A few thoughts near the end of a week in Zimbabwe ...
1. The aim for Mnangagwa and his allies was to two-fold. (A) To win the elections. (B) To do so in a manner endorsed by other countries. A + B = power + $$$
2. Mnangagwa achieved A. He won the presidency without the need for a run-off. Zanu-PF won a two-thirds majority in parliament.
3. But Zanu-PF has not achieved B. The count is not the main issue. The samples by ZESN, an independent NGO, cannot prove that the count was rigged. Full disclosure of all the polling station results is for the birds.
4. More important is the various uses of state power before and after the vote -- intimidating/bribing voters in the run-up, killing people on August 1st. Neither suggests an elite that has changed. Both were condemned by the EU and US.
5. What does this week mean for the normalisation of the Zim economy? It probably means the US, especially, will be more sceptical when looking at signs of reform. But I don’t think it means the door is closed on a return to the IMF.
6. Why? There is a common desire to bring Zim in from the cold, and a sense that isolation did not work. Countries such as Britain have already made their decision.
7. Ultimately it will depend on whether Mnangagwa means it when he says Zim is open for business. He will need to show progress on paying off arrears, trimming the budget, and sorting out the currency mess.
8. Some will say that the events of this week -- and the slow progress on reform up until now -- show that this won’t happen. Others argue that Mnangagwa has no other option.
9. I don’t know what will happen. But Mnangagwa has a huge task ahead. And the events of this week have made it harder.
Incidentally I wrote up these thoughts this morning for the paper: economist.com/middle-east-an… via @TheEconomist
