Thread by @atroyn

here is what I am scared of

I am scared that US economic collapse is a historical inevitability due to structural weaknesses in almost every aspect of society, and with it will go the best chance for genuinely new human capabilities for at least a century

new technologies are extremely capital intensive. robots are fucking _hard_ you guys. they could make life so much better for so many people, they are the longest possible economic lever that has ever existed.

but let me tell you, the first everyday deployments of robots will be subsidized by wealthy people

and when wealth disparity, as one of many factors, causes the entire thing to fucking implode, nobody is going to work on robots, they will be too busy trying to stay alive

the opportunity cost of socio-economic collapse is insane

decades of underdeveloped human capital, uncoordinated economic flailings

you think spaceX is going to mars? spaceX won't exist. there won't be a USAF to give it contracts.

historically, here is what you will get, you get a 20 year loss in male life expectancy and shitty war in Appalachia instead of robot factories

you get violence as the daily norm instead of inspiration for the next generation

you don't get a cultural resurgence and a return to tradition, you get cultural nihilism

you get a population that will do anything for safety and order, bear any injustice, instead of one that stands for ideals

this has _already happened_ in many places, it's not hyperbole

all of your dreams of alternative socio-economic systems, of your NrX / ancap / agorist exit will be lost to just wanting to survive

you'll get your balkanization, but you'll also get The Balkans

I won't examine the causes just now, they are many and varied and any analysis I care to do will come off as signalling in some political dimension even if I'm right

but the consequences are far worse than you can imagine unless you've lived through it.

you can already see this reflected in who's going to be using robotaxis in the near future; it's the people who can afford to Uber, which are an increasingly small fraction of the population

as more people become more marginal (i.e. the people driving uber), the market shrinks

who will invest into a shrinking market? who's going to invest into upgrading the factories and the logistics chains and the warehouses when the goods manufactured, shipped, and stored, cannot be bought by anyone?

the industrial revolution was huge because it simultaneously raised aggregate consumer demand for manufactured goods through better wages, and was able to supply those manufactured goods at a cheaper price

robots aren't like that

robots require a simultaneous step-change, and will happen first slowly, then very suddenly. the feedback effects happen only at vast scale, not piecemeal

they must be subsidized until they reach the phase change