Thread by @AsiwajuOladimej

Lemme quickly respond to some questions that were raised here.
1. If indeed, Fayose messed up like this, why did PDP lost with small margin.

The answer to this will take us back to how/why JKF lost in 2014 & why that outcome still affect him in 2018.

Thread.

https://twitter.com/AsiwajuOladimej/status/1019197326341103616

It is imperative that we first understand the emergence of JKF in Ekiti politics. There were many school of thoughts to this. Some said he was brought in by MOB from Iyin. Some said it was Ojudu Babafemi. Some even said it was Bola Ahmed Tinubu from Lagos.

Well, here is what i can deduced from my own findings. JKF was brought in from UK or US (not sure) through Bola Ahmed Tinubu. However, i learnt that it was MOB and one other politician from Ekiti that went to UK to convince him.

How true is that is left for JKF/MOB to respond to. Thus, JKF is not a grassroot politician. It was evident during his campaign in 2006 that he could barely even speak Ekiti dialect.

We fondly called him "Oloyinbo epere".

Because he had spent most of his life time outside Ekiti/Nigeria especially durinh Abacha's regime, JKF needs to rely on some bigwigs in Ekiti so as to win the 2007 elections. Thus the likes of MOB and Ojudu etc played crucial roles.

Well, some of us still remembered how Obj conducted the 2007 elections which both international and domestic observers referred to as the worst election in the political history of Nigeria. Fayemi was also a victim of that sham election.

Fayemi had to get back his mandate via court of appeal in 2010. However, it is important to state some of the issues that happened while he was shuttling from Tribunal to Court of Appeal.

The emergence of Segun Oni as the then governor was greeted with opposition in Ekiti. In fact, Oni suffered "legitimacy crisis". The people wanted their "messiah" in Fayemi. Oni must go. The battle was even taken to the state House of Assembly where we have 13/13 equation.

13/13 here means, ACN had 13 members and PDP also had 13 members.
It is important to STRESS here that attempts were made by Oni's camp and PDP to force the 13 ACN members decamp to PDP and betray Fayemi.

However, those 13 ACN members remained steadfast to the course of JKF's reclaiming his stolen mandate from Oni. At a point, those members were forced to have meetings in Akure and Lagos. They were scared. They were terrified. Yet remained loyal to the party.

From an insider, i learnt at a point, those 13members were even donating money for JKF so as to pursue his case at the Tribunal/CoA to a logical end. For me, they were heroes. They could have taken Oni's money and betray both JKF and the party.

Don't also forget that some of these members with some bigwigs were the foot soldiers of JKF since he does not even understand the nitty-gritty of Ekiti politics as a first timer. I remembered vividly how these guys worked tirelessly during the re-run.

Fast forward to 2010, the Court of Appeal sitting in Ilorin declares Fayemi the authentic winner of 2007 election in the state.

Boom!!

Jubilations all over the state.

Our "messiah" is here.

Again, i remembered how civil servants declared 3 days fasting and prayers for Fayemi before the judgement in Ilorin.

Olufemiloye, as he was also called was loved. The teachers, artisans, workers, old citizens, students, youth etc loved him.

In fact, there were rumours that Fayemi is a friend to Barrack Obama, thus we named him "Ore Obama".

At a point, we felt immediately after the swearing-in all our problems will be solved in Ekiti. The expectation was so high.

Don't blame us... Fayemi during his campaign once told us that Ekiti is not poor that we have what it takes to make everybody happy.

U guys need to see the mammoth crowd that witnessed his swearing-in besides NNPC mega station along Iworoko-Ado Road.

People trekked all the way from Odo-Ado, Ajilosun, Basiri down to see Ilufemiloye.

Across all the 16 LGs, people were mobilised to catch the glimpse of "Ore Obama" that is Barrack Obama's friend.

There were rumours that the Jeep he used for that swearing-in was bought by either MOB or Ojudu (nah rumour ooo).

Fast forward to 2014, same man that was so loved and cherished, suddenly lost in all the 16 Local governments. I mean 16-0.

Why? How? Kilode? Kilosele?

For some of us who are students of politics with unbiased mind knew Fayemi will lose that election but none of us see that 16-0 coming.

It was a shocked. Fayemi himself, i am very sure could not believe it. He had to concede as early as possible when the result was out.

Why 16-0? Why that heavy defeat by an incumbent Governor for that matter?

So many things struck my mind. I began to ask questions.

The first thing i learnt was that Fayemi betrayed some of those 13 Honorables that stood for him when he was battling with Tribunal and Court of Appeal.

I learnt that immediately he became the governor, the approached him to give them automatic ticket for 2nd term.

They argued that they could not achieved much cos of how Oni frustrated them. Also, they contributed heavily to JKF's success at the re-run, tribunal and CoA. So, it is time for JKF to support their 2nd term bid.

However, i learnt that JKF asked them to go into primary election and whoever wins, will get his support.
Primary were conducted, some of the 13members won but JKF deprived them of their tickets except for Churchil and Hon Odeyemi (Hope i am right with odeyemi)

Churchil was able to scaled through cos of his affiliations with Ojudu while Odeyemi got the support via the chairman of ACN then.

Well, the rest can go to hell. That was the beginning of JKF's palava.

Yes, i learnt there were attempt to console some of the aggrieved 13 Honorables with some appointment which they rejected especially for those that won the primary. They insisted on their mandate but was rejected by JKF.

Well, JKF went into 20111 election not as a candidate because he took oath of office in 2010. But because he was still popular then, ACN won majority in the House of Assembly.

Sadly, some of those 13 aggrieved members waited patiently till 2014 to pay back JKF in his own coin.

That is one issue.

But the biggest issue was that of the face of between MOB-Fayemi. That was the real battle between friends who became enemies over night.

Lemme explain.

Dont forget, MOB was one of those strong politicians that facilitated the emergence of JKF into Ekiti politics. In fact they are close friends and ally. There were even rumours that JKF promised to do one term and handover to MOB. How true it is, we dont know.

Trouble started when we began to observed MOB's posters for Governorship election as at the time Fayemi was waiting for CoA judgement in Ilorin in 2010. For me, MOB was looking ahead of 2011 and maybe did not envisage that JKF might win the case.

Gbam!! Fayemi won the case. MOB had no choice than to change his posters from Governor to Senate.

However, those in JKF's camp felt MOB did stay true to the course and had no reason to start campaigning for the governorship election when they awaits CoA judgement.

They vowed to reply him during the ACN senatorial primary election. MOB defied all odds. Rumours had it that he was actually leading before the result was canceled. Subsequently, OJudu from Ado wqs given the ticket.

That was it. JKF and MOB became sworn enemies. They could not see eye to eye. MOB insisted on his mandate but JKF supported Ojudu's candidacy.

MOB was said to leave as that time but for the timely intervention of Jagaban Bola Ahmed Tinubu/Baba Akande

MOB was consoled with House of Rep members so as not to leave the party. After so much consultations, MOB accepted the offer. Thus, Ojudu became the Senator, MOB the HoR and JKF d governor. But forget it, there was the end of their friendship

As early as 2012, MOB became the major critics of JKF's government that u will think he is a member of PDP. He began to expose some of the dealings of JKF. He set up his Bibire Coalition across the 16 LGs

Most of us knew MOB was no longer with ACN. It was just a matter of time of when he will leave the broom family. Attempts by the leadership of the party both at the state and national level to resolve the matter between MOB/JKF was effort in futility.

Build up to the 2013 ACN primary election, MOB started campaigning and that he wont step down. The leadership of the party in the state made the first and greatest mistake of their life. They insisted on automatic ticket for JKF.

MOB insisted on the party to conduct primary election. I remembered vividly that Jagaban came to Ekiti during this period to resolve the matter. MOB insisted on primary why the party insisted on automatic ticket for JKF.

Lobatan.

MOB left for Labour party.

MOB left with some followers who actually worked for JKF in 2007.

Now, JKF had lost

1. Some 13members that stood and fought for his mandate

2. He has lost an ally, a great friend and a big mobilizer in MOB

I dey come.

Gradually, just like emperor Fayose, Fayemi was also losing his foot soldiers. In fact, that of the MOB was the big issue. MOB is a game changer. His daily criticisms and whistle blowing of some of the dealings of the govt especially on SUBEB fundings caused lot of problem 4 JKF.

In fact, the day MOB left, ACN knew somebody left. U guys need to see the crowd that greeted his declaration.

But the biggest issue for JKF has to do with workers and teachers.

Two major policies caused the biggest kasala for JKF.

1. The issue of promotion exams was one big problem.

2. But the introduction Teachers Development Needs Assessment to test teacher's competence which i felt was badly managed caused JKF a lot in 2014.

Three times, he tried to force the teachers to write the exam, the three times he failed. The battle line was drawn between him and the teachers. Attempt to persuade the teachers during the campaign that he would not continue the test was seen as mere political promise.

Attempt to even pay the new Teachers' Salary Structure barely a month to the election was also seen as a political gimmicks.

Fayemi had lost the workers.

Another factor was the issue of Ekiti State University school fees. During his inauguration, JKF promised to slash the school fees to 50k. This was greeted wit wide jubilations among the students. They were so happy.

Sadly, while the authority pegged the tuition fees at 50k, other charges were hiked thereby leading to almost 100% increase in the school fees. In fact, the students who are mostly youth became angry and promised to pay back.

In just 3years, ILUFEMILOYE became FAYEHUN.

In fact, the attempt by the school authority to force the students to pay tuition fee at once was greeted with protest and aluta. Twice, the school was closed. Parents who were mostly civil servants became angry. All in just 3years, Fayemi lost his goodwill.

Then comes the emergence of Osoko Fayose Ayodele Peter the Rock.

His emergence as PDP candidates was greeted with so much joy and celebrations. All of a sudden, the teachers remembered how Peteru used to celebrate workers day by dolling our cars.

The workers remembered how Fayose was so friendly and relate with them. The Okada riders suddenly remembered how Fayose used to ride Okada with them. The artisans suddenly remembered how Fayose will turn up at their events.

Game changer.
Osokomole ti de!!!

The common on the streets suddenly remembered how Fayose used to go to any naming ceremony, eats and dance with them. They could not find that in Fayehun any longer. Fayehun (JKF) as he was called then had lost out. It was evident except for his demoralised foot soldiers.

Fayose became the talk of the town. And trust me, the lousy man started lashing on JKF. The issue of Ekiti debt became the topic for election.

"Ekiti ti je gbese"

In fact, JKF was alleged to have built one big University in Ghana. The rumours was widely believed up till date.

The social life of JFK's wife became another subject matter. His wife was now called "Bisi omologbalogba" because of how she used to danced to that famous Olamide's "Ko duro soke" song.

Ekiti people distaste arrogance and pride. They felt the first lady was too proud. All these became issues in 2014. Fayemi had lost his goodwill.

Again, the lavish lifestyle of some of his key aides like Baba Adaramodu (chief of staff) and the famous Jaru was another talk of the town. During that period, just go to meltingpoint along Adebayo-Adehun road, u will see the life style of some of JKF's aides.

Folks became angry. Angry in the sense that a govt they thought will be friend of the masses is nothing but an 'elitist" govt.

They saw Fayose as the friend of the "mekunnu". That was it. That was how Fayemi lost it.

Analysts have attributed Federal might in 2014 to why Fayemi lost woefully. I beg to disagree a little bit. Fayemi had lost that election before that day. Ekiti people simply came out to officially announced it.

But 16-0? Maybe yes. May be No.

So Fayemi lost and the rest was history. He became Minister after APC won in 2015. Again for me, since he became Minister, JKF had not really work on this perceptions Ekiti people have against him in 2014.

I know some of his strong followers will disagree with me here but i will speak the truth. This is not the same Fayemi of 2014. This is not the same Ilufemiloye we once called "Ore Obama".

During the course of this last election, i was confronted with some questions that i myself could not answer. E g. "for 3years as minister, what has he done with mineral resources in Ekiti"

The issue of teachers assessment tests plus the fear of workers being sacked became issue. Workers can't really know his mindset and i think those that really manage JKF during the last election did not really do well.

The fear of banning Okada ridera which was subject matter in 2014 became another issue. Okada riders were brainwashed by Fayose that if they vote JKF, he will ban them. Those ones too blocked his convoy from assessing the bridge at Ojumose.

Then the issue of herdsmen became another issue. Fayose made it a campaign issue that a vote for JKF is a vote for herdsmen attacks in Ekiti. Religion sets in. Emotions set in.

Therefore, JKF started battling with perception issues in the just concluded election. People were so skeptical about what he is coming back with. I think his media aides have a whole lot of work to do right now.

So the election was simply between Eleka (Fayose's anointed candidate) who seems not to be in charge of his campaign team, who seems to be a shadow of himself. Who relied heavily on OMM structure and JKF who is still battling with acceptability issue

Again, the civil servants who normally give their bloc votes to a particular candidate were now divided. To support Eleka whose boss is owing backlogs of salaries or JKF who they think will sack them if he wins.

What u should expect is a close election

The two candidates did not really appeal to the conscience of the people. The other forces from other parties are just marking attendance.

The election could have gone either side. PDP or APC. And most of us could not even predict anything as at eve of the election. It was a close contest. We even called it 50/50 in Ekiti and there u have it.

Thanks.