. #Putin travels to #Beijing on February 4. #Russia is fighting, #China is paying. China benefits because it weakens #UnatedStates and diverts its attention from itself.
Jan 19, 2022 β€’ 4 tweets β€’ 5 min read
Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Ryabkov speaks at the Valdai discussion club:

β€’ European security situation is critical.
β€’ #USA and #NATO are trying to isolate convenient points from #Russia's proposals for security guarantees.
β€’ Security talks were helpful. β€’ Issue of security guarantees is urgent. We expect to receive an answer soon.
β€’ #Russia doesn't intend to change disposition of its military forces near #Ukraine.
β€’ We look forward to continuing the dialogue with #USA.
β€’ #Sanctions don't work and won't lead to policy change.
Jan 19, 2022 β€’ 4 tweets β€’ 2 min read
❓❗️ How long will the Russian market fall?

πŸ”₯ Russian physicists don't have enough money to buy out the sales of foreigners. Therefore, fall may continue, the source of the RDV believes.

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Relations between #Russia and the West are now at the bottom since the Caribbean crisis. And at such a moment, it is difficult for a Western fund manager to explain to his investors why he continues to hold $SBER, $TCSG, or something else from Russia. $RTSI

Think πŸ‘‡
Jan 17, 2022 β€’ 4 tweets β€’ 3 min read
πŸ”₯ Recognition of #atom as #ESG investment can increase capitalization of $KAP by 6 times, RDV sources calculated.

#Uranium producers can follow path of raw material suppliers for GreenTech: World has begun to recognize #nuclear as green.

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ After start of development of global environmental agenda, not only GreenTech companies, but also suppliers of raw materials for them, have risen in price. Development of #EV, #solarpanels, windmills and batteries required a large amount of raw materials.
Dec 14, 2021 β€’ 5 tweets β€’ 4 min read
On sidelines and in society, they are discussing that a war may start in #Ukraine, and the #Fed will raise rates ahead of time. How will this end for the markets?

Spoiler alert: the Russian market could be halved. #MOEX

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ Judging by experience of falls of past years, Russian market may fall by another 30% -50% from current levels.

β€’ 2008 #RTS index fell by 80%
β€’ 2014 - by 50%
β€’ 2020 - by 50%

Market has corrected by 22% from the local maximum - potential for a fall by 30% remains.
Dec 9, 2021 β€’ 4 tweets β€’ 5 min read
Russian #SWIFT: how Russia prepared for the threat of disconnection from the global financial system. #sanction

The ideas of import substitution in #Russia began to sound back in 2014. And they also touched upon the financial system.

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ Due to threat of financial #isolation of #Russia in 2014, the Bank of Russia Financial Messaging System (SPFS) was created.

SPFS is an alternative channel for transmitting electronic messages about financial transactions both domestically and abroad.
Dec 8, 2021 β€’ 7 tweets β€’ 9 min read
Olaf Scholz is elected new chancellor of #Germany. How can quality of relations between Germany and #Russia change?

Roads lead to... St. Petersburg!
#Scholz: "#Hamburg and #StPetersburg are twin cities and twin ports".

Scholz's "Petersburg connections" and the SPD.
Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ Image #SPD in #Hamburg has strong ties with #Russia and, in particular, with #StPetersburg. In 2012, Henning Voscherau became chairman of BoD of South Stream Transport AG, #Gazprom's project to build the South Stream gas pipeline bypassing #Ukraine, which was never implemented. #ONGT Image
Nov 26, 2021 β€’ 6 tweets β€’ 7 min read
πŸ— Real estate boom will continue, capitalization of developers will grow, according to RDV sources.

Need for families in #Russia for real estate is so much higher than supply of #developers that prices for square meters will inexorably rise.

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ The volume of the #RealEstate market in 2020 amounted to more than 17 trillion rubles - this is the second consumer market in #Russia.
Nov 25, 2021 β€’ 6 tweets β€’ 5 min read
#Gazprom, the Russian #gas giant, could make record profits and generate 15% dividend yield over current price. #ONGT $GAZP $OGZD $OGZPY

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ On Monday, $GAZP will publish 3Q financials, which will be highest in company's history.
Record profit = record dividend:
RUB 50 - dividend per share at the end of 2021, 15% per annum (RDV calculations).
RUB 110 - amount of #dividends for 2 years - 33% of current value of shares.
Nov 24, 2021 β€’ 8 tweets β€’ 7 min read
#Segezha is largest Russian representative of #timber industry. Company benefits from world's drive to move away from deforestation. Foreign politicians have pledged to end deforestation by 2030.
bbc.com/news/science-e… All over the world, area of ​​forests is decreasing, while in #Russia it is growing.
#Brazil, as one of largest timber producer, has pledged to end illegal logging, which will require aggressive reductions in forest harvesting.
Nov 10, 2021 β€’ 10 tweets β€’ 12 min read
πŸ’Έ Is hyperinflation a reality? How to protect yourself?

Money may well depreciate at times. This has already happened before, even in developed countries. #Inflation in developed world is accelerating, and the authorities are carried away by populism. Image β€’ In the #US, inflation has already accelerated to 6.2%
β€’ In #Germany, it reached a 28-year high of 4.5%.

Authorities of developed countries put above #inflation problems of #SocialJustice in labor market (employment in all minority groups is important) and #climate warming. Image