Thread by @quakes99

1/19) #Uranium - a Tutorial👨‍🏫 walking U thru the #Nuclear fuel cycle, what it is, the stages & issues involved, so U can understand the term that has every Uranium investor smacking their lips today: Overfeeding!😋 Here's a thread that I hope gives U some key insights.🌞⚛️⛏️🧵👇2

2) #Uranium is a very different fuel than #coal & #gas that are burned "as is" in #electricity power plants.🏭⚡️ #Nuclear reactor fuel needs to be specially processed & then loaded into fuel rods that are then loaded into reactors to generate #CarbonFree electricity.🌞⚛️⚡️👇3

3) Mined #Uranium⛏️ is processed into drums of Yellow Cake #U3O8🛢️ that in the west are shipped🚢🚛 to plants in Canada, US & France for "Conversion" into a new form called #UF6 which is then shipped in cylinders🚛 to plants in US & Europe for "Enrichment" into reactor fuel.⚛️👇4

4) Enriched #Uranium (EUP) is then shipped🚛 to a fuel fabrication plant🏭 where it is processed into solid "Pellets" that are loaded into reactor fuel rods bundled into "fuel assemblies" ready to be shipped🚛 to #Nuclear power plants for loading into reactors⚛️⚡️🌞🧵👇5

5) These #Uranium stages of processing are together called the "#Nuclear Fuel Cycle".⚛️ Operators of reactors have to sign contracts🧾 with companies providing Mining, Conversion, Enrichment, Fuel Fabrication, and as well must arrange shipments between each facility. 🌎🚢🚛🚂👇6

6) With #Uranium having to be shipped to plants in various locations worldwide for each of the #Nuclear fuel cycle stages, as fuel buyers compete for contracts to get their reactor fuel processed, it can take 2+ years to go from mined #U3O8⛏️ to delivered fuel assemblies.⚛️🦥👇7

7) So #Nuclear reactor fuel must be ordered/contracted at least 2 years before it is scheduled for loading into reactors.😯 That lead time can be cut in half✂️ if reactor operators buy already converted #UF6 held by a supplier, bypassing #Uranium #mining & conversion stages.🐎👇8

8) Which brings us to "underfeeding."🍼 Without getting too technical👶 after Fukushima in 2011, demand for enriched #Uranium fell⤵️ but for technical reasons enrichment devices have to be kept spinning at full throttle.🌀 Enrichers switched gears⚙️ to operate differently🧵👇9

9) Enrichers can spin the #UF6 feed for longer periods to achieve the desired #Uranium enrichment % while using less UF6.😯 A contract might call for 6 x UF6 cylinders, but enricher would only use 5 then sell the extra UF6 back into the market.💰 That is "underfeeding"🍼🧵👇10

10) Underfeeding led to an excess of #UF6 in the market, known as "secondary supply", that #Nuclear utilities could buy instead of signing contracts for Conversion.🧾✖️ Demand & prices for Conversion & mined #U3O8 plummeted.⤵️ Honeywell shut down only US Conversion plant!🇺🇸😯👇11

11) Demand for mined #U3O8 plummeted⤵️⛏️ due to oversupply, many mines were idled to cut supply✂️ & mine development projects delayed or cancelled.✖️ Investment in exploration & development fell off a cliff💰↘️ as did #Uranium prices😟.. but that's all changed now!😃⚛️🏗️⤴️🐂👇12

12) Today #Nuclear power capacity & #Uranium demand is greater now than it was before Fukushima.⚛️⤴️🤠🐂 Demand is surging in a global decarbonization drive to fight #ClimateChange & achieve #NetZero🌞in midst of an #EnergyCrisis.⚡️ A 'Nuclear Renaissance' is now underway.🏗️👇13

13) Even before #Russia invaded #Ukraine to create geopolitical chaos🪖💣 #Nuclear fuel demand was circa 200 Million lbs of #Uranium this year, but mined supply at only 135 Million lbs.🤯 'Underfeeding' by enrichers was providing about 20M lbs/year to reduce that deficit.🍼👇14

14) #Russia has been supplying 39% of global enriched #Uranium, 27% of Conversion & 14% of mined U supply.⚛️⛏️ #Nuclear utilities in US & Europe are now pivoting away from Russian supply🇷🇺⛏️⛔️ with shipping also disrupted🚢🚛🚂impacting ~20% of US & #EU #Nuclear fuel supply✂️👇15

15) Demand for Western enriched #Uranium has surged⤴️⚛️ spiking prices for Enrichment(SWU) like never seen before⏫as #Nuclear utilities scramble to find alternative supply.🛒 There's not enough capacity in US & Europe to meet demand so enrichers are switching gears again⚙️🏎️👇16

16) Western 'underfeeding' is over✖️ as enrichers are switching to 'overfeeding'🍼🍼 so they can produce enriched #Uranium at a faster pace.🏇 By feeding extra UF6 they can shorten enrichment time to try to keep up with demand, but must buy the extra #UF6 feed in the market🛒👇17

17) But #Nuclear fuel consultants are saying that supply of #UF6 is running out.🏜️ More Conversion of mined #U3O8 is needed ASAP in order to produce more #UF6.⏫ Cost of Conversion has risen to an all-time high.🌋 Luckily, Honeywell is restarting their US conversion plant🏭🇺🇸👇18

18) As Conversion ramps back up,⤴️ #Nuclear utilities must purchase more mined #U3O8🛒⛏️ to be converted to #UF6🏭 so enrichers can "overfeed"🍼🍼 to produce more enriched #Uranium to replace lost Russian supply.🇷🇺⛔️ This is the "knock-on effect" that has yet to hit #U3O8🌊⛏️👇19

19) 'Underfeeding' created 'Secondary Supply' which now flips to 'Secondary Demand'🙃 due to 'overfeeding'🍼🍼 which will drive up #Uranium demand,⏫ deepen the massive supply deficit⏬ & send #U3O8 prices & U #mining #stocks skyward🚀 in the months & years ahead.🤠🐂 Got it?😉