In general, election-related punditry (i) is a few weeks behind the actual data, but once it catches up to the shift in the polls it both (ii) exaggerates swings and (iii) overestimates precision (underestimates uncertainty).
So instead of:
"Over several months, the House has gone from modestly favoring Democrats to more like a toss-up; it's a meaningful-ish change but a wide range of outcomes remain plausible"
We get:
"OMG a BLUE WAVE was ALL BUT ASSURED and now SUDDENLY Democrats are BLOWING IT!"
"Over several months, the House has gone from modestly favoring Democrats to more like a toss-up; it's a meaningful-ish change but a wide range of outcomes remain plausible"
We get:
"OMG a BLUE WAVE was ALL BUT ASSURED and now SUDDENLY Democrats are BLOWING IT!"
You can also find examples of people erring in the other direction and denying that there's been *any* good news for the GOP.
Need to hold these 3 ideas in your head at once:
1. It's gotten a bit better for the GOP
2. It's still pretty good for Dems
3. Uncertainty is very high
Need to hold these 3 ideas in your head at once:
1. It's gotten a bit better for the GOP
2. It's still pretty good for Dems
3. Uncertainty is very high
