1. With our nation's sloppy ignorance based on bumper stickers, here is a pre-analysis of North Korea meeting. Even if Kim says "I will denuclearize" it is meaningless. There has been virtually no preparation for this meeting. Normally, a framework is negotiated by underlings...
2...and only when that agreement exists do the nation's leaders come in. This can take years. Iran deal, negotiated by many counties, took two years. Denuclearization is not like deciding to throw out a pair of shoes. But, Kim has undoubtedly been fed info about Trump's aching...
3...and pathetic need for praise. Hell, I said on a cable news show years ago that all Kim had to do was work to make Trump look good or praise him, and Trump would be giving Kim guided tours of our nuclear facilities. Saying "I will denuclearize" involves nothing. Years of....
4....negotiations will follow - years in which North Korea can bask in the recognition it has so achingly desired from the United States, surrendering our biggest strategic chip for nothing at all (Same as Trump did in moving our Israel embassy to Jerusalem). After, Kim will...
5...bask on the global stage, knowing full well negotiations will lead into the 2020 elections. Trump will, undoubtedly, continue to pump NK "deal" as a big accomplishment. Kim will know, another US president will return to acting based on knowledge, not impulse or narcissism...
6....and the international carnival show of "denuclearization" will end. Knowing the collapse of this fake show will terrify Trump pre-2020, Kim will be in the position to make insane demands of the US, which Trump will either have to accept or admit that he was a fool...
7...so for Kim, worst case scenario in declaring "I will denuclearize" is this: He gains validation of his government by the heighest reaches of the American government, he gets to make demands of the US for two years, he can slow-roll the talks, walk away, and lose nothing...
8...the reason underlings do the original negotiation - in private - under the leadership of competent presidents is exactly this: To keep chips on the table, to find out if the other side is bluffing, and see if an agreement is even possible. Trump is the worst dealmaker...
9...in history. He has surrendered everything to Kim before the meeting even takes place. Kim has given up nothing - yes he has SAID he is giving up elements of his nuclear program, like testing, but those were already ending. The nuke program is fully tested. So Kim wins....
10...an enormous amount because of Trump's incompetence and gives up nothing. And for the next few years, he can see how much he can wheedle out of Trump - no doubt, he will say kind words about Trump and seek the end of sanctions. And by now, I have no reason to doubt that....
11...Trump will be stupid enough to drop the last card in our deck, to cave on the sanctions if Kim praises him and asks him to, even though no deal is in place. No one pays for food they are getting for free. Kim already got the most important things he wants - a meeting with...
12...an American president (ALL of the other American presidents have been smart enough to understand that meeting with him and his father before him was the main thing they wanted, and having a meeting with no prelim agreement was throwing away a card.) He might get more.....
13...and in the end, he can say "Meh, we can't reach an agreement" and then walk away from the table carrying all of the chips Trump handed to him for no reason at all. Kim cannot lose. We are highly unlikely to win - and most likely will set back any possible denuclearization...
14...of the Korean peninsula by decades. But Trump will praise himself, Fox will praise him, his supporters who understand nothing about NK will praise him, and in the end, it is highly likely nothing will happen. Kim doesnt have to give up anything. He will already have won.
