1/ Someone poke holes in this for me, if you can. Right now we have:
- Thousands of cars just sitting in storage.
- Cars at stores that have been there for weeks/months.
- Said stores are increasingly filling up with with cars to brink of capacity.
- Tesla is now advertising.
- Thousands of cars just sitting in storage.
- Cars at stores that have been there for weeks/months.
- Said stores are increasingly filling up with with cars to brink of capacity.
- Tesla is now advertising.
2/ - Tesla just began hiring at a call center in Las Vegas which is described as "communicate with current and PROSPECTIVE buyers"
- TMC Delivery tracker numbers are still very, suspiciously low.
- People are reporting initial order to delivery times as low as 2 to 3 weeks.
- TMC Delivery tracker numbers are still very, suspiciously low.
- People are reporting initial order to delivery times as low as 2 to 3 weeks.
3/ Based on this, here is my rough timeline of events that have led us here.
- Production increases in spring, Tesla begins inviting more and more to configure. But the conversion rate sucks, and most people who do configure decline expensive upgrade packages and options.
- Production increases in spring, Tesla begins inviting more and more to configure. But the conversion rate sucks, and most people who do configure decline expensive upgrade packages and options.
4/ - Can't stop won't stop. Production continues "ramping", since there's now a prisoner's dilemma between a crappy conversion rate and the production rate; both have to appear good or both will suffer. And there's already huge pressure for "5K a week".
5/ - More and more are invited to configure and the conversion rate continues to dwindle, so the order book is opened to anyone and everyone (July 10), with Tesla probably expecting a flood of orders, but it doesn't happen. Darn. Still need to keep production numbers up though...
6/ - Shortly after this, Musk has a series of Twitter scandals (GOP $, Thailand) that probably takes a good chunk out of the remaining 35k reservation holders and possibly nets some $3500 cancellations for cars that are in the process of being built or even in transit.
7/ - Still, they continue to pump out cars, with many going to Lathrop, Burbank, and god knows where else. There's not room enough at dealerships, and evidence suggests that dealers are already sitting on some amount of M3s as straight up inventory.
8/ - People begin reporting that they've received unsolicited promotional emails from Tesla, letting them know the M3 is available to order right now (advertising, unheard of until now) plus the new sales call center jobs...
9/ All of this in the big picture leads me to believe that Tesla has not only exhausted demand, but is now sitting on a significant amount of inventory (saleable or not), hence the last minute lease of the Lathrop lot. They needed somewhere to stuff cars. It's a classic channel
10/ stuffing play, at least as far as Q2 goes. Now It's a mexican standoff between not being able to produce the 35k base model, needing to keep production numbers up for appearances, and not being able to disclose the reservation book. What I like about this thesis is the
11/ practicality of it and the amount of evidence that supports it. It doesn't need any wild conspiracy theories, and it's already been done in the past with Servergy, as @IsTeslaWorth0 pointed out. I like simpler explanations because they're usually right. Alright, poke away.
So, the common hole being poked is that it's simply a logistics issue, but this doesn't explain the cars sitting on dealer lots for weeks and even months.
