Times splash has @oliver_wright report that May's Brexit sherpa Robbins does not think EU will offer a bespoke deal between a narrow FTA & Single Market. Perhaps. This suggests chance of no deal rising or of UK exit on unsustainable terms. Quick thread 👇 
2) Last week's EU summit produced no breakthrough. The Commission is playing for time in negotiations. Maltese PM boasted Brexit conclusions done in less than a minute; EU sources in Times say 10 minutes. Either way EU member states are not giving Brexit the focus it requires.
3) EU plan is to push UK into a relationship even closer than Norway’s - in Single Market and a Customs Union. That would be unsustainable in longer-term. Brexit vote itself showed how a relationship with EU that’s not politically sustainable for the UK will unwind.
4) How could UK be bound by all EU rules without seat at table to influence those rules? Could Westminster accept Brussels making rules on financial services or tax after we leave? A Brexit that doesn’t “take back control” of immigration will be seen as a failure by electorate
5) But Theresa May faces a difficult challenge: hung parliament; divided Westminster; polarised Cabinet; member states often uninterested in Brexit; and intransigent European Commission.
6) European Governments should consider the risks of their current approach. Rather than resolving the question of British relations with EU they may prolong the issue and exacerbate tensions. Some within Elysee recognise this but there’s no sign their policy is shifting.
7) There are few more fundamental questions for Europe than its relations with the second-biggest Continental economy and major military power, which is why the casual attitude of Europe’s leaders towards Brexit is so troubling.
8) To try to unblock the talks, May seems likely to propose something close to Open Europe’s compromise position on Brexit (participate in Single Market for goods; diverge on services; end free movement). We set this plan out here - openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/b…
9) But before it’s even been formally tabled Team Barnier have sought to reject it claiming that the 4 freedoms of the Single Market are indivisible.
10) But there are plenty of examples of partial Single Market relationships as former ECJ judge @FrDe2059 has argued. See the EU’s relationship with Ukraine, or with EFTA states like Norway to indeed Switzerland.
11) But ultimately if the Commission isn’t interested in pragmatic compromise then there’s deadlock. Meanwhile member states oscillate between distraction and what is almost a blithe recklessness towards Brexit.
12) With no clear majority in Parliament for a Single Market Brexit the chances of no deal, or a UK exit on unsustainable terms are rising sharply. It’s time for European capitals to engage seriously on Brexit & find compromise that is fair for both sides
thetimes.co.uk/article/6e5802…
thetimes.co.uk/article/6e5802…
