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Dan Kaminsky @dakami
, 8 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
"People overestimate what can be done in one year and underestimate what can be done in ten."

...assuming a system that can survive wanting to do a thing for ten years. There are other, more agile systems that can only want to do a thing for one year.

Disruption is blind.
If you're reading this, you are probably a multi-decade project. Surprise!
Of course, just because you are a thing, doesn't mean you want to do a thing. That whole fraying social contract everyone is sensing? This.

I won't pretend to understand Chinese culture. But it, and its leaders, do appear to want to do things on the decade scale.

Do we?
Kids are sort of a thing that generally (NOT universally) forces a capability to exist for long term thought. People may not exert it for anything else *but* their kids, but like, it's there.

When I see entire regions not building housing, I see long term thought malfunctioning.
"Where do you think your kids will live?"
"What kids, those kids are someone else's kids"
"What do you think will happen if we do this terrible thing?"
"I dunno...we're always doing terrible things...people are always complaining never ends..."
I have no idea what Chinese culture thinks has terrible long term consequences.

I am very confident they think such consequences are a thing that exists, that they should be aware of them, that they could put long term plans at risk of very real failure.

What's our plan here?

And thus, the hypothesis from some months ago.

What's worse, a bad plan (D) or no plan at all (R)?

Note the lack of consensus.
I'm not sure what's going on, but welcome to watching me try to figure it out in real time.
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