@ChristieKngstn @VMorganSchmidt @D_LittleproudMP @farmingforever @BZELandUse NFF talk a big game but no plan to get there. None of their cell-grazing/HM trials have demonstrated simultaneous lower emissions & increase in production levels. @UNFCCC method used in AGEIS inventory is VERY deficient in aggregating Ag sector emissions which takes time… [cont]
@ChristieKngstn @VMorganSchmidt @D_LittleproudMP @farmingforever @BZELandUse @UNFCCC 2. …to explain. The @BZELandUse Report went to great effort to comprehensively assess all Ag emissions not just those counted by AGEIS system. They find using GWP20 (which is relevant when a lot of SLCPs r in the mix) Ag is 54% of national emissions. Using GWP100 soon be ~50%.
@ChristieKngstn @VMorganSchmidt @D_LittleproudMP @farmingforever @BZELandUse @UNFCCC 3. So using AGEIS/UNFCCC methods Ag is 14% b/c we use aggregation slight of hand to hide the largest part of Ag emissions, land clearing out of the picture. Here's a few different ways of presenting exactly the same data using different categorisation methods…all using GWP₁₀₀ 
@ChristieKngstn @VMorganSchmidt @D_LittleproudMP @farmingforever @BZELandUse @UNFCCC 4. See last graph adding Land Clearing to Ag assigned to LULUCF sector in AGEIS method back into Ag where it belongs for an accurate picture. Now lets look at using ANZSIC industry classification system which is more representative. A different story for Ag is emerging. GWP₁₀₀
@ChristieKngstn @VMorganSchmidt @D_LittleproudMP @farmingforever @BZELandUse @UNFCCC 5. Where can all these emissions be coming from? Is there disaggregated data? Yes there is. Again using GWP₁₀₀ (obscures methane etc) we see land clearing is big source of emissions next is enteric fermentation. ~90% of Ag emissions associated with livestock in northern Aust.
@ChristieKngstn @VMorganSchmidt @D_LittleproudMP @farmingforever @BZELandUse @UNFCCC 6. Especially QLD where Campbell Newman legislated to gut Federal Govt land clearing prevention laws that had been in place around a decade. Led to opportunistic clearing on a frighten scale, now NSW up to same tricks even before new legislation thru parliament big clearing.
@ChristieKngstn @VMorganSchmidt @D_LittleproudMP @farmingforever @BZELandUse @UNFCCC 7. Soil carbon loss is a big part of the land clearing emissions picture. Contrary to USA natural plains, deep-rooted grasses lock up significants amount of carbon, in Australia our woodlands and forests lock up vastly more per hectare than when converted to pasture.
@ChristieKngstn @VMorganSchmidt @D_LittleproudMP @farmingforever @BZELandUse @UNFCCC 8. So what about this GWP₁₀₀ vs GWP₂₀ difference I've been going on about? It's the time frame in which the impact of any given GHG is measured for it's warming/cooling impact on atmosphere. Methane using 100 yr timeframe (GWP₁₀₀) is 28x as potent (by weight) as CO₂…
@ChristieKngstn @VMorganSchmidt @D_LittleproudMP @farmingforever @BZELandUse @UNFCCC 9. however using a 20 yr timeframe, methane 4eg, which only lives in the atmosphere for ~12 yrs (half life of 7 yrs) has a greater radiative forcing (RF) impact b/c for ~10 of those 20 yrs it's methane b4 becoming CO₂ so over 20 yrs methane is 86x as potent as CO₂. There's more
@ChristieKngstn @VMorganSchmidt @D_LittleproudMP @farmingforever @BZELandUse @UNFCCC 10. Methane has a role as a precursor to tropospheric ozone, itself a potent GHG warming agent so including that impact also over 20 yrs methane rises to 105x the impact of CO₂. This is where the “methane is a natural C cycle” argument used by obfuscatory types comes unstuck.
@ChristieKngstn @VMorganSchmidt @D_LittleproudMP @farmingforever @BZELandUse @UNFCCC 11. For each CO₂ molecule converted to cellulose/grass, if then converted to methane in ruminant digestion it needs 105 more CO₂ molecules sequestered & left in soil at same time to make this a “carbon neutral” cycle in “natural equilibrium” of GHG emissions 2 sequestration.
@ChristieKngstn @VMorganSchmidt @D_LittleproudMP @farmingforever @BZELandUse @UNFCCC 12. While methane (CH₄) is often classed in IPCC AR5 as a long-lived GHG, it's also the longest of what are known as Short Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP) & Carbon Monoxide (CO) is another produced in Ag sector especially in savannah burning and burning woodpiles on cleared land
@ChristieKngstn @VMorganSchmidt @D_LittleproudMP @farmingforever @BZELandUse @UNFCCC 13. So how does accounting emissions with a 20 yr, GWP₂₀ timeframe compare with using a 100 year timeframe, GWP₁₀₀? Firstly emissions in all sectors rise as a CO₂-e index. Ag however has a disproportionate share of SLCPs, so as a proportion of Australian emissions top >50%!
@ChristieKngstn @VMorganSchmidt @D_LittleproudMP @farmingforever @BZELandUse @UNFCCC 14. We think emissions in the Stationary energy sector is cheapest place to reduce emissions b/c wind and solar are cheaper than new coal & gas, but as RE penetration goes >80% a cost premium comes in2 play due 2 cost of large scale storage. Other sectors then get more scrutiny…
@ChristieKngstn @VMorganSchmidt @D_LittleproudMP @farmingforever @BZELandUse @UNFCCC 15. If regenerative ag can scientifically demonstrate & convincingly hold negative emissions over the long term (this will take many years unfortunately & needs way more govt spending assigned to it) it becomes a lower cost form emissions reduction and be in mix for subsidies…
@ChristieKngstn @VMorganSchmidt @D_LittleproudMP @farmingforever @BZELandUse @UNFCCC 16. Finally here's a top level look from @BZELandUse Report how agriculture in Australia can get to (net) zero emissions, will take money from outside sector and/or a complete transformation of how ag is done in Australia. Meat & dairy commodity prices would be impacted I expect.
@ChristieKngstn @VMorganSchmidt @D_LittleproudMP @farmingforever @BZELandUse @UNFCCC hey there @threadreaderapp unroll pls
