Thread by @WillCarpTexas

While I continue to hope for regime change in #Russia, I worry about what may come in the weeks ahead absent more Western military intervention. If it comes down to some form of a settlement, a #thread of #maps to contemplate in the days ahead / 1

First, #geopolitics of Russia. Southern and Eastern border protected by mountains. Ural mtns separate Moscow from inner lands. Hard to navigate Northern seas in the Artic. Historically, least protected on Western or S. Western border (Alexander the Great, Napoleon, Nazis) / 2

In thinking about historical Russian view of security on Western borders, consider a “line” from St. Petersburg to Rostov-on-Don during 4 periods: (1) the Russian empire in 1914 /3

(2) The farthest German advance in 1942 (from the actual Nazis in WWII...) /4

(3) #ColdWar, in which the USSR spanned what today comprises 15 distinct nations, and had the Warsaw Pact states as a large buffer in the West. Recall that Putin called the collapse of the #USSR “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century” / 5

(4) Present day Russia, where this “line” cuts through Eastern Ukraine and #NATO expansion has moved eastward since 1991 / 6

Second, in addition to perceived geopolitical threats or Putin merely hating #democracy on the border (@anneapplebaum), what else does Putin stand to gain if he takes control of the country? Ukraine has tremendous economic potential. Some stats & maps to highlight regions / 7

There is some level of #mineralresources throughout the country, with a higher concentration in the South and Eastern regions / 8

#agriculture / 9

In terms of agriculture, crops such as corn are more prevalent in northern half of the country, while wheat & barley more prevalent in southern half / 10

Also, industrial might with #energy assets /11

As for the #nuclear power capacity (#3 in Europe, #8 in World), there are 2 operable plants in the South and 2 in the N. West / 12

And of course, there are #gaspipelines running through Ukraine as well / 13

If #Putin did control the entire country, who would buy these goods you ask? I can think of one potential customer. See map of #BeltandRoadInitiative / 14

Third, as highlighted by @TheStudyofWar, the brave Ukrainian resistance and poor Russian military execution so far has limited Russian advance vs. expectations. Should the conflict be drawn out for a longer period, it appears Russians will face a fierce ongoing resistance / 15

Fourth, #Ukrainians do not want do be part of #Russia. But, to get a better sense of the people dynamics, consider 3 #maps: (1) major population centers / 16

(2) Russian speaking populations, which happen to overlap to a degree with mineral resources / 17

(3) Which also correlates to the electoral support for a previous Russian puppet, #ViktorYanukovich, who was ousted in the 2014 Revolution of Dignity / 18

Finally, what are illustrative paths forward? 3 sample maps to consider (by no means comprehensive!): (1) #Russia absorbs the whole of #Ukraine (and #Moldova, #Belarus, too) 😢/ 19

(2) Division of the country, for example East/West of the #Dnieper River 😢 / 20

(3) And of course, the best option a #FreeUkraine! Not to dismiss the nuclear threat, but absent regime change, the outcome of this may come down the degree that West will provide more overt support. What is the value to a free, sovereign, and thriving Ukraine? 😃 #EU #NATO / 21

I just started using Twitter actively in recent weeks #StopPutin #FreeUkriane. Give me a follow, RT, or ♥️ @PeterCorless @RealCynicalFox @int_osic @sentdefender @The_IntelHub @pwnallthethings @malasqalani @marcorubio @Calthalas @Global_Mil_Info @RadioFreeTom / END