Thread by @CrisisGroup

2022 was a year of horrible bloodshed for many countries.

For 2023, we compiled a list of 10 conflicts to watch – in partnership with @ForeignPolicy.

🧵 [1/12]
crisisgroup.org/global/10-conf…

1️⃣ #Ukraine 🇺🇦

After nearly a year of fighting, there is no end in sight for the war in Ukraine.

The West should continue its balancing act of backing Kyiv while avoiding a direct clash with Russia and keeping the door open to negotiations.

2️⃣ #NagornoKarabakh 🇦🇲- 🇦🇿

Neither Russian nor Western-sponsored talks have brought the sides closer to a sustainable agreement and clashes have continued.

The failure of talks could well result in renewed war.

3️⃣ #Iran 🇮🇷

Protests have rocked Iran for months and the regime has killed hundreds with its brutal response.

Meanwhile, another crisis looms, with talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal in a deep freeze.

4️⃣ #Yemen 🇾🇪

The war in Yemen is in uncomfortable limbo after a truce between the Huthi rebels and the internationally recognised government lapsed in October.

There is serious cause for concern as both sides are preparing for renewed fighting.

5️⃣ #Ethiopia 🇪🇹

The war in Tigray has halted with the signing of two agreements. But with key questions unresolved, plenty could go wrong.

Vigilance is needed to stop one of 2022’s deadliest wars from reigniting.

6️⃣ Great Lakes / #DRCongo 🇨🇩

The #M23 rebels have re-emerged to wreak havoc in the eastern DRC.

Kinshasa blames neighbouring #Rwanda.

An East African mission led by #Kenya is trying to restore calm, but if it fails, the DRC could become the centre of a proxy war.

7️⃣ #Sahel 🇧🇫🇲🇱🇳🇪

Governments in #BurkinaFaso, #Mali and #Niger are struggling to contain Islamist insurgencies.

Anti-western sentiment is spreading while a new key regional player, Russia, sows tensions between Sahelian governments and Western capitals.

8️⃣ #Haiti 🇭🇹

Since President Jovenel Moïse was murdered in July 2021, Haiti has been paralysed by political gridlock and rampant gang violence.

Services have collapsed and cholera is spreading.

Haiti needs help and foreign troops may be its last best hope.

9️⃣ #Pakistan 🇵🇰

Pakistan is facing a severe political crisis, as witnessed by sporadic eruptions of violence & an assassination attempt on former PM Imran Khan.

In addition, Pakistan must contend with devastating floods, a struggling economy & resurgent Islamist militancy.

🔟 #Taiwan

The biggest flashpoint between the U.S. and China – Taiwan – looks increasingly unstable.

War is unlikely any time soon.

But the global effects of a Taiwan conflict would dwarf the Ukraine war’s fallout, so any change in risk, however slight, is worth watching.

Read more on each entry, as well as the overview about the state of the world by @EroComfort and @atwoodr.
crisisgroup.org/global/10-conf…